Ben Clemens explains why Fangraphs rates the O’s playoff odds so low

[Hallas]

46 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is where I'm at.  Every time I go there, I just can't stand it.  I dunno if it's the colors they use on their page but I can't stand Fangraphs.  I understand the work that they do, I understand they're nerds, that's all good and well.  But there's something about the writing there that rubs me the wrong way.  So yes, they can F off indeed.

I'm with this, too.  It's a lot of fun and I couldn't give a Frenchman's **** about what Fangraphs predictions are for the final month of the season.  I mean, I get it, they're in the prediction business because that gets fans riled up and gives us something to chew on but whatever.  I side with @Tony-OHon this, they can talk all about their projections all they want, and that's fine.  But they can't take that pesky human element into account, the thing that drives all of the stat nerds crazy, the variable that they'll never be able to account for.  That's what makes this whole thing fun.  

I love Szymborski's articles.  He's an O's fan and will always find an excuse to write about interesting things with the club.  He released a Gunnar article at the same time Ben Clemens wrote about the O's projections.

 

That said I think the quality at Fangraphs has taken a hit since Dave Cameron left.  It seems like they've been having funding issues and they seem to have been running a carousel of writers since then.  The other issue, and this is kind of tragic, is that MLB as an organization has taken the interest in sites like Fangraphs as an opportunity to release their own advanced analytical data.  And literally no one can compete with MLB, because they can install advanced systems at every ballpark to track everything that happens on a baseball field  This doesn't completely obviate the need for sites like Fangraphs, but it certainly reduces the scope of their work.  10-20 years ago Fangraphs was ahead of the curve with more advanced defensive metrics.  Then MLB came around and released Statcast, and then released OAA, which made every other defensive tracker obsolete.

Edited September 1, 2022 by Hallas

[DrungoHazewood]

I think someone on here needs to come up with a projection system that just shows the O's winning 93 games and the World Series and then everyone will be happy.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think someone on here needs to come up with a projection system that just shows the O's winning 93 games and the World Series and then everyone will be happy.

Well, the projection system doesn't really believe what the Orioles are doing is legit but after the season is over the numbers they didn't project for this season will be used to make projections for next year.   Just saying.

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think someone on here needs to come up with a projection system that just shows the O's winning 93 games and the World Series and then everyone will be happy.

Ohangometer projections system:

Orioles record since July 3rd: 33-17

Extrapolated over 162 games:

107 - 55 

End result of the Ohangometer  projections system: The Orioles are the best team in the American League and maybe baseball.

There!

 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ohangometer projections system:

Orioles record since July 3rd: 33-17

Extrapolated over 162 games:

107 - 55 

End result of the Ohangometer  projections system: The Orioles are the best team in the American League and maybe baseball.

There!

 

Dodgers are on pace to win 112 and are underperforming their Pythagorean.

Not meant as a slight to the O's but man the Dodgers have been good.

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Dodgers are on pace to win 112 and are underperforming their Pythagorean.

Not meant as a slight to the O's but man the Dodgers have been good.

They should be, they have one of the best teams baseball can buy!

[DrungoHazewood]

40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Dodgers are on pace to win 112 and are underperforming their Pythagorean.

Not meant as a slight to the O's but man the Dodgers have been good.

It's almost like a $300M budget can buy more players than the standard $130M.  Who knew?

[Lurker]

23 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Models can't take into consideration the coaching and the integrations of advanced analytics they are getting vs what other may be not getting. The one constant in all of the Orioles pitchers "playing over their heads" is perhaps the system they belong to. 

I've seen pitchers with new and improved pitches, better use of their repertoires, and he ability to attack hitters in the most conducive way of having success. 

No algorithm is going to be able to access that because they work of using mass amounts of data.

I'll admit, I'm never cared much for any of the prediction algorithms like STEAMER or ZIPS or any other ones because there are too many human factors involved that can only be generalized across players not the individual.  

Now if Fangraphs had to give out betting odds on their low percentage, I bet we'd see a little more realistic odds for a team a few games out. This reeks of them trying to cover their butts for a system that is really unable to accurately access surprise breakout teams like the 2022 Orioles.

THIS.

 

Also remember that the main purpose of fan graphs (and other similar sites)is not  to provide information for the fans, but to influence gambling in one form or another. 

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They should be, they have one of the best teams baseball can buy!

 

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's almost like a $300M budget can buy more players than the standard $130M.  Who knew?

Despite the payroll it is still noteworthy how well put together the team is.  Their farm system is also first rate.

This isn't a case of just throwing money around.

Comes off as sour grapes to dismiss what they've accomplished.

[eddie83]

27 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

They should be, they have one of the best teams baseball can buy!

 

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's almost like a $300M budget can buy more players than the standard $130M.  Who knew?

I think this is a bit unfair. Clearly they have a ton of money but look at who they have drafted/signed as Int players. Plus great under the radar pickups. 
 

Drafted 

Gonsolin

Kershaw- I know long time ago 

May 

Smith 

Lux

Bellinger 

Urias (AFA)

Brought in Turner when he wasn’t anything special. Got Muncy off the scrap heap. Had enough prospects to trade for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer last year. 
 

Now clearly they have the money to sign FA’s and retain their own as well as sign Betts to a long term deal. That said they have been the best organization in the sport for awhile now. 

Edited September 2, 2022 by eddie83

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

Despite the payroll it is still noteworthy how well put together the team is.  Their farm system is also first rate.

This isn't a case of just throwing money around.

Comes off as sour grapes to dismiss what they've accomplished.

Beat me to it. Exactly. 

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

Despite the payroll it is still noteworthy how well put together the team is.  Their farm system is also first rate.

This isn't a case of just throwing money around.

Comes off as sour grapes to dismiss what they've accomplished.

It's sports.  Sour grapes is foundational to being a fan.  Every day I root for all the other teams to lose, even if that's physically impossible.

Edited September 2, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

THIS.

 

Also remember that the main purpose of fan graphs (and other similar sites)is not  to provide information for the fans, but to influence gambling in one form or another. 

Oh really?   What makes you say so?   What does the site get out of influencing gambling?

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, Lurker said:

THIS.

 

Also remember that the main purpose of fan graphs (and other similar sites)is not  to provide information for the fans, but to influence gambling in one form or another. 

I don't think this is true at all. In fact, in the last year Baseball Reference had some polls they sent out to subscribers asking if we wanted more odds and betting information, and if they should take substantial amounts of money from gambling sites in exchange for being more in bed with that kind of thing.  Might even lower subscription rates.  The response was overwhelmingly negative and they didn't do it. Sean Foreman didn't take the big check because he wants to stay mainly a reference site, not a tool of the bookies.

[JR Oriole]

Man, the National League has some great teams.  The Mets and Braves may both win 100 and they both seem to be slump proof.  The Phillies have played .638 ball for HALF a season since they fired Girardi.  And Harper missed 52 games.  The Cardinals have Arenado and Goldschmidt raking like mid-80s Ripken and Murray, and they have two other HOFers plus the ageless Wainwright heading into October.  And of course the Dodgers, who might win 106....again.  The AL is totally up for grabs.