Means to Have TJ surgery

[Sydnor]

When Mile Clevinger needed TJ surgery, the Padres signed him to the following deal to set a fixed cost:

I think Clevinger was better than Means prior to TJ surgery, so something factoring in the extra arb year remaining with Means would make sense. Notwithstanding that, I don’t expect the Orioles to do it because they couldn’t avoid arbitration with Means and seem to have no interest in doing anything other than going year to year with players.

[OriolesMagic83]

35 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

When Mile Clevinger needed TJ surgery, the Padres signed him to the following deal to set a fixed cost:

I think Clevinger was better than Means prior to TJ surgery, so something factoring in the extra arb year remaining with Means would make sense. Notwithstanding that, I don’t expect the Orioles to do it because they couldn’t avoid arbitration with Means and seem to have no interest in doing anything other than going year to year with players.

If the O's keep Means for 2023, he will get around the same he's getting this year.  Has his arbitration case even been settled?  I would guess he gets around the same in 2023. 

2023  $3 million

2024  $5 million w/ innings/GS incentives up to $2 million

2025  $7 million w/ innings/GS incentives up to $2 million

2026 $10 million option w/ $1 mill opt out

2027 $12 million option w/ $1 mill opt out

Not sure the O's would even consider this, but if they can get 2 FA years, they should try. 

 

[MGH5208]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep that Davis deal bought a lot of goodwill.

At the time, for a majority of the fanbase, I think it did. 

In hindsight, maybe not so much 

 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, MGH5208 said:

At the time, for a majority of the fanbase, I think it did. 

In hindsight, maybe not so much 

 

All the Monday morning quarterbacks who loved that deal when it was signed gave the Orioles hell for it the last five years.   

I think this kind of goodwill is highly overrated.   You know what builds goodwill?   Winning and the decisions that lead to it.   
 

[Sports Guy]

Wonder what the impact of the lockout and shortened ST had on this injury?

We heard that he spent the offseason strengthening his shoulder.  Did some of those exercises lead to this?  Did he neglect the elbow while concentrating on the shoulder?

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Sydnor said:

When Mile Clevinger needed TJ surgery, the Padres signed him to the following deal to set a fixed cost:

I think Clevinger was better than Means prior to TJ surgery, so something factoring in the extra arb year remaining with Means would make sense. Notwithstanding that, I don’t expect the Orioles to do it because they couldn’t avoid arbitration with Means and seem to have no interest in doing anything other than going year to year with players.

Clevinger is different because of the timing of his injury and surgery.   He’d already earned $4.1 mm in Arb 1 in 2020, pitched well that year until getting hurt towards the end of the season and his surgery took place in September so he figured to miss all of 2020 but have a good shot at being ready for a full 2022.   (He’s on a rehab assignment in the minors now.)   Means is earning less in Arb 1, will hardly pitch at all in his Arb 1 season and is likely to miss more than half of his Arb 2 season.  

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Wonder what the impact of the lockout and shortened ST had on this injury?

We heard that he spent the offseason strengthening his shoulder.  Did some of those exercises lead to this?  Did he neglect the elbow while concentrating on the shoulder?

Or was it just the type of random injury that happens to pitchers.  I think that’s what this is.  Pitching is hard on elbows.

[Sydnor]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Clevinger is different because of the timing of his injury and surgery.   He’d already earned $4.1 mm in Arb 1 in 2020, pitched well that year until getting hurt towards the end of the season and his surgery took place in September so he figured to miss all of 2020 but have a good shot at being ready for a full 2022.   (He’s on a rehab assignment in the minors now.)   Means is earning less in Arb 1, will hardly pitch at all in his Arb 1 season and is likely to miss more than half of his Arb 2 season.  

I wasn’t saying that it was a perfectly analogous, on-point contract extension that would show exactly what the Orioles should pay Means. I was only posting it as an example to show that teams do lock players up I. These situations to achieve cost certainty. If that wasn’t clear, I apologize, but with young kids and Covid, I didn’t have a lot of time to draft a lengthy analysis. I’ll go back to lurking.

[Maverick Hiker]

I wonder if Means went way over his usual pitch count in his no hitter and that contributed to this injury.  This I did not expect: Tommy John surgery!

 

 I hope Means  has a successful rehab and can come back full strength.  It would be interesting to know what the success rate is for this for coming back, going back to Tommy John.

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Or was it just the type of random injury that happens to pitchers.  I think that’s what this is.  Pitching is hard on elbows.

Sure. It  could be a coincidence to all of those things but I tend to doubt it.  I think we will see more arm injuries as a result of the shortened ST.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

34 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

I wonder if Means went way over his usual pitch count in his no hitter and that contributed to this injury.  This I did not expect: Tommy John surgery!

 

 I hope Means  has a successful rehab and can come back full strength.  It would be interesting to know what the success rate is for this for coming back, going back to Tommy John.

I'm not buying the no hitter led to Means getting Tommy John surgery. The pitch count in the no hitter was 113 pitches thrown. But Means also had four other 100+ pitch count games last season. 

And three of those 100+ pitch games came on consecutive starts last September. 09/15 - 103 pitches; 09/20 - 105 pitches and 09/26 - 108 pitches thrown. 

If anything triggered this injury it was Means workload last September, but we still don't know for sure. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=meansjo01&t=p&year=2021

[Maverick Hiker]

58 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I'm not buying the no hitter led to Means getting Tommy John surgery. The pitch count in the no hitter was 113 pitches thrown. But Means also had four other 100+ pitch count games last season. 

And three of those 100+ pitch games came on consecutive starts last September. 09/15 - 103 pitches; 09/20 - 105 pitches and 09/26 - 108 pitches thrown. 

If anything triggered this injury it was Means workload last September, but we still don't know for sure. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=meansjo01&t=p&year=2021

You're probably right it was more likely an acculation of games especially those 100+ pitch games.  I give Means credit for being willing to stay in that long in all those games unlike a recent pitcher who wanted to be pulled after like 80 pitches in a perfect game.

In the old days when I was a kid pitchers like Denny McClain and Bob Gibson had to be dragged off the mound they didn't mind going way over 100 pitches.

 

 I read one extra  inning game  McClain threw over 160 pitches.  He had a shortened career due to arm trouble.  Same as Sandy Koufax.

 Oddly some pitchers like Gibson throwing all those innings actually seemed to help him, it was  like exercising his arm. And he'd be at his best in October even after throwing 300+ innings. 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2022 by Maverick Hiker

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

You're probably right it was more likely an acculation of games especially those 100+ pitch games.  I give Means credit for being willing to stay in that long in all those games unlike a recent pitcher who wanted to be pulled after like 80 pitches in a perfect game.

In the old days when I was a kid pitchers like Denny McClain and Bob Gibson had to be dragged off the mound they didn't mind going way over 100 pitches.

Please tell me you aren’t talking about Clayton Kershaw and suggesting he’s some kind of a wimp.  Kershaw has thrown as many as 236 innings in a season, topped 230 three times and 200 five times.   He’s had ten seasons where he threw more innings than John Means ever did.  He’s thrown 25 complete hands to John Means’ one.  He’s topped 113 pitches 39 times in his career, topping out at 132 (twice).   He’s no. 4 in career IP among active pitchers.   

The guy is 34 years old now and has had various back and arm injuries the last few years.   If he felt like 80 pitches was about the most he could go in his first start of the year after a short spring training in which he threw 11.2 innings in 4 outings, I have complete respect for that decision.   Nobody wants to walk away from a potential perfect game, but he’s got the entire season in front of him and wants to do what will help his team win over 162 games and the postseason, not what might get him some short term glory.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Wonder what the impact of the lockout and shortened ST had on this injury?

We heard that he spent the offseason strengthening his shoulder.  Did some of those exercises lead to this?  Did he neglect the elbow while concentrating on the shoulder?

I've actually read something that touches on this. 

I think it was Passan's The Arm but I could be wrong.

It talked about how guys strengthening their shoulders were leading to more elbow issues not because of neglect but because some part of the pitch delivery system was going to break down at some point and if you strengthen one part of the system it will just move the fault to somewhere else.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Would someone be able to do a poll on signing means to a deal? I’d love to hear other opinions.