What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Austin Hays?

[Tony-OH]

We can talk all day about the ball and the park effects, but he's the real issue with Hays. His barrel % went from 9.1 % to 5.6% with 6.7% being major league AVG. Everything from his EV, to hard hit % all fell this year. 

All of his offensive and defensive MLB percental rankings fell below 50% but his K%, WHIF %, arm strength and sprint speed. 

The Orioles need better in LF next year. The problem is neither Stowers or Santander played well in LF defensively and Cowser may need more AAA PAs before being deemed ready.

[InsideCoroner]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Sort of. Even if you thought he would do better, injuries were always something that were inevitable and those injuries hurt him again.

I hate to say it, but sometimes I prefer it when injury-prone players either get properly hurt (or admit they’re hurt) rather than playing through it, thinking it’s better for the team. It usually isn’t. This year probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference, but when this is a postseason-worthy team — hopefully starting next year — I want the most capable squad out there, rather than the gutsiest. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

We can talk all day about the ball and the park effects, but he's the real issue with Hays. His barrel % went from 9.1 % to 5.6% with 6.7% being major league AVG. Everything from his EV, to hard hit % all fell this year. 

All of his offensive and defensive MLB percental rankings fell below 50% but his K%, WHIF %, arm strength and sprint speed. 

The Orioles need better in LF next year. The problem is neither Stowers or Santander played well in LF defensively and Cowser may need more AAA PAs before being deemed ready.

So you keep Hays until Cowser is ready.  He’s not that expensive.  And maybe he has a hot start like this year.  

I’ve made no secret that Hays is a guy I root for.  But obviously if his second half is the new normal, he can’t play much.  And if 2022 as a whole will be a typical year for him, he’s quite replaceable.  But it’s worthwhile to let him have another shot while we wait on Cowser, unless we go out and get someone who’s clearly better.   
 

Edited October 13, 2022 by Frobby

[Jim'sKid26]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

We can talk all day about the ball and the park effects, but he's the real issue with Hays. His barrel % went from 9.1 % to 5.6% with 6.7% being major league AVG. Everything from his EV, to hard hit % all fell this year. 

All of his offensive and defensive MLB percental rankings fell below 50% but his K%, WHIF %, arm strength and sprint speed. 

The Orioles need better in LF next year. The problem is neither Stowers or Santander played well in LF defensively and Cowser may need more AAA PAs before being deemed ready.

To me he really seems like a very good 4th OF on a playoff team. He's got speed, defensive chops and a great arm. He can play CF in a pinch. If he gets 250-300 ABs and is reasonably productive when he plays great. I just don't see an everyday corner OF when I look at Hays. But I think he can be very effective in a part-time role. He might stay healthy as well.

[Tony-OH]

11 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

To me he really seems like a very good 4th OF on a playoff team. He's got speed, defensive chops and a great arm. He can play CF in a pinch. If he gets 250-300 ABs and is reasonably productive when he plays great. I just don't see an everyday corner OF when I look at Hays. But I think he can be very effective in a part-time role. He might stay healthy as well.

That's a reasonable assessment to me. He's a pretty solid 4th outfielder for sure and what a good team looks for. He doesn't have the speed and defense that is ideal, like McKenna, but he does provide some pop.

[sportsfan8703]

I like Hays. I also think Cowser may only do the 15 days in the minors like GR.  Hays just seemed to tire out last year, versus previously when he had some monster Septembers. But… he was usually hurt during the year so maybe those Septembers were because he was fresh. 
 

Bottomline is that we’d be selling really low on Hays, and Hays compliments our LH OF bats. Like Tony pointed out, he’s the type of 4th OF that playoff teams have. McKenna and Phillips are more 5th OF types. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Hays. I also think Cowser may only do the 15 days in the minors like GR.  Hays just seemed to tire out last year, versus previously when he had some monster Septembers. But… he was usually hurt during the year so maybe those Septembers were because he was fresh. 
 

Bottomline is that we’d be selling really low on Hays, and Hays compliments our LH OF bats. Like Tony pointed out, he’s the type of 4th OF that playoff teams have. McKenna and Phillips are more 5th OF types. 

Hays playing more of a Steve Pearce like role and getting 300 to 350 plate appearances, seems like it would be his ideal fit as a member of a World Series contending team.

Pearce had a good stretch from 2014 through 2018 as a part time player, while never getting more than 383 at bats in any individual season. Hays always gets banged up and his MLB career might benefit being used in this role. 

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Hays playing more of a Steve Pearce like role and getting 300 to 350 plate appearances, seems like it would be his ideal fit as a member of a World Series contending team.

Pearce had a good stretch from 2014 through 2018 as a part time player, while never getting more than 383 at bats in any individual season. Hays always gets banged up and his MLB career might benefit being used in this role. 

Maybe, but I think Hays is a much better player than Pearce, who only had two seasons over 2 rWAR (and three over 1 rWAR) in his 13-year career.   Hays has already had two 2+ rWAR campaigns at age 26.  Granted, he may never have a year as productive as Pearce’s 2014 season, where he produced more than half his career value.