Orioles looking to trade Means?

[oriole]

If he wants to trade Means, then Mullins has to go too. 
 

What is frustrating is that even just a little effort to actually bolster the MLB club and some money spent to get us back around where we were during the Buck era then this team could be competitive. Sign a decent SS and SP and let the young guys start their career in a competitive atmosphere and hopefully by 2023 with some experience by the prospects then we could really see a good team. 
 

instead it’s a minimum of two more years of obscurity while wasting the early years of hopefully great players like Rodriguez and Rutschman. Half of Mountcastles time with the O’s will already be a complete waste. I really hate the way Elias is elongating the rebuild at every turn. Will it eventually be effective? Yeah, I think so. But it could be equally effective while also not being so dismal with just a tiny bit of effort put into the ML roster. I guess he really wants those high draft picks where he won’t pick the best player available anyways? 

[interloper]

I find it so interesting that some of the people on this board routinely ignore whole aspects of what Elias has done so far in order to further this narrative that he's an ownership pawn whose sole job is to cut costs. 

The mental gymnastics required to actually believe that is pretty wild. I don't see how you can be intellectually honest and actually believe that to be the case. 

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

So Maikel Franco, Brian Holiday, Matt Harvey, and Fernando Abad.  Would be pathetic if this offseason is a carbon copy, or close to, the 2020-21 offseason.  

I don't understand why rebuilding and developing talent from within PRECLUDES the team from adding actual good players.  I really don't get that strategy at all. 

The idea that people buy into the idea that we have to suck for 4-6 years to achieve long term success is absolutely amazing.  Credit to this organizations to be able to sell this nonsense to their fans.  They can eat up tons of profits and don’t have to try to win at all.

Its brilliant on there part. 

[HowAboutThat]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins will be just entering prime next year?   I’d say there’s a very good chance he will never approach 5.7 rWAR again.   I like him and generally agree with what you’re saying but I personally don’t believe he’s going to equal or improve upon his 2021 season anytime soon.  I’d be happy to be proven wrong about that.   

Mullins can drop back to 3.5-4 WAR and still be incredibly valuable. Corey Dickerson was 26 and a solid 118 hitter when he was traded for a solid Starter and a good reliever, but he was mainly a COF and had neither the speed, power nor defense that Mullins offers. I am not sure who is the perfect comp for Mullins, but he should be quite desirable, and at least the Guardians( first time I’ve used that name) should be happy to pay up for him in nice tasty pitching. 

 

[NCRaven]

I don't think that anyone who played for the ML team last year is off limits in a trade.  Except Mountcastle and that's because I have a major man crush on him, I freely admit.  In the minors, only Rodriguez, Rutschman and DL Hall would be off limits for me.  It would be criminal negligence for Elias not to at least see what could be had for both Means and Mullins.  And Mancini.  And Santander.  And Sulser.  And, I think that I have now run out of players with trade value.  I think it would take a lot to trade either of the first two.  But, if you're offered a lot, particularly if the players are ready to contribute soon, you make the deal and figure the rest out.  Maybe you get a younger CF'er for Means and that make a Mullins trade more palatable.  Maybe you get two of Cabrera, Meyer or Sanchez from Miami for Mullins and one of the lesser pitching prospects (i.e., anyone below Rodriquez and Hall).  If so, we get younger players at positions of need with more team control and payroll flexibility.  Nothing is off limits.  Except Mountcastle.  Did a ever mention he's a beast?

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And that’s bs Tony.  The players and money are there to push for 500 this year and contend in 2023.  You have Adley and GRod ready to come up now.  Stowers can potentially be right behind them.  You have some other pitchers that could help on the staff.  Add a few good offensive players and 1-2 starters and this team can be good and that is without having a payroll of even 80 million.  
 

Covid is a cop out.  It was great for the Angelos family because they can put things off another year in “hopes” that dear old dad passes away and they can sell and not get crushed in inheritance taxes.

Ok, forget about COVID, let's just look at what we have right now coming up this year. Oh, and I'm not taking up for the Angelos family here, I'm just saying what I see on the horizon.

I wish it was just, add a few players and this team will be good but we're talking about a team that was pathetic in every way last year.

Who is part of true future contending team that was on the team last year?
1B: Mountcastle
LF- Hays (Maybe)
CF: Mullins
SP: Lowther (Maybe)
SP/RP: Tyler Wells
RP: Akin (Maybe)
SP/RP -Zimmermann (maybe)

Who are we adding from the farm?

2022:
C - Rutschman
RF - Stowers (Maybe at some point)
SP - Grayson Rodriguez (At some point)
SP/RP - Kyle Bradish (At some point)
RP - Baumann (at some point by could make team out of spring training if they decide he's a reliever)
RP - Felix Bautista (should make team out of spring training)
SP - Rom (Potentially by end)

2023: 
SP: DL Hall
2B - Vavra (maybe)
3B - Henderson (maybe)
LF/RF/CF: Cowser
3B -  Mayo (potentially if he makes it to AA in 2022)
SS/2B - Westburg
RF - Kjerstad (assuming he's healthy and returns to the player he was suppose to be when drafted)
SP - Pinto (Maybe)
SS/2B - Ortiz (maybe)
SP - Brandon Young (maybe)
Potentially a 2022 draft pick

That's still a lot of holes that they will need to trade or sign free agents to fill. 

If these guys come up and are good, 2023 looks like the year to sign or trade for SP help. 

I do think the Orioles can be better in 2022, but start to consider contending by 2023. By 2024 they should be a contender or the rebuild has failed.

 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Mullins will be 29 in 2024 and he doesn't have a skill set that generally erodes in the early 30s. I think he will be fine. 

Hays is not a center fielder really either, though he can play there like Cowser. Hays' sprint speed has fallen from 91.7 percentile to 58.4 in the last four years and his reaction and burst speeds have fallen off to below average as well. Mullins overs 34.6 ft/per second while Hays covers 31.7 ft/per second. Mullins had a 10 Outs above average rating in center field while Hays ha a -1 in LF. So if you want a well below average center fielder, then you play Hays there.

I don't have the statcast info on Cowser so I'm going by what I saw which admittedly is on video where it's tough to see jumps, but he just doesn't show me that top sprint speed you'd really want out there. His routes need some work as well but he's still new to pro ball so I can't ding him too much on that.

I think you underestimate what Mullins brings as I don't think you are a true believer of his breakout season.

 

Well I don’t think Mullins is a 5+ WAR guy but I do think he can be a 3 WAR guy.  He’s valuable but as he gets older and loses some speed, his defense (which is good but not great) may take him out of CF and his SB abilities go down.  
 

Im not that interested in paying him a lot of money and relying on him at that age.  
 

 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The idea that people buy into the idea that we have to suck for 4-6 years to achieve long term success is absolutely amazing.  Credit to this organizations to be able to sell this nonsense to their fans.  They can eat up tons of profits and don’t have to try to win at all.

Its brilliant on there part. 

In my opinion Elias is doing what he thinks needs to be done to be competitive over the long term.  I don’t think it has anything to do with “selling” things to the fans.   In case you haven’t noticed, attendance has been dropping like a rock, as well as TV ratings.  Fans don’t like watching a losing team, especially one that’s losing 2/3 of the time or more.    

Whether Elias’ approach is right or wrong is subject to debate, but I completely disagree with your narrative that this is some plot by the team’s owners to fool the fans about what they’re doing.   
 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

In my opinion Elias is doing what he thinks needs to be done to be competitive over the long term.  I don’t think it has anything to do with “selling” things to the fans.   In case you haven’t noticed, attendance has been dropping like a rock, as well as TV ratings.  Fans don’t like watching a losing team, especially one that’s losing 2/3 of the time or more.    

Whether Elias’ approach is right or wrong is subject to debate, but I completely disagree with your narrative that this is some plot by the team’s owners to fool the fans about what they’re doing.   
 

Lol..what do you think it is Frobby?

You are a smart guy.  You tell me what the Os are accomplishing by doing this rebuild that they can’t do if they were trying to win with a better product?

Outside of a higher draft pick, what has Elias done that couldn’t happen if they were trying to win? 
 

Why can so many teams throughout MLB build a farm system, spend internationally, draft and develop well, all the while still winning but yet it’s ok for the Os to take their time doing it?

Explain that to me.  Why are they different?  

[HowAboutThat]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I don’t think Mullins is a 5+ WAR guy but I do think he can be a 3 WAR guy.  He’s valuable but as he gets older and loses some speed, his defense (which is good but not great) may take him out of CF and his SB abilities go down.  
 

Im not that interested in paying him a lot of money and relying on him at that age.  
 

 

Baseball Savant says Mullins is one of the best centerfielders in baseball, I think he was fourth out of 36? He doesn’t have the greatest arm in the world, but few people get to the ball and catch the ball like he does. 
When he’s 32 he may move to left field, but then he’ll be a fine leftfielder. I don’t think there are any complaints to make about his defense except a weak throwing arm.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In my opinion Elias is doing what he thinks needs to be done to be competitive over the long term.  I don’t think it has anything to do with “selling” things to the fans.   In case you haven’t noticed, attendance has been dropping like a rock, as well as TV ratings.  Fans don’t like watching a losing team, especially one that’s losing 2/3 of the time or more.    

Whether Elias’ approach is right or wrong is subject to debate, but I completely disagree with your narrative that this is some plot by the team’s owners to fool the fans about what they’re doing.   
 

Any rational person would think this. It's mind-numbing watching people actually convince themselves anything other than this is reality.

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins will be just entering prime next year?   I’d say there’s a very good chance he will never approach 5.7 rWAR again.   I like him and generally agree with what you’re saying but I personally don’t believe he’s going to equal or improve upon his 2021 season anytime soon.  I’d be happy to be proven wrong about that.   

Well, many studies have shown that a players prime is 27-31 years old for everything but spring speed which seems to top out at 22-23 and than gradually decline. Now that doesn't mean every player will follow that, and Mullins is an interesting case because of his complete breakout after dumping switch hitting. 

Mullins may not by a 5.7 rWAR again, but there's not a lot of signs that say he won't either. He was above average in every single category in expected stats, EV, barrel %, etc. Defensively he was elite and although his spring speed has fallen from  95.2 percentile to 85.9%, he's still an elite defender and base runner.

Mullins to me is a star and although I would listen to any offers for anyone, i would need to be blown away by an offer for Mullins before moving him.

[LookinUp]

Wow. Sorry it took so long for me to respond to this thread. I had to pick myself up off the floor. I must have fainted.

Am I reading this right? The O's want to trade a player too early instead of too late and SG's against it?  :thud: 

There I go again.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, forget about COVID, let's just look at what we have right now coming up this year. Oh, and I'm not taking up for the Angelos family here, I'm just saying what I see on the horizon.

I wish it was just, add a few players and this team will be good but we're talking about a team that was pathetic in every way last year.

Who is part of true future contending team that was on the team last year?
1B: Mountcastle
LF- Hays (Maybe)
CF: Mullins
SP: Lowther (Maybe)
SP/RP: Tyler Wells
RP: Akin (Maybe)
SP/RP -Zimmermann (maybe)

Who are we adding from the farm?

2022:
C - Rutschman
RF - Stowers (Maybe at some point)
SP - Grayson Rodriguez (At some point)
SP/RP - Kyle Bradish (At some point)
RP - Baumann (at some point by could make team out of spring training if they decide he's a reliever)
RP - Felix Bautista (should make team out of spring training)
SP - Rom (Potentially by end)

2023: 
SP: DL Hall
2B - Vavra (maybe)
3B - Henderson (maybe)
LF/RF/CF: Cowser
3B -  Mayo (potentially if he makes it to AA in 2022)
SS/2B - Westburg
RF - Kjerstad (assuming he's healthy and returns to the player he was suppose to be when drafted)
SP - Pinto (Maybe)
SS/2B - Ortiz (maybe)
SP - Brandon Young (maybe)
Potentially a 2022 draft pick

That's still a lot of holes that they will need to trade or sign free agents to fill. 

If these guys come up and are good, 2023 looks like the year to sign or trade for SP help. 

I do think the Orioles can be better in 2022, but start to consider contending by 2023. By 2024 they should be a contender or the rebuild has failed.

 

Yes, you add in those guys, make a few trades and spend some money you can have a 70-80 win team in 2022.  Notice, I’m not saying a contender.  I’m talking about a serviceable/respectable on field product and then you take the leap in 2023.

Im not talking about running the payroll to 120+M for 2022.  
 

I’m saying have a payroll similar to what the team had in the 2009-2011 area.  
 

None of this asking too much From them.

I think this could be a really exciting team in 2022, even if they only win 45% of their games.  But the Angelos family won’t let that happen.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, you add in those guys, make a few trades and spend some money you can have a 70-80 win team in 2022.  Notice, I’m not saying a contender.  I’m talking about a serviceable/respectable on field product and then you take the leap in 2023.

Im not talking about running the payroll to 120+M for 2022.  
 

I’m saying have a payroll similar to what the team had in the 2009-2011 area.  
 

None of this asking too much From them.

I think this could be a really exciting team in 2022, even if they only win 45% of their games.  But the Angelos family won’t let that happen.

I have zero issues with Elias going out and getting good stop gaps for 2B, SS, 3B, SPs and RPs, but who are they? Who will come here for a year or two and be good?

This goes back to trading Means. If they do, they have to get back young nearly ready SPs that will be ready by sometime in 2022 but good by 2023.