“Don’t worry, we will spend next year”

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

Let me comb over the Astros success rate for their previous draft classes. I’m curious to see the clip they are operating. I’m a tech guy and love the modern use of cameras coupled with real time results and analytics. It’s just a different way to train and focus on precisely what it takes to get better, every day. Guys like Kyle Tucker, altuve, Bergman, etc. it just seems like the Astros (and in turn the Orioles) have figured out the best way to project future talent and also propel them to get their faster and with greater accuracy in result. 

You can look here: 

 

[Explosivo]

1 minute ago, Absltgreek said:

You can't really compare the success the Astros have had with their hitters with the Orioles (yet). The Astros' players have made it to the majors and succeeded. While the O's players are doing very well in the minors, until they prove that success in the Majors, we really don't know how successful the program will be/is yet.

Yes, I am just looking at how they drafted in hope that those same results will be similar to what we can expect here in Birdland. Elias was there from 2012-2018. Obviously he whiffed on Aiken and Appel but he turned those whiffs into Bregman and Tucker. Not bad. 
first round Bregman - 2, Tucker - 5, Correa - 1,  McCullers - 41, Derek Fisher - 37, Daz Cameron - 37, Forrest Whitley - 17, J.B. Bukauskas - 15, Seth Beer (what a last name) - 28

Second Round - AJ Reed - 42, Big Tom Eschelman - 46, Ronnie Dawson - 61, joe Perez - 53, Corbin Martin - 56, J.J. matijevic - 75, Jayson Schroeder - 66

So just looking at the first two rounds… he hit gold on 4 out of 9 players. That’s not too shabby. Most of these guys have at least made it to the major league ranks so that’s encouraging as well I suppose.

here’s a breakdown of the top 20 Astros picks and the percentages those players made it to the majors:

2012 - 40%
2013 - 20%
2014 - 35%
2015 - 40%
2016 - 30%
2017 - 30%
2018 - 5%

Compare that to the Orioles

2012 - 25%
2013 - 45%
2014 - 25%
2015 - 35%
2016 - 10%
2017 - 10%
2018 - 0%
 

so that’s obviously a much higher success rate than the Orioles have had in the past. 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, so this checkbook opening up thing..I provided the list of impending FAs.  With what you know now, who on the list is worth spending on?

 

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The problem is, for this to work, they have to hit on most of their guys and that just isn’t reality.  Pitching isn’t looking good at all.  

The challenge, of course, is we have no idea how this year will go. With that said, I'd expect the O's to target outfield signings and maybe a middle infielder while trading away outfield prospects and infield prospects for pitching.

I'd much rather sign a mid-level hitting outfielder than a mid-level FA starter in terms of probability of getting my money's worth. I think the idea of targeting an Eovaldi or DeGrom just isn't realistic. We're more likely to make a Cleavinger deal like San Diego did previously.

[interloper]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

2 best FAs, if/when they opt out, are DeGrom And Boegarts.  How high are you going for them?  You giving DeGrom 40ish a year?  Going 7-10 years for Xander?  Of course, this assumes they even make it to free agency, which they may not.

If not them, who?  

It's a valid point, but there are a lot more SPs on that list than just DeGrom. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, interloper said:

It's a valid point, but there are a lot more SPs on that list than just DeGrom. 

Yea..just not really any good ones 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea..just not really any good ones 

I'd take Eovaldi, Taijuan Walker, Manaea... plenty of solid options. 

[interloper]

There's also some good relief options, could get a couple guys on the back end of their careers, but would still be a marked improvement. 

[big_sparxx]

So how much money should a last place team spend?

I'm not sure investing heavy at this point makes us contenders any time soon. The other question is, how does signing FAs stifle progress of up and coming talent.

I really need to see what this team is gonna look like fully loaded. We can debate their readiness until the cows come home, but we haven't committed to this process for this length of time to all of a sudden jam it up by signing players who are not part of the long term agenda.

[ChuckS]

I look at this as another rebuilding year.  I don't see the point of signing any top tier or even any mid tier free agents until we are ready to compete.  Would I like to see us spend a little more money than we have been on a few stop gap starters and infielders for 2022?  Sure.  But we are going to finish last in the AL East either way. 

The time to get angry will be next offseason, if we are still bargain hunting.  Then we'll know for certain whether or not Elias is hamstrung by ownership

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I look at this as another rebuilding year.  I don't see the point of signing any top tier or even any mid tier free agents until we are ready to compete.  Would I like to see us spend a little more money than we have been on a few stop gap starters and infielders for 2022?  Sure.  But we are going to finish last in the AL East either way. 

The time to get angry will be next offseason, if we are still bargain hunting.  Then we'll know for certain whether or not Elias is hamstrung by ownership

The point would be that a particular player is only going to be available at certain times.  For instance you might see a lot of premium shortstops on the market in a given year and none might be projected to be available in the year you are planning to be competitive.  So do you sign a guy a year or two before you are planning to be competitive, like the Padres did with Manny?   Or do you go forward with a hole in your lineup and unspent money in your pocket?

You can't just assume that the proper fit for players will magically be there when you want it to.

[ChuckS]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The point would be that a particular player is only going to be available at certain times.  For instance you might see a lot of premium shortstops on the market in a given year and none might be projected to be available in the year you are planning to be competitive.  So do you sign a guy a year or two before you are planning to be competitive, like the Padres did with Manny?   Or do you go forward with a hole in your lineup and unspent money in your pocket?

You can't just assume that the proper fit for players will magically be there when you want it to.

I don't think they need to all by signed in one offseason.  That would be ill-advised.  Fill a hole or two in 2022, one in 2023, and so on. 

As for shortstops, I think we will have a better idea after 2022 if we even need to spend on one.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I don't think they need to all by signed in one offseason.  That would be ill-advised.  Fill a hole or two in 2022, one in 2023, and so on. 

As for shortstops, I think we will have a better idea after 2022 if we even need to spend on one.  

You start filling holes that way and you risk having new holes open up on you. 

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You start filling holes that way and you risk having new holes open up on you. 

So you are counting on one big splash offseason?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ChuckS said:

So you are counting on one big splash offseason?

Not necessarily but I'd rather sign a guy a year early than have a hole I can't fill.

For instance I think the Padres made the right move with Machado.  Any issues they have had aren't because of him.

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not necessarily but I'd rather sign a guy a year early than have a hole I can't fill.

For instance I think the Padres made the right move with Machado.  Any issues they have had aren't because of him.

Part of the problem right now, is that we don't really know what holes we are going to have in 2023/2024.  The only holes I can say we will most definitely have is SP.   The prognosis is good in the OF, C, and 1B.  2B, SS, 3B are where the questions lie.  And you don't want to pay big for a SP when the years you are are most likely to get good value on the contract, are going to be losing years anyway.  I'm waiting to pay big on an IF.  After 2022 we should know what we have in Westburg, Henderson, Norby, maybe even Mayo as they hit the upper levels of the minors.