Free agency thread

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What is 26M now?  Around 3 WAR?

Yes.   He probably needs to produce about 23 WAR over 7 seasons to warrant the contract.  He’s been worth 28.7 in the 7 seasons he’s played already.   We’ll see how he’s doing at ages 34-36; that will likely determine if this was an overpay or not.   

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Let's say it is.  Since the start of 2018 Bryant has played about three seasons worth of games and has been worth a bit over 10 wins.  So 3+ wins a season.  They're paying him to continue to to that for the next seven years, through his age 36 season.  It's a deal from 10 or 20 years ago when either the GM didn't believe in age-related decline, didn't care about an ugly back end of the deal because he knew they'd be in the playoffs a lot in the next 2, 3, 4 years, or was counting on PEDs to arrest the normal aging.

Which of those do you think applies to this deal?

Amazing they'd pass on a better home grown player at the same position, then sign this contract.  

I think he can be worth 10ish WAR for the next 3 seasons.  The problem is what is after that?  I was ok with Bryant for 6 years with the Os (although in hindsight, I was for too much money as I thought he would get more) knowing that the last few years would probably not be that good.  
 

But I also expected to contend while he was here and having that 3-4 WAR guy would have been good.  
 

Im not sure I see Colorado contending in the next few years.  Maybe by year 3?  

[geschinger]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.   He probably needs to produce about 23 WAR over 7 seasons to warrant the contract.  He’s been worth 28.7 in the 7 seasons he’s played already.   We’ll see how he’s doing at ages 34-36; that will likely determine if this was an overpay or not.   

That seems unlikely to me looking at the trend.  Almost 2/3 of what he's been worth was the result of his first three seasons.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 WAR over the first 4 seems like a realistic outcome.  I don't see him getting anywhere close to 23 over the contract.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yes.   He probably needs to produce about 23 WAR over 7 seasons to warrant the contract.  He’s been worth 28.7 in the 7 seasons he’s played already.   We’ll see how he’s doing at ages 34-36; that will likely determine if this was an overpay or not.   

Well of course it's an overpay.  You'd have to assume that Bryant won't age to think it's not.  The Rockies know this, and we have to look at this as they just don't care. I suppose that's better for the fans than teams reflexively trading off anyone who is in line to make arb/free agent salaries.  Okay, this year's fans, and next. Not the fans in 2026 who're wondering what kind of crack the front office was smoking to have a 34, 35-year-old on the roster who plays 66 games and has a 80 OPS+ while making almost $30M a year.

I value Bryant at something like 4/80.  Established value of three wins, assume a decline of half a win a year, pray he doesn't pull a Chris Davis and decline at three wins a year. Rockies, if they care, are implicitly assuming he declines at zero wins a year.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Well of course it's an overpay.  You'd have to assume that Bryant won't age to think it's not.  The Rockies know this, and we have to look at this as they just don't care. I suppose that's better for the fans than teams reflexively trading off anyone who is in line to make arb/free agent salaries.  Okay, this year's fans, and next. Not the fans in 2026 who're wondering what kind of crack the front office was smoking to have a 34, 35-year-old on the roster who plays 66 games and has a 80 OPS+ while making almost $30M a year.

I value Bryant at something like 4/80.  Established value of three wins, assume a decline of half a win a year, pray he doesn't pull a Chris Davis and decline at three wins a year. Rockies, if they care, are implicitly assuming he declines at zero wins a year.

I mean it is the Rockies, they might not know.

Would explain a lot.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Well of course it's an overpay.  You'd have to assume that Bryant won't age to think it's not.  The Rockies know this, and we have to look at this as they just don't care. I suppose that's better for the fans than teams reflexively trading off anyone who is in line to make arb/free agent salaries.  Okay, this year's fans, and next. Not the fans in 2026 who're wondering what kind of crack the front office was smoking to have a 34, 35-year-old on the roster who plays 66 games and has a 80 OPS+ while making almost $30M a year.

I value Bryant at something like 4/80.  Established value of three wins, assume a decline of half a win a year, pray he doesn't pull a Chris Davis and decline at three wins a year. Rockies, if they care, are implicitly assuming he declines at zero wins a year.

I mean he’s an overpay at historical FA prices.   I look at the whole contract — is there likely to be surplus in the early years that will compensate for the deficit in the decline years, at $8 mm/win?  The likelihood that the last few years will have a deficit is a given, it’s just a question of whether there’s enough surplus in the early years.   I don’t look at it as “all free agents are overpaid.”   As a group, they’re paid exactly what the market will bear.   But some contracts are much better than average compared to production, and some are much worse.   This one looks well below average IMO.   My guess is you agree, since 4/$80 mm worth of production (call it 10 WAR) will leave him well underwater at the end of 7 years.    

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he can be worth 10ish WAR for the next 3 seasons.  The problem is what is after that?  I was ok with Bryant for 6 years with the Os (although in hindsight, I was for too much money as I thought he would get more) knowing that the last few years would probably not be that good.  
 

But I also expected to contend while he was here and having that 3-4 WAR guy would have been good.  
 

Im not sure I see Colorado contending in the next few years.  Maybe by year 3?  

Bryant is a very good hitter, but if the O's can hand out one $150 million contract, it shouldn't be going to Bryant.  Signing Bryant as your 3rd or 4th big contract might make sense for the Yankees or Dodgers.  It doesn't make sense for the O's (or Rockies).  I guess it gives the fans someone to cheer for.  That is how the O's lost 14 straight season and it doesn't look like the Rockies will win anything soon. 

[seak05]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Through his current age (31) Freeman has been worth 43 wins.  Through age 31 Eddie Murray was worth 53 wins.  From 32-on Eddie was worth 15.  He had just two more 3+ win seasons in the tank. The Dodgers are counting on Freeman to age much better than Eddie.  Good luck with that.

I suppose when you have $500M+ a year in revenues normal guidelines like "you're an idiot to sign a guy on the wrong side of 30 to a 5+ year deal" just don't apply. 

First baseman other then Eddie have existed in the last 30 years. Nelson Cruz just got a new contract at 40. You can sign someone, and they get hurt immediately to, any contract has a risk. But I would bet that over the course of the next 6 years Freeman produces more then 24 WAR (and that number would be lower if the cost of a WAR increases). The Braves meanwhile gave an 8 year contract to a player who, while younger, has also not produced nearly as consistently, and will be on he other side of 30 for the majority of the contract. 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Bryant is a very good hitter, but if the O's can hand out one $150 million contract, it shouldn't be going to Bryant.  Signing Bryant as your 3rd or 4th big contract might make sense for the Yankees or Dodgers.  It doesn't make sense for the O's (or Rockies).  I guess it gives the fans someone to cheer for.  That is how the O's lost 14 straight season and it doesn't look like the Rockies will win anything soon. 

I disagree that we don't make sense.  We have holes in the areas he can play and we should be a contending team soon.  If you believe he will continue to hit and not be some terrible defender than he has a lot of value to a contender for the next 3 or 4 years IMO.  After that, he may suck.  Who knows. He may also be Nelson Cruz and always hit. 

He has been a pretty durable guy in his career.  I am not aware of any long term injury concerns for him.

 

But I don't think I would have gone the 7th year.  I would have done something like what Freddie Freeman got from LA.  Yes, its only 10M less than he got and 1 year less but that 1 year means something to me. I would have also front loaded the deal.

 

Like I said, I was all for a 6/180 early in the offseason but I thought he would get more money.  With that being the case, I wouldn't have put as much money on the table as that.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I mean it is the Rockies, they might not know.

Would explain a lot.

>mfw I'm an Orioles fan AND a Rockies fan

[geschinger]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has been a pretty durable guy in his career.  I am not aware of any long term injury concerns for him.

Durable doesn't seem to fit.  He has missed 137 games in the last four full seasons + covid shortened season.  

 

[Just Regular]

Arbitrarily using ESPN Kiley McDaniel's group of Top 10 free agents, and blend of Kiley/Fangraphs AAV guesses -- with just the shortstops to go, outcomes have been:

Player | 2-guess average AAV | Actual AAV* | Actual delta vs. guesses

Correa - 31.5 - TBD - TBD

Seager - 29 - 32.5 - 10-15% extra

Freeman - 25.5 - 27 - 5-10% extra

Story - 24 - TBD - TBD

Semien - 22.5 - 25 - 10-15% extra

Gausman - 20 - 22 - 10% extra

Scherzer - 31 - 43 - 40% extra     (reason the Cohen tier in CBA exists? )

Bryant - 21.5 - 26 - 20-30% extra

Ray - 18.5 - 23 - 20-30% extra

Starling - 17.5 - 19.5 - 10-15% extra

Shockingly Dodgers closed on Freeman at lowest premium to date, based on those quasi-informed guesses from Kiley McDaniel and Fangraphs readers.

This analysis doesn't look at Contract Term, but guessers there figured Correa for a couple years longer than Seager with the youth.

*mostly rounding off to nearest million - Schwarber 4/79 is a 20 to me

[interloper]

Cubs get VIllar.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, geschinger said:

Durable doesn't seem to fit.  He has missed 137 games in the last four full seasons + covid shortened season.  

 

He has played in 144+ games every year except 2020 (COVID year) and 2018.

[Sports Guy]

Rays offered Freeman 6/150 according to Heyman and with the lack of state taxes, that makes that offer even higher.

Freeman wanted to go home.