I think Mateo has superstar potential

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

I am personally driven crazy by undisciplined hitters so that is music to the ears for me .

You are going to be extremely happy when Henderson, Westburg, Stowers and Cowser are up here.   

[btdart20]

He’s 27 and is just now starting full time.  His minor league OBP is .325. There’s not much more upside when his ML OBP is .270.  I do think he has some trade value because of the speed and defense.  But it’s fairly niche because most contenders have a SS already.  And a trade is unlikely because he means more to the O’s this season than others.  I’d love to be wrong but I do think this is peak value all things considered.  
 

Elias and Hyde could very well keep him at SS with Gunnar and Westburg at 3B and 2B respectively.  And Urias is the utility.  Just feels odd that the stud has to work around the not-quite-established “vet”.  But I would shop Mateo in the off season with Urias playing 3B.

Also, Adley’s promotion is the beginning of the new guard players with the plate discipline that aligns with the hitting instruction up and down the org now.  There are a few current guys who, while solid in their own way, are out of step with the future state of the team’s hitting philosophy.  Santander started buying in this year a bit and it’s done him well from an OBP perspective.  Mateo’s approach has stayed the same.  It’s a mismatch with coaching.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

He’s 27 and is just now starting full time.  His minor league OBP is .325. There’s not much more upside when his ML OBP is .270.  I do think he has some trade value because of the speed and defense.  But it’s fairly niche because most contenders have a SS already.  And a trade is unlikely because he means more to the O’s this season than others.  I’d love to be wrong but I do think this is peak value all things considered.  
 

Elias and Hyde could very well keep him at SS with Gunnar and Westburg at 3B and 2B respectively.  And Urias is the utility.  Just feels odd that the stud has to work around the not-quite-established “vet”.  But I would shop Mateo in the off season with Urias playing 3B.

Also, Adley’s promotion is the beginning of the new guard players with the plate discipline that aligns with the hitting instruction up and down the org now.  There are a few current guys who, while solid in their own way, are out of step with the future state of the team’s hitting philosophy.  Santander started buying in this year a bit and it’s done him well from an OBP perspective.  Mateo’s approach has stayed the same.  It’s a mismatch with coaching.

So, Mateo, Hays, and Mountcastle must go?

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So, Mateo, Hays, and Mountcastle must go?

So, Mateo, Hays, and Mountcastle must stay?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

So, Mateo, Hays, and Mountcastle must stay?

There are a few current guys who, while solid in their own way, are out of step with the future state of the team’s hitting philosophy.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So, Mateo, Hays, and Mountcastle must go?

 

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

So, Mateo, Hays, and Mountcastle must stay?

Nothing “must” happen but I wouldn’t be shocked if all three are gone in a year or two.  

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So, Mateo, Hays, and Mountcastle must go?

If I’m making cuts, Mateo would be the first out the door of those 3.  But I’m fine with trading any one of those 3 now.  My horizon is longer than 2022.

There’s more to evaluating a talent than how and when they swing the bat.  So the absolutes don’t fit as neatly in the front office.

[survivedc]

22 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

If I’m making cuts, Mateo would be the first out the door of those 3.  But I’m fine with trading any one of those 3 now.  My horizon is longer than 2022.

There’s more to evaluating a talent than how and when they swing the bat.  So the absolutes don’t fit as neatly in the front office.

Yes of course and Mateo is an excellent baserunner and defender at the 1st or 2nd most important defensive position. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

There are a few current guys who, while solid in their own way, are out of step with the future state of the team’s hitting philosophy.

 

5 hours ago, btdart20 said:

If I’m making cuts, Mateo would be the first out the door of those 3.  But I’m fine with trading any one of those 3 now.  My horizon is longer than 2022.

There’s more to evaluating a talent than how and when they swing the bat.  So the absolutes don’t fit as neatly in the front office.

 

5 hours ago, survivedc said:

Yes of course and Mateo is an excellent baserunner and defender at the 1st or 2nd most important defensive position. 

As people have said, philosophies aren't absolute. If the lineup is full of patient hitters, we can stomach a free swinger  in the 9-spot if he has the wheels and glove of Mateo. In some ways, the diversity of approach may be good for a given lineup to keep the pitcher on his toes.

[Moose Milligan]

I like watching Mateo too, but put me in the camp with the rest of the posters who think he's got a long way to go before solidifying himself as a long term piece.  Any hot streak should be met with a bit of skepticism, IMO.  Anointing him as a guy who's figuring it out is simply confirmation bias.  I'm sure Mario Mendoza had a few moments where people thought he could become a better hitter than he was but we saw how that ended up.

That said, I believe he should have the starting SS gig for the rest of the season and maybe to start 2023, too.  

But Henderson is knocking, it seems like he might be able to play SS.  And we just drafted Holliday who, hopefully, shoots through the system in a Bobby Witt type of way.  I mean, it's a positive problem to have.  And it's not just as simple as sliding him over to second base, Urias could have that spot held down, too.

He could blossom into an effective hitter.  But much like Mountcastle, I think if he has a spot on this team in the next 2-3 years as a starter, he's buoyed by guys in a lineup who are significantly better selective hitters than him.  Having Mateo in his current form in a lineup with guys who are also hackers isn't good.  Having Mateo in a lineup with more guys who trend towards AR's approach to hitting is acceptable if he's still bringing that SS defense and speed to the table.  

As far as trade value goes, I'm sure a team that's in contention and needs better SS defense would like to have him.  What would they trade for that?  Not sure.  But I can't imagine it would be a whole lot.  

Whatever.  He's fun to watch, he's been a big part of this team and I'm excited to see what he can do the rest of the way.   I'm not ready to make any proclamations that he's figuring it out as a hitter.