Olney on trade deadline

[Sports Guy]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/33927707/will-nationals-trade-juan-soto-carlos-correa-move-10-x-factors-trade-market-heats-up
 

5. How aggressively will the Orioles pursue trades?

Baltimore has played better early this season -- more specifically, it has pitched better -- and for a lot of the team's fans, success against the Yankees and Red Sox has been fun. But the Orioles won't make the playoffs this year; they are still many, many players away from being a serious contender. And the Orioles' roster isn't exactly teeming with newbies; as of Friday, Tyler Nevin was the youngest, and he turns 25 this month. When the Orioles turn the corner, it stands to reason that Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Austin Hays, et al., will not be on the roster.

This sets up a bit of a quandary for the Orioles' front office: Do they rip out the roots of fans' goodwill and aggressively trade their best big league assets for future assets? Or do they keep some of the more familiar names?

A rival exec cited the team's attendance in explaining his view of what Baltimore should do this summer. "Sell," he said. "Nobody's really going to the games, anyway. They're committed to the future, they're tanking, and they should follow through with the plan."

[UMDTerrapins]

Interesting comment on Mullins/Hays, given that they’re under our control through 2025.  Not that I don’t think we should be open to deal both/either, but I don’t agree with it as a presumption. I also think my definition of turning a corner must be different than his. 

[Can_of_corn]

Couple points.

One, that GM better watch out, he said the O's are tanking, them fightin' words in these parts. 

Also, funny that Buster thinks Elias cares about goodwill existing with the fans.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Interesting comment on Mullins/Hays, given that they’re under our control through 2025.  Not that I don’t think we should be open to deal both/either, but I don’t agree with it as a presumption. I also think my definition of turning a corner must be different than his. 

Do you want to have a 29 year old and a 30 year old making arbitration 3 salaries on your 2025 roster?  Wouldn't you rather that payroll and roster flexibility?  On top of whatever talent you can get for them.

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you want to have a 29 year old and a 30 year old making arbitration 3 salaries on your 2025 roster?  Wouldn't you rather that payroll and roster flexibility?  On top of whatever talent you can get for them.

Is the system going to be so deep they can replace them all? I’m not against moving just about anyone in general but nobody will be breaking the bank here in 2025 unless they spend on someone in FA.  
 

If you deal Mullins better not miss.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Is the system going to be so deep they can replace them all? I’m not against moving just about anyone in general but nobody will be breaking the bank here in 2025 unless they spend on someone in FA.  
 

If you deal Mullins better not miss.  

If it isn't deep enough in 2025 what are you going to do in 2026 after he walks?

Doesn't seem like they are interested in extending anyone.

[UMDTerrapins]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do you want to have a 29 year old and a 30 year old making arbitration 3 salaries on your 2025 roster?  Wouldn't you rather that payroll and roster flexibility?  On top of whatever talent you can get for them.

Another way of looking at is this….do you want to be in the 4th years of Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish and other core components of your rebuild and still prioritizing payroll/roster flexibility? At some point we need to be aiming to win something. Don’t get me wrong, if the right return was there for Mullins I was advocating trading him last offseason. And same could be said for Hays if he continues to build his trade value. I just don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that it will take 3-4 years to turn a corner and that these guys won’t be here when we do. 

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

If it isn't deep enough in 2025 what are you going to do in 2026 after he walks?

What if he helps you win in 24 and 25? 
 

The later a player leaves the more time you have to develop a replacement in your system. You trade Mullins now obviously he is more valuable to move  but that hurts you in 2023 and more than likely 24. 
 

If Elias is going to move Mullins he better not screw up the deal. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

Another way of looking at is this….do you want to be in the 4th years of Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish and other core components of your rebuild and still prioritizing payroll/roster flexibility? At some point we need to be aiming to win something. Don’t get me wrong, if the right return was there for Mullins I was advocating trading him last offseason. And same could be said for Hays if he continues to build his trade value. I just don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that it will take 3-4 years to turn a corner and that these guys won’t be here when we do. 

Did you think when Elias was hired we would be looking at another 100+ loss season in 2022?

He doesn't seem to be in a hurry.

[UMDTerrapins]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you think when Elias was hired we would be looking at another 100+ loss season in 2022?

He doesn't seem to be in a hurry.

I think he’s been very methodical, but I also think that the rep that he’s built so far in his tenure shouldn’t be assumed to be how he will operate going forward (which I know is usually a fair assumption) . He knows fully well that once the products of his rebuild start hitting the ML roster he will start being judged not just on organizational rankings but by ML wins and losses. His personal clock starts ticking once GR/AR arrive. I’d even theorize that his patience in promoting those guys is partially with that clock in mind. It won’t be terribly long after they’re in Baltimore that the attention will shift to him and how effectively he has built a winning team around them. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I think he’s been very methodical, but I also think that the rep that he’s built so far in his tenure shouldn’t be assumed to be how he will operate going forward (which I know is usually a fair assumption) . He knows fully well that once the products of his rebuild start hitting the ML roster he will start being judged not just on organizational rankings but by ML wins and losses. His personal clock starts ticking once GR/AR arrive. I’d even theorize that his patience in promoting those guys is partially with that clock in mind. It won’t be terribly long after they’re in Baltimore that the attention will shift to him and how effectively he has built a winning team around them. 

I think that if you are planning on having them walk after the 2025 season you are better off getting something for them that will help the team beyond that timeline.

[Sports Guy]

I think they are right about Mullins and Hays.  UMD has a point but the team has loaded up with OFers and you have to question what kind of production these guys are giving you, at their escalating prices, once you start contending and, on top of that, how much more valuable will they be than what you can bring up and what you can get back in trade?

Very few guys are worth their last 2 arb contracts and FA money if you are building a team properly.  
 

I mean, if the drafts Jones 1 and if he’s as good as they say, he will be here in 2-3 years.  We don’t need an aging, expensive Mullins in his way.  That’s what we should be doing.  Very few guys are worth paying big money in that late 20s/early 30s area.

[UMDTerrapins]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that if you are planning on having them walk after the 2025 season you are better off getting something for them that will help the team beyond that timeline.

I completely agree with that, but not with it taking until 2025 to turn a corner. I don't expect us to with the WS in 2023 or anything crazy, but this is the last year that I'm willing to give to Elias as a freebie. The notion that he needs to be given 3 more years to produce a winner is super soft to me. It affords him too much patience to build a winner entirely from within. We have the lowest MLB payroll and lots of capacity to add via free agency or trade by taking on salaries. I loathe the idea that we have to ease into a winner. Once our most valuable rebuild assets are in Baltimore, it's go time. The clock is ticking. If that means acquiring a vet who blocks a prospect, then that prospect becomes a trade asset to us. I've been extremely patient, but that patience (I think rightfully) expires soon. 

[Sanfran327]

In the past, we have traded our guys too late. It would sting, but literally nobody on our roster is a current or future superstar. Hays and Mullins are good but not great. Relative nobodies in the grand scheme of our franchise history (no disrespect, as I like both players very much). 

But those guys will bring back more than lottery scratchers. They'll actually net something of value. Might as well do it now and see if you can't turn some OF surplus into infielders or more arms.

[UMDTerrapins]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, if the drafts Jones 1 and if he’s as good as they say, he will be here in 2-3 years.  We don’t need an aging, expensive Mullins in his way.  That’s what we should be doing.  Very few guys are worth paying big money in that late 20s/early 30s area.

For sure, we have lots of OF depth. To me, obviously you trade ether of them at any time if the return makes sense. I think you and I both thought Miami was a no-brainer for Mullins this offseason. My problem wasn't specific to Mullins and Hays, it was with this insane notion that Elias isn't expected to produce a winner and soon, let alone "turn a corner".