Stacking up the O's record

[wildcard]

12 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

When has a team ever traded a player right before the start of a new contract?  Sounds like a pretty classless move if Mancini is under the impression that he’s staying in Baltimore. 

So tell him.  No reason to lie to Mancini.   Tell him that they want him to be with them to try to make the playoffs and that they will decide whether to trade him or not in the off season.   I think he would still sign with them if its a fair deal.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I remember when the odds were totally against us in 2012, even though the team maintained a great record. Then finally all those sites started bumping the "chances" up until we clinched a spot. But not until really late in the season.

I think the team has closer to a 25-40% chance based on talent, and the minor leaguers that will be promoted soon. I thought this was a playoff caliber team a month ago when we were closer to 10 games under .500. The Red Sox, Jays, and Rays are all not all that great and have major flaws. And once we promote Westburg and Vavra, we have the deepest lineup in the AL East. Yes, including the Yankees.

I’ll have what he’s having.   

The real issue is, will our pitching hold up for the remaining 75 games?   You want to know why we’re winning?   Since June 16, our starters have a 2.55 ERA.  Now, they’re still not going deep into games (5.22 IP/start in that stretch), but they’re keep us in the game and frequently handing the bullpen a lead.   In that time:

Wells 26.0 IP, 6 ER (5 starts)

 Kremer 28.1 IP, 5 ER (5)

Lyles 25.2 IP, 8 ER (4)

Watkins 17.2 IP, 2 ER (3)

Voth 18.0 IP, 6 ER (5)

Bradish 4.1 IP, 6 ER (1)

 Toss out the injured Bradish and the others are at 2.18 ERA since June 16, with nobody higher than 3.00.   

Starting pitching is seen as our biggest weakness (rightly, IMO), but for 3.5 weeks it’s been our strength.    And that’s why we’re winning right now.  

[ArtVanDelay]

54 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So tell him.  No reason to lie to Mancini.   Tell him that they want him to be with them to try to make the playoffs and that they will decide whether to trade him or not in the off season.   I think he would still sign with them if its a fair deal.

No he wouldn’t.  He would just wait until he hits free agency so he can control his own destiny instead of letting the Orioles choose where he goes.  He’d probably be leaving money on the table because he loses the ability to negotiate with all 30 teams. 

[ArtVanDelay]

9 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Mancini is absolutely not under any impression whatsoever that he's staying in Baltimore. In every interview this season, from spring training until recently, he's made it clear that he understands he may not be staying with the team. He knows it's a possibility he could be traded.

If he signs a contract extension then he would be under the impression that he’s staying in Baltimore. 

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll have what he’s having.   

The real issue is, will our pitching hold up for the remaining 75 games?   You want to know why we’re winning?   Since June 16, our starters have a 2.55 ERA.  Now, they’re still not going deep into games (5.22 IP/start in that stretch), but they’re keep us in the game and frequently handing the bullpen a lead.   In that time:

Wells 26.0 IP, 6 ER (5 starts)

 Kremer 28.1 IP, 5 ER (5)

Lyles 25.2 IP, 8 ER (4)

Watkins 17.2 IP, 2 ER (3)

Voth 18.0 IP, 6 ER (5)

Bradish 4.1 IP, 6 ER (1)

 Toss out the injured Bradish and the others are at 2.18 ERA since June 16, with nobody higher than 3.00.   

Starting pitching is seen as our biggest weakness (rightly, IMO), but for 3.5 weeks it’s been our strength.    And that’s why we’re winning right now.  

There is really a lot more to it than that.

1) The defense is much improved.  Better range and playing better as a unit.  They still make errors and give up unearned runs but they get to balls that they didn't last year.

2) The catchers are better.   Pitchers can throw pitches in the dirt without the worry of them going to the back stop.  The pitchers have confidence in what Adley and Chirinos are calling.

3) The pitching coaches are teaching the pitchers new pitches that are being used in games.  The whole analysis of the pitchers strengths and the batters weakness seem to be better this season.

Its not just the starters its the whole staff.

Watkins has two more pitches than when he started with the O's and while he is not an above average talent working in this environment seem to work for him.  Same with Voth.  And pitchers with above average stuff like Tyler Wells and Kremer are thriving.

The ability of the coaching staff to address pitchers weaknesses makes me think that Bradish's straight fastball will be changed and he will come back to help the team.  And that DL Hall will improve and help the O's for a while this season.

Then they is Matt Harvey.  Putting him with this defense and catching team and may be able to help.

The pitching may not be in as bad a shape as many think.

 

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

No he wouldn’t.  He would just wait until he hits free agency so he can control his own destiny instead of letting the Orioles choose where he goes.  He’d probably be leaving money on the table because he loses the ability to negotiate with all 30 teams. 

Maybe, maybe not.  In the off season Elias will look at the offers and returns.  He may find the trading Santander is better that trading Mancini.  So maybe Mancini stays for a year or two.   Mancini like being an Oriole.  If there is chance to stay he may take it.

Mancini and Elias may just negotiate that mutual option so it works for both of them.

[shakester23]

The O's recent success had me wondering what is the latest point (by date or number of games) in a season that all teams in a division were .500 or above since the 5-team division format was implemented.  I tried to search this this to no avail.  Anyone have any idea?  

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is really a lot more to it than that.

1) The defense is much improved.  Better range and playing better as a unit.  They still make errors and give up unearned runs but they get to balls that they didn't last year.

2) The catchers are better.   Pitchers can throw pitches in the dirt without the worry of them going to the back stop.  The pitchers have confidence in what Adley and Chirinos are calling.

3) The pitching coaches are teaching the pitchers new pitches that are being used in games.  The whole analysis of the pitchers strengths and the batters weakness seem to be better this season.

Its not just the starters its the whole staff.

Watkins has two more pitches than when he started with the O's and while he is not an above average talent working in this environment seem to work for him.  Same with Voth.  And pitchers with above average stuff like Tyler Wells and Kremer are thriving.

The ability of the coaching staff to address pitchers weaknesses makes me think that Bradish's straight fastball will be changed and he will come back to help the team.  And that DL Hall will improve and help the O's for a while this season.

Then they is Matt Harvey.  Putting him with this defense and catching team and may be able to help.

The pitching may not be in as bad a shape as many think.

 

I don’t really disagree with anything you’ve said here.  There are reasons to believe the pitching can continue to do well.   But, I just don’t think we know yet.   It’s an area of uncertainty.   

The starters had an ERA of 5.39 in the first 64 games of the year, and averaged 4.59 IP/start.   Same defense, same coaches.   So why are they suddenly so much better?

1.   Kremer in.   He joined the rotation on June 5, and has a 2.15 ERA.

2.  Watkins back.  He was great in April and early May, had three rough starts and was shut down.  In his three starts since returning on June 25, he’s been excellent.   

3.  Voth in.   He’s just now built up to 5 IP, but he’s kept us in the game in his short starts before handing it over to the pen.  

4.  Bradish out.  He last pitched on June 18, and was sporting a 7.38 ERA.   I still believe in him long term (either as a starter or in the pen), but in the short term, he was killing us.

5.  Zimmermann out.   He last started on June 15; not coincidentally, our run of good pitching began the day after he was optioned.   He has a 5.85 ERA and it was sinking like a stone when he was sent down.  

6.  Good pitching by Wells and Lyles.   They were in the rotation already, and pitching solidly, but have picked it up in the current stretch.  

Overall I am expecting significant regression from this group, but I’m hoping they can continue to be an improvement over what the rotation looked like through mid-June.  

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, shakester23 said:

The O's recent success had me wondering what is the latest point (by date or number of games) in a season that all teams in a division were .500 or above since the 5-team division format was implemented.  I tried to search this this to no avail.  Anyone have any idea?  

I heard this morning the AL East got there in July 2012.

The eventual 69-93 Red Sox were 55-55 on August 6th, about the day Manny Machado made his MLB debut.

How fun would it be to line switch out a few of those lines a decade later.    You can't predict baseball.