Anthony Santander - Now a Core Player Going Forward?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

 

For those noting his OPS is still below .800 (albeit barely), his OPS+ is 124 which is pretty strong. I also like that he's more than doubled his career high walk total (albeit in more PAs, but still his OBP is .325 which is very respectable, particularly considering he was a sub-.300 OBP guy coming into the year.

I think many posts I have read this year have not taken into account the offensive environment of 2022, where the league OPS is down by 28 points from last year.   It’s actually down by 59 points from 2019.   And that’s the league as a whole — the O’s hitters also have the new LF dimensions to contend with.

Also, i think people fail to appreciate that the league OBP has slipped to .310.  For Santander to post a .325 OBP to date is impressive.   He’s had a nice offensive season in a year where offense is generally down.  

It’s funny, though — until four days ago he was having a bad September, .589 OPS for the month.  Even after hitting 6 homers in 4 days, his BA and OBP for September are subpar.  On the year though he’s been much improved.  

 

[Just Regular]

Was Trey Mancini ever a core player?

They are approximately the same guy.    I hope in Santander's 2024 walk year at the Trade Deadline Elias will feel his team is strong enough to keep all the good players the last two months.    I hope in 2023 Present Wins aren't deemed weak in value relative to Future Wins.

Same as Mancini, I feel no pressure to lock in FA seasons.

Mancini 3.18.1992 - 114 OPS+ in 3100 PA

Santander 10.19.1994 - 106 OPS+ in 1750 PA   (111 OPS+ if you exclude Rule 5 poor results when he was in the Show prematurely for 139 PA in 2017-2018).

Classic guy to measure your team by...is he the 2nd best or 6th best guy?

[LookinUp]

58 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't care if they're a new poster or not.  If you're going to start a thread, you're opening yourself up to ask your idea or your thoughts to be critiqued.  Everyone here has created a thread or made a post that they've been ribbed about, even @Sports Guy.  It wasn't a personal attack.  

Does this thread get started if he doesn't hit two homers again last night?  If you say yes, you're telling on yourself.  

 

Well I guess you taught him a lesson. Way to go!

It's the internet. I get it. You're going to do you. We all do. I just like the fact that new posters are joining the discussion. There are some good ones and I don't like the idea of chasing someone away so you can teach him not to couch an argument in terms of a small sample size.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, LookinUp said:

Well I guess you taught him a lesson. Way to go!

It's the internet. I get it. You're going to do you. We all do. I just like the fact that new posters are joining the discussion. There are some good ones and I don't like the idea of chasing someone away so you can teach him not to couch an argument in terms of a small sample size.

Wasn't trying to chase anyone away or teach anyone a lesson, really.  But okay, if you think that way I'm not going to try to change your mind.

But I'm glad we can agree that couching an argument in terms of a small sample size is silly.  

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Was Trey Mancini ever a core player?

They are approximately the same guy.    I hope in Santander's 2024 walk year at the Trade Deadline Elias will feel his team is strong enough to keep all the good players the last two months.    I hope in 2023 Present Wins aren't deemed weak in value relative to Future Wins.

Same as Mancini, I feel no pressure to lock in FA seasons.

Mancini 3.18.1992 - 114 OPS+ in 3100 PA

Santander 10.19.1994 - 106 OPS+ in 1750 PA   (111 OPS+ if you exclude Rule 5 poor results when he was in the Show prematurely for 139 PA in 2017-2018).

Classic guy to measure your team by...is he the 2nd best or 6th best guy?

No, Mancini isn’t a core guy on a very good team.  He may have been one for us but that’s because we sucked.

 

[Riggodrill44]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It is a good point about the plate discipline. The question is, does that continue going forward or is this a one year thing?  
 

I think it’s very likely his peak value is right now. His OPS appears to be headed in the direction of somewhere around 800.  He has a chance at 35 homers and 90+ RBIs.

That’s a very good year in a season where offense is down.

But his defense is also subpar and he doesn’t provide value on the bases either. 
 

And, of course, the biggest asterisk next to his season is that he has been healthy. That never happens for him and its a tough thing to rely on.

This is also his age 27 season, so seeing him peak at the age when players historically peak isn’t exactly surprising.

The question is, what can you get for him? You don’t move him just to move him but you certainly do shop him.

What about Judge? Here’s a year when he finally stayed healthy and he’s putting up crazy numbers. But he’s 31 going into free agency, Santander’s 4 years younger.

I thought at first , he’s the one they trade, now I’m not so sure. At worst he’s a competent DH. At best he’s a borderline AS. 

[Riggodrill44]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I also like player D.  The Os can’t live without him on the team but he has no value to anyone else.

That’s Odor, right? LOL

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Riggodrill44 said:

What about Judge? Here’s a year when he finally stayed healthy and he’s putting up crazy numbers. But he’s 31 going into free agency, Santander’s 4 years younger.

I thought at first , he’s the one they trade, now I’m not so sure. At worst he’s a competent DH. At best he’s a borderline AS. 

Judge has a history of monster seasons and this is his third season of 148 games or more.

That said, he has had a lot of injuries and I certainly wouldn’t want to bank on him for the next 7-10 years.

[Frobby]

Worth mentioning that Santander’s 33 homers are tied for 5th in the AL, one behind Ohtani.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Worth mentioning that Santander’s 33 homers are tied for 5th in the AL, one behind Ohtani.

So fewer homeruns than a pitcher?

Got it.

[jamalshw]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Was Trey Mancini ever a core player?

They are approximately the same guy.    I hope in Santander's 2024 walk year at the Trade Deadline Elias will feel his team is strong enough to keep all the good players the last two months.    I hope in 2023 Present Wins aren't deemed weak in value relative to Future Wins.

Same as Mancini, I feel no pressure to lock in FA seasons.

Mancini 3.18.1992 - 114 OPS+ in 3100 PA

Santander 10.19.1994 - 106 OPS+ in 1750 PA   (111 OPS+ if you exclude Rule 5 poor results when he was in the Show prematurely for 139 PA in 2017-2018).

Classic guy to measure your team by...is he the 2nd best or 6th best guy?

I think this is a very interesting point. Mancini had a monster age-27 season in 2019 with a 134 OPS+. Meanwhile, Santander is having a breakout season at age-27 this year with a 124 OPS+. By all metrics, Mancini's year was significantly better than Santander's but Mancini then went on to miss 2020 as he fought to overcome cancer. He did that, but has had a 106 OPS+ last year and this year. 

Mancini in 2019 would have been a core player in my eyes had he continued that level of production. The question is was his decline just because he peaked with a career year in 2019 or was it a result of his recovery or both? 

As for Santander, it depends how you define "core." Yes, he's not the best player on your team. By pure WAR (using BBRef for this), he's 8th on the team and 5th amongst position players. Of course, defense is a large part of that as Urias and Mateo are ahead of him. 

Offensively, Santander is behind Rutschman and Henderson (yes, SSS) in OSP. If you are limiting your definition of "core player" to that level of player, no he's not a core player, but he has been the team's 2nd or 3rd best offensive player and has produced well against LHP. He's got the highest slugging percentage on the team (unless you count Henderson, again, SSS).

To me, it's all about what we consider "core" to mean. Is it truly the 3-5 most important players on the team? If so, no, he's not a core player, but if it's guys we think are important parts of the current club and have value to be important parts of the teams in 2023 and 2024, then yes. He is core. 

Would I trade him this offseason? Probably not unless the return was a top end starter. Would I extend him? Also, no, but am I hoping he's part of the team the next couple years? Yes, because I think he's going to be a very solid DH/COF option for the club and a big bat. I would also have him do quite a bit of work at 1B over the winter. 

 

[LookinUp]

37 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Would I trade him this offseason? Probably not unless the return was a top end starter. 

I think he would be a solid piece in return for a top end starter. Kind of like Mullins. But each would need to be pared with a legit prospect like Westburg, Norby, or Stowers, at least. Probably would need a 3rd piece from FCL to A ball, too.

[SilverRocket]

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-anthony-santander-toes-workout-home-runs-20220928-ssdv6upijrf4rlw4tqnogvypni-story.html

Santander changed his training methods this past offseason and credits his season to that work. I think the improvement is legit and he has avoided injury, though his speed is what it is at this point.

I don't know that he's truly a core player, but with Hays struggling, Stowers still finding his footing, and Cowser only 26 games into AAA, he's filling a role that's not easily replaced within the system. He'll make a lot less money next season than an equivalent free agent.

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Worth mentioning that Santander’s 33 homers are tied for 5th in the AL, one behind Ohtani.

Also has a 0.00 ERA.

[pastorfan]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Worth mentioning that Santander’s 33 homers are tied for 5th in the AL, one behind Ohtani.

Career year, try to trade him. We don't need the DH spot tied up next year.