Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) thinks Orioles payroll probably $130-160 million by '24.

[waynebug]

I guess he thinks they won't spend until after 2023 and they won't spend ALL the money they will have saved since 2018.  He actually thought they could afford to go to $250 million, with all those savings.

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[Pickles]

I'll take the under.

[waroriole]

Who does he think we’re gonna spend that on?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

Who does he think we’re gonna spend that on?

Former Astros.

[MijiT88]

I honestly bet we give Adley an early deal if he shows to be the real thing. That might be part of that, and I bet ownership would go for giving a young guy money in his prime as to overpaying after free agency. We shall see but the next couple years are going to be much more fun!

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, MijiT88 said:

I honestly bet we give Adley an early deal if he shows to be the real thing. That might be part of that, and I bet ownership would go for giving a young guy money in his prime as to overpaying after free agency. We shall see but the next couple years are going to be much more fun!

That doesn’t mean their ‘24 payroll is gonna be impacted. The only potentially expensive arb players would be Mullins and Means and they would be 30ish total. Just to get to 130, would require some major FA acquisitions making 60-70 per year. 

[MijiT88]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

That doesn’t mean their ‘24 payroll is gonna be impacted. The only potentially expensive arb players would be Mullins and Means and they would be 30ish total. Just to get to 130, would require some major FA acquisitions making 60-70 per year. 

That is why I said an early Adley deal might be part of it. You put arb years on means and mullins plus a big adley extension plus some FA moves and you get there pretty quickly. I see us adding 2 decent FA players after 22 and after 23 and that might get us to be able to compete well then.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, MijiT88 said:

I honestly bet we give Adley an early deal if he shows to be the real thing. That might be part of that, and I bet ownership would go for giving a young guy money in his prime as to overpaying after free agency. We shall see but the next couple years are going to be much more fun!

In 2024, deal or no deal, Adley’s salary will be next to nothing.

[Sports Guy]

If this is the case, the Orioles will either have multiple 25-35M on the roster or a lot of failure from the young guys they are banking on.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

In 2024, deal or no deal, Adley’s salary will be next to nothing.

Dierkes seems like a nice enough guy but I'm not sure how much weight to give his opinions.  This seems very optimistic barring a substantial change in the CBA.

[sportsfan8703]

To hit that mark we’d have to have extensions for Means, AR, Mullins, Mountcastle, Hays, 3 SP, and closer. 

[Aristotelian]

Sounds about right in nominal dollars.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Former Astros.

you got it, all he knows, and not good at finding many gems there either

spoiler: next year the rebuild will get pushed to the right 1 year…

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I don't think the Orioles will even reach $80M by 2024. I don't see the team going all in on spending the next two off-seasons because there are no signs they will sign high priced free agents left, when the lockout end this off-season. 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

you got it, all he knows, and not good at finding many gems there either

spoiler: next year the rebuild will get pushed to the right 1 year…

 

What do we consider the end of the rebuild?   I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over.   I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023.   So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.)  Is the rebuild over?   When did it end?   Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?