The Athletic trade discussions- Mancini

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

But he won’t.  Or at least, it’s so unlikely that he will be worth more than he is now that it’s not worth keeping him to find out.

All we see are people complaining about the Manny deal and that deal was actually fine.  But you traded a rental player.  What did people expect?

But now we are going to get good players for Mancini, a player far less valuable than Machado?  It’s just not logical.

Mancini has some value now.  He will probably have some value at the deadline.  The chances are better that his value is higher or stays the same now vs then.  Play the odds, save the money and move him.

 

I am inclined to agree with you but I don't see how you can justify your level of certainty. Kind of like speculating on stocks, all you can know is his current value based on his past performance. I also think his value is low enough now that it's really not worth worrying about either way. It's either damaged goods now vs maybe 10-20% chance he will overperform enough to enhance their value and if we're not getting anything for him now I can see the case for hoping for upside. 

I was on board with trading him in 2019 as well as early '21.

[Frobby]

To me this is pretty simple.   If we are offered something in a trade that we think has potentially significant long term value, then we should trade Mancini.   If it’s just roster filler or guys whose chances of making a meaningful contribution are remote, then I’d rather keep Mancini and enjoy his (likely) final year as an Oriole.   

It always helps me to think about prospects the O’s have in their system.  Would I trade Mancini for, say, Kyle Bradish?   Yes.    Would I trade him for Tyler Nevin?   No.
 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am inclined to agree with you but I don't see how you can justify your level of certainty. Kind of like speculating on stocks, all you can know is his current value based on his past performance. I also think his value is low enough now that it's really not worth worrying about either way. It's either damaged goods now vs maybe 10-20% chance he will overperform enough to enhance their value and if we're not getting anything for him now I can see the case for hoping for upside. 

I was on board with trading him in 2019 as well as early '21.

In certain because rentals don’t fetch much and the ones that do, provide a far larger impact than a first base/DH with middling numbers.

And even if he gets back to 2019, he still won’t fetch much for the same reason.  Now, I do admit that if he is pushing a 900 OPS at mid season that he would probably net more than right now but what are the real chances of that?  Not high at all.  Right now, you can likely get a 2-3 pieces for him.  Maybe not elite guys but to be able to add a few potential power arms out of the pen, a low level starting pitcher prospect, intl FA type lottery tickets, etc…is worth moving him for.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me this is pretty simple.   If we are offered something in a trade that we think has potentially significant long term value, then we should trade Mancini.   If it’s just roster filler or guys whose chances of making a meaningful contribution are remote, then I’d rather keep Mancini and enjoy his (likely) final year as an Oriole.   

It always helps me to think about prospects the O’s have in their system.  Would I trade Mancini for, say, Kyle Bradish?   Yes.    Would I trade him for Tyler Nevin?   No.
 

Right…I think I would trade Mancini for any 2 guys that would be inside our top 30..and since we have a top 5ish system, that’s pretty strong.  So, most of the other teams, it’s 2 top guys.  
 

That’s fine.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I'm more or less agnostic about trading Trey at this point- I don't think he will net us much value in a deal presently and that it's a longshot that he will perform well enough to signigficantly raise his value by the trade deadline. I don't think anyone arguing for trading him now for whatever we can get is wrong per se, but I also don't think the "let him play out his contract and walk with a nice sendoff at the end of the year" crowd is necessarily wrong either since the team would likely be slightly more watchable this year with Trey than with, say, Tyler Nevin or Jahmai Jones getting those ABs. If we could swing a salary dump + prospect(s) type of deal, i.e. Hosmer + a legitimately high-end SP prospect from San Diego for Mancini, that might be worth doing, but I doubt ownership would let Elias do that so that's probably just pie in the sky talk.

The time to trade him was at last year's deadline but I get that it was a bitter pill to swallow from a PR standpoint given that he was in the middle of his feel-good comeback story so it was ultimately decided against. Que sera sera.

[interloper]

43 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The time to trade him was at last year's deadline but I get that it was a bitter pill to swallow from a PR standpoint given that he was in the middle of his feel-good comeback story so it was ultimately decided against. Que sera sera.

I think there's a very good chance he puts a solid first half and the O's can deal him at this year's deadline. Like you said, a trade last season was pretty untenable what with the home run derby and having Trey represent the O's with his great story and all that. Fortunately, we can just do that this year. After a normal offseason, and another year removed from recovery, I think he have a good few months and end up on a contender. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think there's a very good chance he puts a solid first half and the O's can deal him at this year's deadline. Like you said, a trade last season was pretty untenable what with the home run derby and having Trey represent the O's with his great story and all that. Fortunately, we can just do that this year. After a normal offseason, and another year removed from recovery, I think he have a good few months and end up on a contender. 

This is a very possible scenario, but the fans (myself included) need to temper their expectations on the trade haul Mancini would net.

I don’t know if it will necessarily reflect in Mancini’s stat line, but I’m expecting he is going to feel stronger than he did last season and avoid a second half swoon. 

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This is a very possible scenario, but the fans (myself included) need to temper their expectations on the trade haul Mancini would net.

I don’t know if it will necessarily reflect in Mancini’s stat line, but I’m expecting he is going to feel stronger than he did last season and avoid a second half swoon. 

Yeah there will be no haul, but that's fine. As long he goes to a contender and we get a couple lottery tickets. Anyone expecting otherwise, I'm not sure why they would be. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah there will be no haul, but that's fine. As long he goes to a contender and we get a couple lottery tickets. Anyone expecting otherwise, I'm not sure why they would be. 

I was more talking about the casual fans and not the average OH poster. I can see it now Trey has a .900 OPS at the trade deadline and the fan reaction when the trade haul isn’t what they had hoped. 

[interloper]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I was more talking about the casual fans and not the average OH poster. I can see it now Trey has a .900 OPS at the trade deadline and the fan reaction when the trade haul isn’t what they had hoped. 

True, true. 

[Sports Guy]

When people say Mancini won’t bring anything back right now, how are you defining that?

Like, use Orioles prospects as a comp. What 2 prospects would you use as a comp to “not getting much back”?

[Just Regular]

Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller and Joc Pederson are three free agents whose signing numbers I feel might affect whatever little something Elias might be able to get.    If those guys can beat Mancini's 1/7 type figure for 2022, maybe.   But if those guys are down at half that, any GM talking to Elias is going to say why don't I just pay that guy before I give you even my C+ prospect.

[Moose Milligan]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When people say Mancini won’t bring anything back right now, how are you defining that?

Like, use Orioles prospects as a comp. What 2 prospects would you use as a comp to “not getting much back”?

Jahmai Jones and Zac Lowther types.  

Guys that'll play in Baltimore only because the team is terrible and they'll need bodies at some point due to injury, probably.

In other words, filler.

I'm with @DrinkinWithFermi, I'm agnostic on trading Mancini, that's a perfect way to describe it.  If it happens, great, I guess.  Gives us something to talk about and munch on, most likely doesn't move a need for this franchise moving forward.

Do these moves need to happen for a franchise?  Yes.  Does that make it exciting?  No.  

[Sports Guy]

I don’t see any issue with getting Lowther type guys.  

But let’s say Lowther and Jones is the best we could get.  I would agree to hold onto him.

I just think we could get more than that.

[Moose Milligan]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see any issue with getting Lowther type guys.  

But let’s say Lowther and Jones is the best we could get.  I would agree to hold onto him.

I just think we could get more than that.

Alright, well what more do you think we could get?  What's the value for someone like Mancini who's fairly limited?