SP Trade Targets Compared

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, oriole said:

100%? That’s pretty bold considering we’re literally talking about giving up multiple high end prospects with little to no major league service time for two years of a proven player. You can debate the merits of both approaches all day, but “100% false” is about as hyperbolic as it comes. 

He could go 110%.

[Camden Yards]

2 hours ago, oriole said:

I think we’ve got to let 2023 play out a while before any of us can make that determination. The bullpen advances last year could be a mirage. Rutschman could have the dreaded sophomore slump. I’m not saying I don’t think they’ll be a contender, because I do. I’m saying it’s not a great idea to start trading away  great prospects just for the opportunity to have any player for such a short amount of time when the O’s are still in the infancy stage of contention. 

I would add Wells, Voth, and Hall to the bullpen. Bautista (no mirage), Tate (solid and getting better), Baker (getting better), Perez (maybe will decline), Kriebhel (might decline), Akin, Baumann, etc are overall no mirage. If the starting pitching improves then that will lessen the weight on the bullpen. That is not counting any other pickups that Elias makes. The bullpen will be fine. 
I am not saying do dumb stuff but you have to take some calculated chances or you will waste the five-six years we have right now with Adley and Gunnar. 
Also there is nothing that says we can’t trade prospects for an elite pitcher and then lock that elite pitcher into a long term extension. 
 

[oriole]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No its not. Teams can trade prospects and still look out for the long term.

You are acting as if people are saying to trade every prospect for vet help.  That's not the case. You absolutely, 100% can do both...as most contending teams do.

I’d rather the Orioles function more like the Astros than the Padres, but that’s just me I guess. Not that one is inherently better or worse, like I said…it’s all subjective. But right now there is a lot of room in the payroll to add players. What is purpose of trading away future talent for proven talent when you can just buy the proven talent now and keep the future? 

If someone like Bieber cost something like Hall, Rom, and Urias then I feel like it might be worth the future sacrifice of one top prospect plus a redundant major league piece and a lower prospect. But Holliday and Hall packaged together really needs more than two years from one player. 

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, oriole said:

I’m okay with trading from the infield prospect depth, but other than that it’s pretty even across the board. There may be some surplus in the OF also, depending on Kjerstad and Stowers. But right now Kjerstad and Stowers don’t have much value and I really don’t want to let go of Cowser. 
 

Anyways, I guess it’s just subjective on whether you value the long term outlook or the short term more highly. I’d like to see the approach of trading the major league pieces that are more expensive and closer to free agency, let the prospects play in Baltimore, and finish it off with some strong free agency signings. Trade Santander this year, maybe Mullins, Urias, and Mountcastle the following year or two. Let Cowser, Henderson, and Mayo take their spots which leaves more room on the payroll for a bit signing when the need arises. 
 

Right now the need is front line pitching. Keep the prospects and just sign one of the many very good options on the market. 

Would you consider Westburg and Mayo "infield depth"? They are ranked ahead of Ortiz and Norby, but the latter could end up just as good. Between Gunnar, Urias/Mateo, Ortiz/Norby, and Holliday we have plenty of options to fill out the infield, short term and long term. If KC would give us Singer for Hall and one of those two I'd be all over it. I'm not sure on Westburg for Merrill Kelly but it would be close (correction to OP, he has a team option in '25, so he would get three years.of control).

[oriole]

6 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

I would add Wells, Voth, and Hall to the bullpen. Bautista (no mirage), Tate (solid and getting better), Baker (getting better), Perez (maybe will decline), Kriebhel (might decline), Akin, Baumann, etc are overall no mirage. If the starting pitching improves then that will lessen the weight on the bullpen. That is not counting any other pickups that Elias makes. The bullpen will be fine. 
I am not saying do dumb stuff but you have to take some calculated chances or you will waste the five-six years we have right now with Adley and Gunnar. 
Also there is nothing that says we can’t trade prospects for an elite pitcher and then lock that elite pitcher into a long term extension. 
 

I don’t believe the bullpen will be an issue. But it is worth noting that most of the players you’ve listed don’t have a track record of success. The chance that the Orioles played over their heads in 2022 is always there and if the window of contention was coming to a close rather than just opening then it would make sense to me to go all in and trade away everyone you’ve got for a chance at a WS. Luckily, the O’s are on the opposite end of that spectrum and have no pressing need to give up competitiveness a few years down the road for a chance next year. 
 

I feel I should reiterate though, I’m not at all against trading prospects right now. But the OP suggestions are too high IMO

[oriole]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would you consider Westburg and Mayo "infield depth"? They are ranked ahead of Ortiz and Norby, but the latter could end up just as good. Between Gunnar, Urias/Mateo, Ortiz/Norby, and Holliday we have plenty of options to fill out the infield, short term and long term. If KC would give us Singer for Hall and one of those two I'd be all over it. I'm not sure on Westburg for Merrill Kelly but it would be close (correction to OP, he has a team option in '25, so he would get three years.of control).

Westburg, Holliday, Norby, Ortiz, Prieto, Hernaiz, even Mayo though I think he’ll end up at 1B…all depth that I think they can comfortably trade from. But when you start packaging these guys with Hall or Cowser for a couple of years of a single player…that’s where I feel like it’s an overpay. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

18 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Also there is nothing that says we can’t trade prospects for an elite pitcher and then lock that elite pitcher into a long term extension. 

That elite pitcher has to be willing to sign an extension though, and guys like Bieber, Burnes, and Woodruff who are only 2 years away from free agency with millions already in the bank from arbitration probably won't have much interest in doing so unless you are willing to pay through the nose, in which case you might be better off just holding onto the high end prospects you'd have to trade for them and signing a top free agent starter instead.

2 minutes ago, oriole said:

Westburg, Holliday, Norby, Ortiz, Prieto, Hernaiz, even Mayo though I think he’ll end up at 1B…all depth that I think they can comfortably trade from.

Come again? 

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, oriole said:

Westburg, Holliday, Norby, Ortiz, Prieto, Hernaiz, even Mayo though I think he’ll end up at 1B…all depth that I think they can comfortably trade from. But when you start packaging these guys with Hall or Cowser for a couple of years of a single player…that’s where I feel like it’s an overpay. 

I'd actually put Holliday on the off-limits side of the line. 

[oriole]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

 

Come again? 

Haha, long term depth. Having someone like Holliday around will probably keep Elias from going after a long contract at SS. 

[Sports Guy]

31 minutes ago, oriole said:

I’d rather the Orioles function more like the Astros than the Padres, but that’s just me I guess. Not that one is inherently better or worse, like I said…it’s all subjective. But right now there is a lot of room in the payroll to add players. What is purpose of trading away future talent for proven talent when you can just buy the proven talent now and keep the future? 

If someone like Bieber cost something like Hall, Rom, and Urias then I feel like it might be worth the future sacrifice of one top prospect plus a redundant major league piece and a lower prospect. But Holliday and Hall packaged together really needs more than two years from one player. 

The Astros have absolutely traded away prospects for short term vet help during their run.  Verlander being a prime example of that.

And it depends on what is out there, what they can spend and what it costs to get players.  Very simply, they may prefer the cheaper younger talent available in trade than spending stupid money for several years for a player that is likely entering their declining years.

And you are talking about deals that the team isn't going to make and quite frankly, no one is really talking about.  The players they would trade would be the depth at MI and perhaps some of the OF depth.  They aren't trading any of their big 4.(including Adley in that group)

I do agree that trading the guys like Santander and Mullins should happen before the youth but I think you trade both to get you what you need.

Either way, trading some prospects isn't throwing in the towel on the long term plans.  Prospects aren't just there for you to bring to the majors.  They are assets that are used in many ways, including trades.

[Camden Yards]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That elite pitcher has to be willing to sign an extension though, and guys like Bieber, Burnes, and Woodruff who are only 2 years away from free agency with millions already in the bank from arbitration probably won't have much interest in doing so unless you are willing to pay through the nose, in which case you might be better off just holding onto the high end prospects you'd have to trade for them and signing a top free agent starter instead.

I agree with this. Will the top free agent starter choose Baltimore? Even if we offer Rodon, Verlander, or DeGrom the most money, do they want to play in Bmore. Lots of factors that come into play. These conversations are a lot better than trying to find the next stud in the Rule V draft! I don’t really care about how we get two good pitchers, I just think we need two good ones to compete at a high level. I am sure Elias is open to all possibilities. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Camden Yards said:

I agree with this. Will the top free agent starter choose Baltimore? Even if we offer Rodon, Verlander, or DeGrom the most money, do they want to play in Bmore. Lots of factors that come into play. These conversations are a lot better than trying to find the next stud in the Rule V draft! I don’t really care about how we get two good pitchers, I just think we need two good ones to compete at a high level. I am sure Elias is open to all possibilities. 

If they offer the most money they got a decent shot.

[Camden Yards]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd actually put Holliday on the off-limits side of the line. 

You seem to like Gallen a lot. Arizona negotiates with you and says Holliday plus one other decent prospect. You say no?

What has Holliday done besides being our #1 draft pick? He is not a sure thing. Many wanted Dru Jones as our pick. 

[Camden Yards]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they offer the most money they got a decent shot.

I hope so…what kinda of contract gets it done with Rodon? Does five years for $130-140 million do it? Maybe you start with three or four years. Does 3 for 90 million do it?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, oriole said:

Haha, long term depth. Having someone like Holliday around will probably keep Elias from going after a long contract at SS. 

I'm just saying, Holliday is the reigning first overall draft pick and a legitimate 5 tool prospect at a premium position. He should be viewed as a core building block until he proves that he isn't.

3 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Will the top free agent starter choose Baltimore? Even if we offer Rodon, Verlander, or DeGrom the most money, do they want to play in Bmore. 

Money talks at the end of the day, so offer a lot of it.

The new LF wall probably doesn't hurt either.

5 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

These conversations are a lot better than trying to find the next stud in the Rule V draft!

No argument here