Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens on the Orioles’ FA Needs

[Frobby]

Baltimore Orioles
Primary: Most Everything
Secondary: Bargains

There aren’t many positions where the Orioles couldn’t use an upgrade. Center field and catcher look set for years to come, but everywhere else features either a short-term option or not much of an option at all. Ryan Mountcastle looks like a keeper, as does John Means, but Mountcastle can play in any of several spots and teams need more than one starting pitcher.

 

To be clear, I don’t think the Orioles should actually try to upgrade every slot. They aren’t trying to make the playoffs in 2022, or even 2023 unless things break particularly well for them this year. They also don’t feel like they’re one cornerstone free agent away from competing; making signings a year too early is all well and good, but with how deeply the Orioles have been stripped down to the studs, we’re talking more than a year, and maybe more than two years.

Instead, I’d be hunting for bargains. Every year, the free agency market mostly works well at matching team needs and available players. Inevitably, though, a few matches don’t quite pan out. Maybe a team doesn’t yet know how much pitching depth they’ll need, or a position that has little scarcity in February will become pivotal after a few injuries. Maybe a contending team would prefer to trade prospects over money to fill a hole, which results in their desired player signing for a pittance elsewhere. The Orioles should monitor this space, because signing one of those players and trading them in six months could be a boon to their rebuild.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/offseason-shopping-lists-al-and-nl-east/

[interloper]

A few ideas of actual player names would have been nice here. But overall yeah the Os will be bargain hunting. Which would actually qualify as a step up from what they've been doing the last two years which is simply making sure they can field a team. Think back to the Os signing Cruz for 1/$8 at the end of the 2014 off-season. I could see them doing a similar deal if someone slips that far. A step up from Maikel and Harvey .

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

A few ideas of actual player names would have been nice here. But overall yeah the Os will be bargain hunting. Which would actually qualify as a step up from what they've been doing the last two years which is simply making sure they can field a team. Think the Os signing Cruz for 1/$8 at the end of the off-season. I could see them doing a similar deal if someone slips that far. A step up from Maikel and Harvey.

Where does Cruz fit w/ Mountcastle and Mancini on the team?  1B/DH is one of the few spots where the O's don't need help.  The O's definitely need at least one free agent starter.  I don't want another year of endless cycling of marginal prospects/repeated failure starters.  A reliable reliever and 2B or 3B would be nice too.  I think Urias is a dependable starter, but I think the other infield options are marginal/utility players. 

[Moose Milligan]

No reason not to fill as many holes as they can.  I don't agree with his logic.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Where does Cruz fit w/ Mountcastle and Mancini on the team?  1B/DH is one of the few spots where the O's don't need help.  The O's definitely need at least one free agent starter.  I don't want another year of endless cycling of marginal prospects/repeated failure starters.  A reliable reliever and 2B or 3B would be nice too.  I think Urias is a dependable starter, but I think the other infield options are marginal/utility players. 

I think the 2014 Cruz deal was just an example, not a call for Cruz now.

I agree that a Scott Feldman to the Astros type deal should be in order. Not top of the market SP, but someone who can come in and solidify at least one of the spots with league average-type pitching, eat innings, and give our developing offense a chance to win the game.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

No reason not to fill as many holes as they can.  I don't agree with his logic.  

I think there's a nuance to it. You certainly have a lot of holes, but you don't want to potentially block talent that's coming through the system with expensive FA.

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think there's a nuance to it. You certainly have a lot of holes, but you don't want to potentially block talent that's coming through the system with expensive FA.

No one's blocking AR.  No one's blocking G-Rod or Hall.

Sign a guy, trade him if you don't want to block someone coming up.

[interloper]

 

23 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Where does Cruz fit w/ Mountcastle and Mancini on the team?  1B/DH is one of the few spots where the O's don't need help.  The O's definitely need at least one free agent starter.  I don't want another year of endless cycling of marginal prospects/repeated failure starters.  A reliable reliever and 2B or 3B would be nice too.  I think Urias is a dependable starter, but I think the other infield options are marginal/utility players. 

 

14 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think the 2014 Cruz deal was just an example, not a call for Cruz now.

I agree that a Scott Feldman to the Astros type deal should be in order. Not top of the market SP, but someone who can come in and solidify at least one of the spots with league average-type pitching, eat innings, and give our developing offense a chance to win the game.

Yeah it was just an example of the type of "bargain" hunting I'd like to see, like how the O's signed Cruz for peanuts in 2014. 

[UMDTerrapins]

I'm pretty open-minded, but there is no way to change my mind that we should be pursuing a starter from outside the organization who profiles as a #2 or #3. Pair such a guy with Means/Rodriguez and you significantly alter the time frame it will take us to emerge from the rebuild. Waiting for us to become competitive before making such an acquisition is inverted logic to me. 

[Orioles0615]

10 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I'm pretty open-minded, but there is no way to change my mind that we should be pursuing a starter from outside the organization who profiles as a #2 or #3. Pair such a guy with Means/Rodriguez and you significantly alter the time frame it will take us to emerge from the rebuild. Waiting for us to become competitive before making such an acquisition is inverted logic to me. 

Agreed. The whole not trying to compete in 2022 and 2023 makes no sense to me.  They say that now, and then when we lose 100 games the next year and the year after that they will say the same thing. Its just kicking the can down the road. You don't have to go out and spend 300 million but you have to go out and improve the team from the outside with viable players

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Agreed. The whole not trying to compete in 2022 and 2023 makes no sense to me.  They say that now, and then when we lose 100 games the next year and the year after that they will say the same thing. Its just kicking the can down the road. You don't have to go out and spend 300 million but you have to go out and improve the team from the outside with viable players

I don't see any excuse for why the team can't at least attempt to be competitive in 2023.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Agreed. The whole not trying to compete in 2022 and 2023 makes no sense to me.  They say that now, and then when we lose 100 games the next year and the year after that they will say the same thing. Its just kicking the can down the road. You don't have to go out and spend 300 million but you have to go out and improve the team from the outside with viable players

I think most people are ready to see at least some modest spending on upgrades.  Not necessarily a 5/$75 mm deal, but signing players who are more reliable than the types you get on MiL deals or for $1-2 mm.   Question is, can we find these guys and convince them to sign here?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I think most people are ready to see at least some modest spending on upgrades.  Not necessarily a 5/$75 mm deal, but signing players who are more reliable than the types you get on MiL deals or for $1-2 mm.   Question is, can we find these guys and convince them to sign here?

The question is, is ownership ready to agree to some modest spending on upgrades?

[Orioles0615]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think most people are ready to see at least some modest spending on upgrades.  Not necessarily a 5/$75 mm deal, but signing players who are more reliable than the types you get on MiL deals or for $1-2 mm.   Question is, can we find these guys and convince them to sign here?

Yea that's always the other side of the coin which can be equally as frustrating. At this point I would be excited to see  one of those reports after a guy signs with another team that says Orioles had such and such offer.

[Sports Guy]

Did they actually pay him to write that bs?