2023 Arbitration

[btdart20]

Some guys are due for raises...  Any guesses/thoughts on who gets how much?

Here are my guesses:

Santander - arb2 - $6-6.5m

Gallagher - arb2 - $900k

Voth - arb2 - $1.6m

Mullins - arb1 - $4-5m - I used Austin Riley/Bryan Reynolds got in 2022 as comps.

Hays - arb1 - $1-1.3m - Josh Naylor/Jon Berti range.  No way he's DFA'd, but he's definitely in no man's land...  Maybe he's the righty side of a platoon (vs LHP) and find someone strong against RHP?

Tate - arb1 - $1.2m - I might be low on him.

Mateo - arb1 - $2.3-2.5m - Cavan Biggio/Nicky Lopez (honestly shocked these two were so close in arb1 last year).  Nicky Lopez posted an outlier/career year fWAR of 5.9 in 2021 while Mateo is 2.4 so far this year.  But Biggio was given the golden boy treatment to get over $2m.  Mateo better than both of those.  If he lands in that range, then that adds value to a trade too.

Mounty, Akin, Urias, Wells, Krehbiel, Bautista and all the rookies are pre-arb.  They'll likely be under $800k.

2022 Baltimore Orioles Payroll | RosterResource | FanGraphs Baseball

 

With Lyles (and no significant FA signings/trades/extensions), we're looking at around a $45-50m in-house/filler payroll.

Without Lyles, it'll be in the $40m range.

 

[Sports Guy]

I think Tate would be more like 1.5-1.8

[oriole]

I think the decision to use Lyles’ option will be a really good indicator as to how things go this off-season. If they take the option then it’s more of the same, if it’s denied then we could be looking at a higher tier FA SP signing. I doubt they spend $10m or whatever Lyles is owed AND spend on a good SP.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think the decision to use Lyles’ option will be a really good indicator as to how things go this off-season. If they take the option then it’s more of the same, if it’s denied then we could be looking at a higher tier FA SP signing. I doubt they spend $10m or whatever Lyles is owed AND spend on a good SP.

Well they could pick up the option and trade him.

[foxfield]

58 minutes ago, oriole said:

I think the decision to use Lyles’ option will be a really good indicator as to how things go this off-season. If they take the option then it’s more of the same, if it’s denied then we could be looking at a higher tier FA SP signing. I doubt they spend $10m or whatever Lyles is owed AND spend on a good SP.

 

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well they could pick up the option and trade him.

I think regardless of what else the Orioles do....Lyles option should be exercised.  If you sign two SP and have too many you can trade or stockpile.  There is no downside.  But not having him, even if he is just a very solid reliable innings eater, adds to the hole that would have to be filled.  I think letting him go speaks more to a tight wallet than keeping him....IMHO

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

I think regardless of what else the Orioles do....Lyles option should be exercised.  If you sign two SP and have too many you can trade or stockpile.  There is no downside.  But not having him, even if he is just a very solid reliable innings eater, adds to the hole that would have to be filled.  I think letting him go speaks more to a tight wallet than keeping him....IMHO

There is definitely downside.  You could end up having him on the team next year at a salary that is too much.

[foxfield]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is definitely downside.  You could end up having him on the team next year at a salary that is too much.

Again, IF he returns and does about the same...he will be somewhat overpaid.  On a roster that is full of underpaid players, that should not be an issue.  If him being slightly to moderately overpaid means we cannot spend any money...well that truly is a downside, but speaks to a larger problem.

[RZNJ]

If you sign Lyles for $10M does a team trade something for him at that salary?    I'd just as soon, decline the option and not take the risk that he might not be that easy to trade at that salary.

[btdart20]

13 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Lyles option should be exercised.  If you sign two SP and have too many you can trade or stockpile.  There is no downside.

I think we should raise the bar where we can.  I'm not opposed to bringing Lyles back, but there's limited upside to doing so.  The decision shouldn't be payroll related.  And $10m shouldn't prevent us from signing a TOR SP1 (or SP2 if that's the path they think best).  The downside (IMO) is the limited MLB IP available for some of the younger guys (Kremer, Hall, Bradish, Grayson).  They won't all pan out, but they need the chance to prove it.  Even in a year when the team is competing (at least that's how we should be operating going forward since we're not going to be able to sign SP1's annually).  

 

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well they could pick up the option and trade him.

An interesting path to arbitrage the SP market...  That's the type of discussion Elias needs to be having now.  Especially with teams in some type of competitive window who want to save a buck on an innings eater (Cle? Sea? Ari? KC? Mil? Tex? SF?  SD?).  But I'd prefer not having him in the rotation heading into 2023.  I wouldn't even mind eating some of that salary (as long as it still means we can sign our FA targets) if it sweetens the return.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Again, IF he returns and does about the same...he will be somewhat overpaid.  On a roster that is full of underpaid players, that should not be an issue.  If him being slightly to moderately overpaid means we cannot spend any money...well that truly is a downside, but speaks to a larger problem.

Lots of IFS in this post.  None of which I would be remotely interested in betting on.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If you sign Lyles for $10M does a team trade something for him at that salary?    I'd just as soon, decline the option and not take the risk that he might not be that easy to trade at that salary.

I think the only way you do it is if you have a trade already worked out..likely paying some portion of the deal.

End of the day though, I’m guessing it won’t be worth it so you just decline it.

[foxfield]

Remind me again what the option is.  I think it has a 1M buyout so if its 11M the cost is 10 if it's 10 the cost is 9.  We are paying 1M either way.   I am not so sure there is enough SP that he is a luxury at this price.  I get, he is not a front line starter.  But our pen is still young, and our expected SP includes two guys who haven't thrown much this year in Grayson and Means.  Means should return but not in the fist half.  And if it is determined that he isn't needed after exercising, I don't see how moving him would be difficult.  Probably won't get much...but I think you could move him.

I think he is undervalued.  He isn't great, but his consistency has allowed the pen to get rest and the pen has been a huge part of this seasons success.  Lyles will get no awards here or anywhere else, but his impact to the success of this team has been worthy of the $ spent in my opinion.  I will add, that if he doesn't return, I am not going to be heartbroken, I just think they are going to keep him.  It's close either way.

[Frobby]

Ben Clemens published an article in which he developed formulas for estimating arbitration salaries based on the previous season’s fWAR, position played (position player/starting pitcher/reliever) and tenure.  Those formulas are necessarily rough because they don’t account for performance and compensation in seasons before the one immediately preceding arbitration. But as a starting point, and assuming everyone’s fWAR increases proportionately from their current totals to the end of the year, here’s what his formulas yield:

Santander $7.7 mm

Mullins $5.5 mm

Mateo $4.3 mm

Voth $3.4 mm

Hays $3.0 mm

Tate $2.7 mm

Gallagher $700 k

I have to run now, but I’ll say I think most of those are higher than the player will get, once you add in the other factors.   Will comment further later if I have time. 

[oriole]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Remind me again what the option is.  I think it has a 1M buyout so if its 11M the cost is 10 if it's 10 the cost is 9.  We are paying 1M either way.   I am not so sure there is enough SP that he is a luxury at this price.  I get, he is not a front line starter.  But our pen is still young, and our expected SP includes two guys who haven't thrown much this year in Grayson and Means.  Means should return but not in the fist half.  And if it is determined that he isn't needed after exercising, I don't see how moving him would be difficult.  Probably won't get much...but I think you could move him.

I think he is undervalued.  He isn't great, but his consistency has allowed the pen to get rest and the pen has been a huge part of this seasons success.  Lyles will get no awards here or anywhere else, but his impact to the success of this team has been worthy of the $ spent in my opinion.  I will add, that if he doesn't return, I am not going to be heartbroken, I just think they are going to keep him.  It's close either way.

$11m if exercised.

Too much for Jordan Lyles, and if he’s traded it’d be a salary dump type of deal. You could easily justre-sign him in the off-season for far less, which I wouldn’t be opposed to.

 

Either way, I think since the arb players are still making so little that there is plenty of room to add a high impact SP. Lyles’ option would be an overpay plus he’d take up a spot that should’ve used as an upgrade. Rodriguez, Wells, and Kremer seems like solid locks. Means will be back at some point. I’d much prefer to see a FA starter anchoring the rotation than Lyles. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Mullins $5.5 mm

They do feel high.  Especially in context of recent arb rulings (though I just did a quick swag instead of a deep dive).

Mullins might be closer to your guess than mine.  No direct comps for him from last year.

Those numbers would put in-house payroll around $48-50m-ish without Lyles.  $60m-ish with Lyles.