Wild Card Contenders remaining schedules

[rm5678]

12 hours ago, Going Underground said:

Better if Toronto or Tampa Bay sweep and the Orioles sweep the Nationals. 5 game pickup in the loss column.Probably wont hapoen but should have a pretty good idea where the Orioles stand by Friday.

And the Jays and Rays also have a 4-game series coming up at the Trop. So it's theoretically possible that one of those teams wins most of their 9 head-to-head games, and that would help us considerably. 

[emmett16]

We have a tough schedule.  The Rays have a Similarly very difficult schedule.  Tex 3, Astros 7 games,  Tor 4, CLE 3 (fighting for their life), & Sox to play spoiler 3.  
 

It might come down to how we play against Detroit vs. how TB plays against  Tex.  
 

Crazier things have happened.  

[eddie83]

27 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

We have a tough schedule.  The Rays have a Similarly very difficult schedule.  Tex 3, Astros 7 games,  Tor 4, CLE 3 (fighting for their life), & Sox to play spoiler 3.  
 

It might come down to how we play against Detroit vs. how TB plays against  Tex.  
 

Crazier things have happened.  

Three of the games which are at Houston at the end may be meaningless for Houston. 
 

That said TB schedule is rough. 

[Sports Guy]

Tampa has so many injuries right now too.  They have dealt with them all year but they keep piling on for them.

They aren’t a lock by any means.

[eddie83]

Games with contenders today
 

White Sox at Cleveland 1:10 pm MLBN

TB at Toronto 3:07pm

KC at Minn 7:40pm 

 

Chicago and Minnesota are not really concerns for the Orioles. If either winds up with a better record the Orioles would not be a contender anyway. Cleveland is now 76-65 and they have a 4 game lead over CWS and a 5 game lead over MINN.   Must win for CWS.  
 

If TB wins today the Orioles are 4 games back in the loss column of both TB and TOR. TOR win the Orioles are 5 back of TOR and 3 back of TB which is really 3.5 behind since they have the tiebreaker.  

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Games with contenders today
 

White Sox at Cleveland 1:10 pm MLBN

TB at Toronto 3:07pm

KC at Minn 7:40pm 

 

Chicago and Minnesota are not really concerns for the Orioles. If either winds up with a better record the Orioles would not be a contender anyway. Cleveland is now 76-65 and they have a 4 game lead over CWS and a 5 game lead over MINN.   Must win for CWS.  
 

If TB wins today the Orioles are 4 games back in the loss column of both TB and TOR. TOR win the Orioles are 5 back of TOR and 3 back of TB which is really 3.5 behind since they have the tiebreaker.  

Kevin Brown was all happy last night that Toronto had beaten Tampa.  I would have preferred the opposite.  

[eddie83]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Kevin Brown was all happy last night that Toronto had beaten Tampa.  I would have preferred the opposite.  

Yes he was. Certainly makes it harder to control your own destiny. Have to see what happens today. 
 

This weekend I think holding serve would be a good weekend. That said that is 3 fewer games to catch someone.  

[sportsfan8703]

So who do we root for today?  

[eddie83]

Some playoffs odds. Rounded up or down. 

 

BALTIMORE 
 

        Playoff odds                    Proj  record 

 

Baseball Ref.     13.7%             85-77
 

Baseball Prosp.   14.6%           85-77
 

Fangraphs          2.3%             83-79

 

CHICAGO WS

 

BR                    15.1%                  83-79

 

BP                     9.5%             82.5-79.5

 

FG                    14.5%                83-79

 

All 3 sites have CLE at 87-75 

All 3 sites have TB at 89-73

BP has TOR 92-70, other 2 are 91-71

BR has SEA 93-69, FG 92-70, BP 91-71

 

Note: CLE is 9-6 vs CWS. Win today for CLE would clinch season series as well as being up 5 games.  

[eddie83]

53 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So who do we root for today?  

I guess question is do we want to be 4 back in loss column of both with a TB win or 5 back in loss column of TOR and 3 back of TB with a TOR win. 
 

1st scenario means have to gain 4 games plus tiebreaker on Jays or 5 games vs TB.  2nd scenario gain 5 on TOR plus tiebreaker and 4 games on TB since we lose tiebreak. 
 

I said going into series 3-2 TOR would be worst case. At this point I’m leaning towards hoping TB scuffles. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by eddie83

[sportsfan8703]

I’m kind of hoping that Mclanahan throws a gem today and completely shuts down Toronto. Then we get Toronto off of that hangover for three. A good pitcher can put you into a slump. See what Manoah did to us. 

[SteveA]

I didn't realize that on the last day of the season, Wednesday October 3, all MLB games will start at roughly 4PM Eastern (all 4:05 and 4:10 except one that starts at 4:20).

I know they like to do that on the last day of the season, so that all teams fighting for playoff spots are playing simultaneously, rather than a team knowing an earlier result already.   All trying to duplicate the magic of the last day of 2011.

But I didn't know they had chosen 4PM.   I would have guessed 7PM.

[sportsfan8703]

Hopefully this puts the Toronto bats in a funk. 

[eddie83]

45 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I didn't realize that on the last day of the season, Wednesday October 3, all MLB games will start at roughly 4PM Eastern (all 4:05 and 4:10 except one that starts at 4:20).

I know they like to do that on the last day of the season, so that all teams fighting for playoff spots are playing simultaneously, rather than a team knowing an earlier result already.   All trying to duplicate the magic of the last day of 2011.

But I didn't know they had chosen 4PM.   I would have guessed 7PM.

My guess it’s because they want the teams who play in the playoffs to get a head start on travel. That’s usually not an issue since season normally ends on a Sunday. 

[eddie83]

 

NOTE: MINN hosts KC tonight. That game really doesn’t impact ORIOLES. CLE is 76-66. Lead CWS by 3, 4 in loss column. I kept BOSTON’S schedule up and took them off standings.  
 

                           The following is what it would take for BAL to make playoffs. NOTE: assumes BAL wins tiebreaker vs TOR.  
 

BAL RECORD.                  LEADERS RECORD
15-5                                  SEA 9-11
                                         TOR 9-9

                                         TB   9-10 
 

14-6                                  SEA  8-12

                                          TOR 8-10 

                                         TB 8-11

 

13-7                                 SEA   7-13

                                         TOR  7-11

                                         TB  7-12 

 

12-8                                SEA 6-14 

                                        TOR 6-12

                                        TB 6-13 

Goes without saying odds are against. 

 

ALWC                      W          L         GB             GR

- SEATTLE                80        62       +0.5            20

- TORONTO             81       63         +0.5            18

- TAMPA BAY           80       63         ——          19

———————————————————

BALTIMORE               75       67            4.5.     20

CWS                           74       70           6.5       18 

MINN                          71       70           8.0       21

———————————————————

SCHEDULES

BALTIMORE
 

@TOR 3    

DET  3      HOU  4

@BOS 4   @NYY  3      TOR  3

 

All other WC contenders 

 

——————————————————-

AL East 

TOR
 

   BAL 3        

@PHI   2     @TB   4      

NYY   3      BOS  3        @BAL 3

- - - - - - - - - - -

TB

 

TEX  3     
 

HOU  3     TOR 4     

@CLE 3     @HOU  3       @BOS  3

- - - - - - - - - - - -

BOS 

KC  3  

@CIN  2    @NYY  4

BAL 4   @TOR  3       @TB  3

 

———————————————————AL Central    Note: 1/3 will win division
 

CLE   

MINN 5  

 @CWS  3    @TEX  3

TB  3    KC   6    

- - - - - - - - - - - 

MINN

@CLE  5    

@KC  3     LAA   3  

CWS   3    @DET   3       @CWS   3

 

- - - - - - - -  - - - - - 
CWS 

  @DET  3  

CLE   3    DET  3

@MINN  3   @SDP  3      MINN  3

 

———————————————————

AL West

SEA

  @LAA  4    

@OAK  3    @KCR  3

TEX  3   OAK  3        DET  4