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The Teixeira Watch: Part V - AM says the O's "have flexibility" on Tex

Jagwar

By Jagwar
in Orioles Talk

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rooster AA

rooster

Posted
Posted
Not remotely true.

Far, far, far, far, far from a sure thing... It will take a lot of good decision making with no margin for error to maybe win w/Teix.

Redundancy watch: Offense wasn't the problem. Defense wasn't the problem. Things went to heck when Albers went down. Metastasization ensued. The Teix thing is WAY overblown. And I'm guilty. Cuz I believe in symbols.

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jcroemer Major Leaguer

jcroemer

Posted
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Until Tex signs who knows who is still in the hunt. The Angels could be still in the hunt and also throwing out disinformation. When he signs it will be all over and we wil lsee who was right and who was wrong.

I can't see the Angels still in this. Tex wants to go East. No way can LAA can overwhelm him like that with Boston and (possibly) New York in this, IMO

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jcroemer Major Leaguer

jcroemer

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Ortiz is getting old, they lost Manny. If we took some of those payroll dollars saved from not signing Teix and put it into International signings and the draft we will get significantly more bang for our buck. We aren't going to beat the Red Sox by outspending them for particular players... The only way we will be able to consistently contend is to out do them in player development.

Good luck going prospect for prospect with Theo's $100 MM player development machine.

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geschinger Veteran All-Star

geschinger

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The Orioles will not sign another major FA unless they make the playoffs IMO or overpay a ton.

It amazes me when you say this kind of thing... It isn't even remotely true. Baltimore will be an attractive destination if they are loaded with young talent and the major FA can picture themselves as being the difference maker that can take that team to the playoffs. They do not need to make the playoffs first.

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alskor AAA

alskor

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The Orioles will not sign another major FA unless they make the playoffs IMO or overpay a ton.

The only reason Tex is considering Baltimore is that he's from the area. If he had no ties to Baltimore, we wouldn't be in the race at all.

Contracts will not hurt the Yankees or Sux at all, talent will.

You do realize that 200 million would be overpaying a ton for Tex, right? Are you under the impression he's giving McPhail some sort of hometown discount...? :confused:

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OnTheBlack AAA

OnTheBlack

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I apologize is this has been posted - I haven't read each of the three million posts on this subject...:D

but it really bothers me that reporters, especially the national reporters, keep referring to the Orioles offer as clearly the smallest of the four. That is a very misleading and likely inaccurate statement.

First, all agents and teams value their contracts in terms of present value. This means that they discount future payments by an assumed rate of return. So, a $10M payment made eight years from now might have a present value of $6-7M. If two teams have offered the same years and money, perhaps 8/160, that does NOT tell you that the deals are equavalent. There could be a very large difference in the value of these two offers. The reporters don't ever say that and apparently don't understand that.

Second, even if you ignore the above argument, reporters seem to be saying that the Orioles' supposed offer of 7/140-150 is necessarily a lot smaller than a competing offer of 8/160. That is not true. Assuming that timing of the payments is equivalent, an offer of 8/140 is a lot smaller than 8/160. An offer of 7/140 is clearly worth a lot more than 8/140.

And suppose the Orioles' offer if closer to 7/150. Doesn't that look BETTER than 8/160? Tex is pretty likely the be able to play in 2016, the eighth year. And won't he likely earn more than $10M? IMO he will earn $30M.

So, that's my rant. The devil, as they say, is in the details, of which we and these judgemental reporters know nothing. The Orioles have nothing to be ashamed of in their seven year offer. Neither Boras nor Tex seems to have been insulted. Let's see how it plays out.

EXACTLY. Rep points to you, sir. Math people, math.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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Posted
Ortiz is getting old, they lost Manny. If we took some of those payroll dollars saved from not signing Teix and put it into International signings and the draft we will get significantly more bang for our buck. We aren't going to beat the Red Sox by outspending them for particular players... The only way we will be able to consistently contend is to out do them in player development.

The draft and international signings will take 4-5 years to bear fruit. We can't be Tampa for another 9-10 years considering we've finally committed to scouting and development just last season, while they've had the same timeframe to perfect their methods. Besides the Orioles aren't going to commit the huge amounts of money to sign the top Latin talent. They've already said that. They won't take the risks the Yankees and Sux do because of the $ they have to spend.

In the meantime I'd like to win, how about you?

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alskor AAA

alskor

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The draft and international signings will take 4-5 years to bear fruit. We can't be Tampa for another 9-10 years considering we've finally committed to scouting and development just last season, while they've had the same timeframe to perfect their methods.

In the meantime I'd like to win, how about you?

So I take it you would be happy with one good season, a playoff run say, as opposed to sustained success?

That's what you seem to be advocating. Signing Tex is another quick fix - the same thing the O's have been trying for the last 11 seasons.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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If he gets $200m it is ARod money. You would be paying even more of a premium for Teix as the Rangers paid for ARod when you consider how much more production ARod brought to the table compared to Teix.

250-300 million is A-Rod money.

The Orioles will have to pay 230 or less to land Tex.

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Trinidad Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Trinidad

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So I take it you would be happy with one good season, a playoff run say, as opposed to sustained success?

That's what you seem to be advocating. Signing Tex is another quick fix - the same thing the O's have been trying for the last 11 seasons.

How is a 8-10yr. contract a quick fix?

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