Keep Mancini Thread

[owknows]

18 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

But, if they receive a trade offer that is good for the future that should supersede them chasing the wild card a season or two early right. The trade might not appear more than the current value to the team when it’s made….so how would you gauge it? You have to trust Elias and he’s said he’s not giving guys away. 

I take Elias at his word.

And I also think that in the absence of a known quantity bat to plug in if Mancini was traded, he recognizes that Mancini has as great or greater a value to the Orioles as he does to most other teams. So the offer would have to be pretty good.

 i personally don't think the offers for Mancini will be as great as his value to this team.

So if I were to hazard a guess... I'd say he probably stays.

Not necessarily wishing for it as much as predicting it.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

But, it’s an overpay by the Mets per year. 

It’s not the worst contact in the world.  Two year commitment, team option if he does well.   He’ll certainly earn his saiary this year, based on WAR valuations.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

Yes, if you look at the straight numbers.  Or 3.7 in 2019, pre cancer, and 2.0 in 78 games so far this year.  So maybe he's actually a 4 win player currently.  So maybe you're actually buying into a 4, 3.5, 3 win player.  If I was his agent at least, that's what I'd be selling.

Luckily we don't have to look at the unrealistically optimistic scenario.

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s not the worst contact in the world.  Two year commitment, team option if he does well.   He’ll certainly earn his saiary this year, based on WAR valuations.  

Well I quess it depends how much you think a win is worth. Canha is worth 1.4 so far and if you buy into a WAR for a fielder being 7 million then he will earn it. But, I’m not paying that for a 1B/DH type if im a GM. Also, I’m not sure how good Canha is defensively in the OF but he’s played no DH, 2 games at 1B, 63 in LF but also has a few in CF (5), and 6 in RF. So I don’t think he’s as defensively limited as Trey. BTW, the Mets are said to be looking for a DH so perhaps they are interested in Trea.

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Well I quess it depends how much you think a win is worth. Canha is worth 1.4 so far and if you buy into a WAR for a fielder being 7 million then he will earn it. But, I’m not paying that for a 1B/DH type if im a GM. Also, I’m not sure how good Canha is defensively in the OF but he’s played no DH, 2 games at 1B, 63 in LF but also has a few in CF (5), and 6 in RF. So I don’t think he’s as defensively limited as Trey. BTW, the Mets are said to be looking for a DH so perhaps they are interested in Trea.

We all talk about "not paying that for a 1B/DH type".  @Frobbyknows an easy way to look, but are there really that many guys on league minimum with 2-3 WAR for a 1B/DH type?  Are they really a dime a dozen?

[MarCakes21]

2 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

We all talk about "not paying that for a 1B/DH type".  @Frobbyknows an easy way to look, but are there really that many guys on league minimum with 2-3 WAR for a 1B/DH type?  Are they really a dime a dozen?

A quick look down the fangraphs list lets me see Christian Walker, Ty France, Garrett Cooper, Patrick Wisdom, and Josh Naylor as the only guys who might be making less than Mancini but are a 1B/DH with similar WARs.  I didn't cross reference contracts.  So are they really a dime a dozen?

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

A quick look down the fangraphs list lets me see Christian Walker, Ty France, Garrett Cooper, Patrick Wisdom, and Josh Naylor as the only guys who might be making less than Mancini but are a 1B/DH with similar WARs.  I didn't cross reference contracts.  So are they really a dime a dozen?

So … I think it’s probably the small and mid market teams that would be less likely to overpay a 1B/DH type. Probably shouldn’t have said overpay but I think more than 10 million of your money. He #16 payroll team is the Rockies at 95 million. I guess you could argue that it depends who else is getting paid on that team. But, would you really want to pay a limited defensive player more than 10% of your payroll?

[MarCakes21]

13 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So … I think it’s probably the small and mid market teams that would be less likely to overpay a 1B/DH type. Probably shouldn’t have said overpay but I think more than 10 million of your money. He #16 payroll team is the Rockies at 95 million. I guess you could argue that it depends who else is getting paid on that team. But, would you really want to pay a limited defensive player more than 10% of your payroll?

I guess that's a good example and one I somehow missed.  They've got CJ Cron, signed at 7.5/year and found in a scrap heap a bit lucky.  So yea, if I knew I could get approx 3WAR for 10-15mil, I'd do it.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I guess that's a good example and one I somehow missed.  They've got CJ Cron, signed at 7.5/year and found in a scrap heap a bit lucky.  So yea, if I knew I could get approx 3WAR for 10-15mil, I'd do it.

Even if it’s 10% of your payroll and knowing that it’s for a DH/1B type? And you have Mountcastle plus you will be looking to save Adley by DHing him 2-3 days a week when you can find a better back up?

I wouldnt

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Even if it’s 10% of your payroll and knowing that it’s for a DH/1B type? And you have Mountcastle plus you will be looking to save Adley by DHing him 2-3 days a week when you can find a better back up?

I wouldnt

2-3 days a week of DH'ing Adley? That is really high. And I wouldn't DH him vs LHP.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

2-3 days a week of DH'ing Adley? That is really high. And I wouldn't DH him vs LHP.

Yes …. If Adley is your generation talent you can preserve him by not catching him 6 or 7 days per week.

[DirtyBird]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Yes …. If Adley is your generation talent you can preserve him by not catching him 6 or 7 days per week.

Maybe not, but you catch him 5 and only use him as DH vs RHP. Give him a day off vs LHP. You don't draft an elite catcher 1-1 and DH them 30-40% of the games.

[Roll Tide]

40 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Maybe not, but you catch him 5 and only use him as DH vs RHP. Give him a day off vs LHP. You don't draft an elite catcher 1-1 and DH them 30-40% of the games.

I’m not giving up on him yet vsLHP. I’d be okay with 5 days per week. Still not enough there to over a DH/1P on an overpay 

[DirtyBird]

13 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I’m not giving up on him yet vsLHP. I’d be okay with 5 days per week. Still not enough there to over a DH/1P on an overpay 

What should our DH budget be moving forward?

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

What should our DH budget be moving forward?

It would depend on the payroll and the circumstances.

not 10% of our payroll 

I would hope to we can produce one of these every 4 or 5 year and move them when they get expensive. 
 

if I were in charge and could talk to Trey, I’d see if he’d accept 3 years at 7 or 8 million per. I’d think he take that deal as his girlfriend is established here and he likes the team. If he needs a spiff you could add some incentive stuff so if you had to pay more it would be at value for his production.