Keep Mancini Thread

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Round A (picks 33-39), or Round B (67-74)?

For what it’s, worth, 50% of players picked 33-39 have reached the majors the average value of a 33-39 pick is 3.3 rWAR.   41% of players picked 67-74 have reached the majors, and the average pick in that range is worth 2.6 rWAR.

Logic tells you that Trey Mancini is not going to be worth 2.6 rWAR in the final two months of 2022.    Therefore, yes you’d trade him for the comp pick regardless of whether it’s Round A or B, unless you think there’s a significant chance that he helps to get the O’s to the playoffs this year.   

I agree with that, but that's average value.  That means likely over 5 years middling as 0.5 rWAR players though on the average.  So yes, dollar wise its more valuable to move, but 2.6 rWAR over 2 months vs 5 years isnt overly comparable.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

28 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Mark Canha says hi.  2 years old, similar defense profile, worse hitter.

Career wise they have virtually the same OPS+ 116 for Trey and 115 for Canha. Trey if he stays healthy is most likely looking at a 2 or 3 year deal in free agency. 

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I agree with that, but that's average value.  That means likely over 5 years middling as 0.5 rWAR players though on the average.  So yes, dollar wise its more valuable to move, but 2.6 rWAR over 2 months vs 5 years isnt overly comparable.

I think understand and agree with your point, but it’s the best I can do with the amount of time I have available.  You’ve got a wide array of possible player outcomes individually.   You’ve got less than a 10% chance of getting a player who has as good a career as Mancini (or better), but you could get someone way more valuable, someone who’s merely serviceable or replacement level, or someone who never reaches the majors.   There’s probably a better way to analyze it than just weighing the average career outcome against Mancini’s expected two month projected outcome, but I’ll leave that to Sig.   

[MarCakes21]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think understand and agree with your point, but it’s the best I can do with the amount of time I have available.  You’ve got a wide array of possible player outcomes individually.   You’ve got less than a 10% chance of getting a player who has as good a career as Mancini (or better), but you could get someone way more valuable, someone who’s merely serviceable or replacement level, or someone who never reaches the majors.   There’s probably a better way to analyze it than just weighing the average career outcome against Mancini’s expected two month projected outcome, but I’ll leave that to Sig.   

I appreciate the analysis, and it makes sense to me.  I'm just saying, if it were a bifurcated solution, I'd take the bird in hand (if it were that easy) and take Trey for 3/$36 at ~3WAR per year rather than a lottery ticket for a potential FV of 3 WAR average.

Now if I could guarantee if I could double my value, and trade him and resign him, then let's do it.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

 

Now if I could guarantee if I could double my value, and trade him and resign him, then let's do it.

We call that the Bordick Gambit. 

[tntoriole]

I have been a huge Trey fan since before he came up and many were saying he would not stick. 
 

But if the return is what Elias thinks is better, then I have no problem sending him 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Career wise they have virtually the same OPS+ 116 for Trey and 115 for Canha. Trey if he stays healthy is most likely looking at a 2 or 3 year deal in free agency. 

But, it’s an overpay by the Mets per year. 

[owknows]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No fan is going to be alienated by trading Trey.  
 

This whole idea that it’s not nice to deal him, not good for him, etc..is bs.

If he’s your hero, you should want him to succeed and win.  

Alienated?

Probably not.

But I do question the wisdom of it.

If there is a chance to snag a wildcard spot, I consider it an obligation to try to achieve it provided it doesn't adversely impact the club's future.

And in looking at Mancini, I'd say he represents a greater value to the Orioles this season than he would likely return in a trade.

So if I were GM... I'd need a pretty strong offer to let him go.

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

So let's say it takes 3/$36 or so to extend Mancini, some combination of a discount for us and good will for him.  

And let's say he could get you some teams no. 10 prospect.

Do you make that deal?  Do you assume that Stowers can produce at OPS+ levels at or near Mancini for league min over the next 3 years at the same time?  If not, a year later your looking at trying to patch work your DH slot.  Why not take out some of the future risk with a minimal deal through his prime years.  

Definitely make the trade if the alternative is signing Mancini for the next three years for $36M to be a DH/1B. 

The Orioles should only rarely sign anyone to a contract past age 30, with the determining factor being if they're so good at 30 that even a half a win to a win decline a year makes the contract still worth it.  Also that they don't end up with a contract that theoretically breaks even on value but the player is likely average or worse through much of the deal.

Who cares if 3/36 is only paying for four wins, if you've locked in a player who you expect to be worth 1.5 wins a year?  You can find average players on one-year deals all the time.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, owknows said:

Alienated?

Probably not.

But I do question the wisdom of it.

If there is a chance to snag a wildcard spot, I consider it an obligation to try to achieve it provided it doesn't adversely impact the club's future.

And in looking at Mancini, I'd say he represents a greater value to the Orioles this season than he would likely return in a trade.

So if I were GM... I'd need a pretty strong offer to let him go.

 

 

How much of a chance?  Because right now, with everything going their way for month, they're sitting on about 8%.  In other words, a 92% chance of not making it.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

I appreciate the analysis, and it makes sense to me.  I'm just saying, if it were a bifurcated solution, I'd take the bird in hand (if it were that easy) and take Trey for 3/$36 at ~3WAR per year rather than a lottery ticket for a potential FV of 3 WAR average.

Now if I could guarantee if I could double my value, and trade him and resign him, then let's do it.

Mancini is 30 and has been worth an average of 2.4 wins per 162 games so far in his career.  A reasonable estimate of his value over the next three years is something like 2.5, 2, and 1.5 wins, not three per year.

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No fan is going to be alienated by trading Trey.  
 

This whole idea that it’s not nice to deal him, not good for him, etc..is bs.

If he’s your hero, you should want him to succeed and win.  

There are some here ….but, I think the fans that will be unhappy are the more casual fans.

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, owknows said:

Alienated?

Probably not.

But I do question the wisdom of it.

If there is a chance to snag a wildcard spot, I consider it an obligation to try to achieve it provided it doesn't adversely impact the club's future.

And in looking at Mancini, I'd say he represents a greater value to the Orioles this season than he would likely return in a trade.

So if I were GM... I'd need a pretty strong offer to let him go.

 

 

But, if they receive a trade offer that is good for the future that should supersede them chasing the wild card a season or two early right. The trade might not appear more than the current value to the team when it’s made….so how would you gauge it? You have to trust Elias and he’s said he’s not giving guys away. 

[MarCakes21]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Mancini is 30 and has been worth an average of 2.4 wins per 162 games so far in his career.  A reasonable estimate of his value over the next three years is something like 2.5, 2, and 1.5 wins, not three per year.

Yes, if you look at the straight numbers.  Or 3.7 in 2019, pre cancer, and 2.0 in 78 games so far this year.  So maybe he's actually a 4 win player currently.  So maybe you're actually buying into a 4, 3.5, 3 win player.  If I was his agent at least, that's what I'd be selling.

[owknows]

25 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

How much of a chance?  Because right now, with everything going their way for month, they're sitting on about 8%.  In other words, a 92% chance of not making it.

If they're a game or two out at the break, I'd take a shot at it.