Two Hall of Famers in one draft?

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

#BetterThanBaines

#BainesbetterthenBradyAnderson

#BradywasbetterthanTommyMcCarthy

Edited September 1, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

39 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

According to the Baseball Hall of Fame, there have been about 22,000 players who have played in MLB, and 268 have made it to the HOF (1.2%).  

If my math is correct, assuming either player making it to the HOF is an independent event, you multiply 1.2% x 1.2% to determine the chance that BOTH are hall of famers, which is 0.0144%. That's like 6900 to 1 odds. 

I like the math, but this is only valid if you treat Adley and Gunnar as randomly selected MLBers, which we know they're very much not.

Also they're not independent.  Their combined successes will lead to multiple championships, which adds to their HOF resumes.

[DrungoHazewood]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And Jack Morris has no business being in the HOF.

Where do you want to draw the line?  There are 13 or 14 current HOF pitchers with a lower rWAR total than Morris.  Not even including the Negro Leaguers.  Probably eight or nine if you exclude the relievers.  Morris was quite a bit better than guys like Rube Marquard and Jesse Haines, and that's before you adjust for the slope of history and the fact those guys never faced an integrated team. 

No matter where you draw your line in the sand there will always be borderline cases.  I was never a Morris advocate, but the Hall is what it is, and Marquard, Haines have been in for over 50 years.  They put Jack Chesbro in in 1946 and he had about 5-6 good seasons, one really good season. 

My opinion is that they broke the model of only inducting the super-super stars around WWII, and we're never going back. So it's a big Hall, like it or not.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

According to the Baseball Hall of Fame, there have been about 22,000 players who have played in MLB, and 268 have made it to the HOF (1.2%).  

If my math is correct, assuming either player making it to the HOF is an independent event, you multiply 1.2% x 1.2% to determine the chance that BOTH are hall of famers, which is 0.0144%. That's like 6900 to 1 odds. 

https://giphy.com/gifs/jim-carrey-dumb-and-dumber-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance-ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

According to the Baseball Hall of Fame, there have been about 22,000 players who have played in MLB, and 268 have made it to the HOF (1.2%).  

If my math is correct, assuming either player making it to the HOF is an independent event, you multiply 1.2% x 1.2% to determine the chance that BOTH are hall of famers, which is 0.0144%. That's like 6900 to 1 odds. 

https://giphy.com/gifs/jim-carrey-dumb-and-dumber-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance-ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu

[Hallas]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What percentage of players in MLB history are Hall of Famers?  There are 268 players who've been inducted as players.  Probably a handful more who were really players but pre-1876, so let's just say 275.  Gunnar Hendeson was the 22,806th player in MLB history according to Baseball Reference.  That means 1% of MLB players get a plaque, give or take.

We know that Henderson (and Rutschman) are more highly regarded than an average MLB player, far more, really.  Those 22,806 includes Jeff Tackett, Ryan Flaherty, Caleb Joseph, David Newhan.  Players who had essentially 0% chance of going to the Hall when they were called up.  They were often just too old to have 10 productive years, and just not talented enough.

If you look at #1 overall picks there were 45 between 1965 and 2010.  ARod, Chipper, Griffey, Mauer, Baines... all either HOFers, soon to be, or would be if not for PEDs.  Bryce Harper is a probable HOFer.  Strasburg, Cole, Correa, Price... plausible.  So among #1 picks we're looking at let's say seven out of 45, or 16%.  

#2 there are three out of 45, or 7%.  But think about it... these draft comps aren't that gret because even top picks have to navigate the minors, and many don't get there with the fanfare of Gunnar or Adley. There have been five #2s through 2015 who never played in the majors.  Another 15 or so didn't really do anything in the majors. Pick a name... Tyler Houston.  #2 overall in '89, had a .686 OPS in the minors, didn't reach the majors until 1996, clearly not on Gunnar or Adley's level as a prospect.

What would probably be useful is to look at Baseball America top five overall prospects and see what level of success they had.  But I don't know of a simple way to do that.

They've been handing out Rookie of the Year awards since 1947, one for MLB the first two years, one for each league since so 134 total.  We don't have a great gauge on the careers of the recent ones, so lets knock off the last 14 and stop at 2015.  Roughly 25 of them are or will/should be HOFers, or 21%.  

So I haven't really quantified their odds, but it has to be much more than 1%.  Just not quite sure how much more.  I'd guess something like 10-20%.  If they have a solid first 2-3 years that will go up pretty rapidly.

With Rutschman, limiting it to top-5 expands the prospect pool a little too much IMO.  There is rarely more than 1 70 OFP prospect a year, and it remains to be seen if even Henderson reaches that threshold.  I have a feeling he's going to grade out to a 65 unless he absolutely murders the ball in september.

[Jagwar]

11 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I like the math, but this is only valid if you treat Adley and Gunnar as randomly selected MLBers, which we know they're very much not.

Also they're not independent.  Their combined successes will lead to multiple championships, which adds to their HOF resumes.

I like your optimism!

And I know the variables aren't entirely independent, but we math geeks like to make assumptions that make the proofs more elegant. Anyway, what players actually end up staying on the field together for more than 5-6 seasons now?