Getting to know Kodai Senga

[Just Regular]

His walk year with his team just ended the other day...it was new to me in this story he'd been requesting a posting for years but the Club exercised all its years before free agency.    No posting fee or draft pick penalties for the MLB signing Club to be.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/10/bc053c8a0b8c-baseball-hawks-ace-senga-to-test-mlb-free-agent-market.html

Koji Uehara threw about 1600 innings of 3.00 ERA ball before coming over; Senga is around 1350 innings of 2.40 ball.

Senga 1.30.1993 will turn 30 just before camps open, about the same as Blake Snell and Jorge Lopez.    He attained 180-ish innings twice as career highs, but most years just under 150.    Ohtani 7.5.1994 has been at 130 and 166 the last two years.

A highlight of I believe the famous forkball from the 2017 WBC:

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Just Regular

[btdart20]

Think he would sign for what we paid Lyles?  Maybe 2 yr/$28 with a club option year 3 for $20?

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Think he would sign for what we paid Lyles?  Maybe 2 yr/$28 with a club option year 3 for $20?

No

[Ridgway22]

Yes, please. Make it so, M.E.

 

Within a financially prudent framework, of course.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No

No to a Lyles deal?  Or no to the 2 yr/$28 deal?  Or no you just don’t want Senga?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

No to a Lyles deal?  Or no to the 2 yr/$28 deal?  Or no you just don’t want Senga?

I don't think a Lyles deal gets it done.

I think that if he wants to come stateside he's going to have multiple suitors.  The main reason the O's got Koji was they were willing to let him start when most teams reportedly were interested in him out of the pen.  (Which of course is where he ended up)

[bpilktree]

I am thinking 4 years 60-68 million will be around what he gets.  

[Just Regular]

Eduardo Rodriguez is a recent contract I think Senga will land near.

Last year the guys in that range ended up with approximately:

Eduardo 5 x 15

Stroman 3 x 24

J. Gray 4 x 14

Those were the only SP guarantees between $50mm and $100mm for 2022 free agents.

[Just Regular]

Roster Resource has the skeleton of the 2023 Free Agent Tracker published.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?&pos=sp

Syndergaard 8.29.1992 five months older is the only Age 30 SP listed who was worth more than one Win this past season.    He was okay today finishing the Braves and the part of his age-29 season after his 30th birthday.

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

No to a Lyles deal?  Or no to the 2 yr/$28 deal?  Or no you just don’t want Senga?

Lyles deal isn’t getting it done.  He would be a target of mine.  I’m guessing he gets 4 or more years. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Why would he choose to come to Baltimore? In essence, why would an elite Japanese pitcher choose to come to Baltimore?

1) A chance to win. This is likely.

2) A contract that ensures his financial security. This remains to be seen. 

3) A team experience that allows him to feel comfortable culturally. Baltimore has a checkered past in this regard.

4) A chance to pitch in a manner consistent with his previous success. In other words, he stays as a starting pitcher. He slots as a 2-3 on the current roster.

If the O's can provide him with all of those aspects, he and his agents will consider their offer. Otherwise, he plays for another team.

[Can_of_corn]

Even the chance to win would take some convincing.

Yes things are clearly trending up but if a team like the Dodgers come calling it's a bit harder to spin Baltimore as your chance to win destination.

Not sure how much weight the farm system has with international free agents.

Edited October 15, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Pickles]

I think most Asian players are going to prefer to sign on the West Coast all things considered equal.  There are always, of course, exceptions.

Good thread.  I didn't realize he was a FA this year, and only vaguely remember his name.

I won't say anything particularly wise, but we have seen: Japanese pitchers can be effective in the Majors.

I should expect the Os have scouted him and have a number for him.

[Frobby]

Here’s an old scouting report from Fangraphs (2017 I think);

“Senga has incredible arm strength and exploding fastball movement. He also throws enough strikes to start and has four pitches, but neither breaking ball (a low-90s cutter and a low-80s slider) has bat-missing action. His splitter does, though, and the fallback option for Senga is high-leverage relief in which he leans on his fastball and splitter. But Senga's ability to sustain big velo under a starter's workload will probably convince some teams that he can start in the big leagues, and those are the ones likely to offer him the most money.”

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0

Here’s a comment from Jeff Passan, who has Senga in the same FA tier as Rodon:

“Koudai Senga, RHSP: Teams have long awaited the day Senga comes to MLB, and with his free agency finally a reality, if he chooses to do so, he'll be one of the most popular players this winter. His stuff is unimpeachable: a fastball that hit 101.9 mph earlier this year and a split-fingered fastball that moves as if possessed. At 6-1, 200 pounds, Senga isn't necessarily imposing, but his numbers this season -- 124 innings, 89 hits, 40 walks, 137 strikeouts, seven home runs allowed, 2.03 ERA -- certainly qualify.”

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34585322/jeff-passan-early-2022-23-mlb-free-agency-tiers

Sounds to me like a guy who’s going to get $20-25 mm/yr for 4-5 years.

[Jim'sKid26]

So the breaking ball is not a strength. Do the O's have the wherewithal to fix his cutter or slider so that he has an effective third pitch? Seems like a thing that the pitching gurus have done before. 101 mph with and effective splitter and third pitch to keep guys off the FB could be worth a 4/$80M investment. I'm not sure he's worth that contract with just 2 MLB caliber pitches, however.

The other issue is workload. 124 innings is not a ton and he is not build like a prototypical starter.