Pass on HS pitchers

[Ruzious]

On 11/30/2021 at 12:03 PM, Frobby said:

Another fun fact: Tripper Johnson was Ryan Mountcastle’s agent when he signed with the O’s.   

No truth to the rumor that the O's got Tripper Johnson mixed up with Chipper Jones when they picked Tripper in the first round to play third base.  

[Frobby]

By my count, here is our 1st round yield in the various categories through the 2016 draft (I'm excluding 2017-21 since we have top prospects from each of those classes who haven't reached the majors yet, but are likely to do so).

High school pitchers: 8 major leaguers out of 14 selected, for a total of 14.8 rWAR (Bundy is highest at 8.6)

High school hitters: 10 major leaguers out of 21 selected, for a total of 148.8 rWAR (Grich 71.0, Machado 45.4, Werth 29.2)

College pitchers: 9 major leaguers out of 17 selected, for a total of 153.2 rWAR (Mussina 82.8, McDonald 20.8, Harnisch 17.9, Gausman 16.9, Olson 12.8)

College hitters: 9 major leaguers out of 10 selected, for a total of 77.7 rWAR (Roberts 29.5, Wieters 18.2, Dauer 14.4)

Juco pitchers: 0 for 1

Juco hitters: 1 for 1, 33.6 rWAR (Markakis)

[now]

On 12/1/2021 at 1:20 PM, Frobby said:

By my count, here is our 1st round yield in the various categories through the 2016 draft (I'm excluding 2017-21 since we have top prospects from each of those classes who haven't reached the majors yet, but are likely to do so).

High school pitchers: 8 major leaguers out of 14 selected, for a total of 14.8 rWAR (Bundy is highest at 8.6)

High school hitters: 10 major leaguers out of 21 selected, for a total of 148.8 rWAR (Grich 71.0, Machado 45.4, Werth 29.2)

College pitchers: 9 major leaguers out of 17 selected, for a total of 153.2 rWAR (Mussina 82.8, McDonald 20.8, Harnisch 17.9, Gausman 16.9, Olson 12.8)

College hitters: 9 major leaguers out of 10 selected, for a total of 77.7 rWAR (Roberts 29.5, Wieters 18.2, Dauer 14.4)

Juco pitchers: 0 for 1

Juco hitters: 1 for 1, 33.6 rWAR (Markakis)

That's pretty illuminating. Here are some further numbers crunched from yours:

	Selected	MLB	% MLB	Tot rWAR	Avg rWAR	Avg rWAR
HSP	14	8	57%	14.8	1.1	1.9
HSH	21	10	48%	148.8	7.1	14.9
CP	17	9	53%	153.2	9.0	17.0
CH	10	9	90%	77.7	7.8	8.6

The last two columns are averages from the first two columns respectively.

The clearest results are the phenomenally high "floor" represented by college hitters; the abysmally low "ceiling" with high school pitchers; and the best overall outcomes, from draft to WAR, with HS hitters and college pitchers. Still, these are relatively small samples I suppose, with results heavily skewed in WAR by a few stars.