Elias sounds like he is shooting high

[jamalshw]

24 minutes ago, tabletop said:

The more I look at it the more I am convinced that Rodon's the one to go after in terms of pitching. Fangraphs and MLBTR seem to have him pegged at a contract around 5/140 and while that is pretty expensive they can easily afford it with their low payroll. Since he seems to only be expected to get 5 maybe 6 years he'd fit in perfectly with the current group of prospects who will all start (hopefully) earning serious money at the end of his contract. Having a true #1 starter would take a lot of the pressure off the current group of starters too.

I'm just not convinced that adding one or two of Taillon, Walker, etc. really moves the needle from good team to legitimate World Series contender.

I would love a rotation of Rodon, Rodriguez, Kremer, Bradish and Voth with Wells and Hall in the pen. 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, tabletop said:

The more I look at it the more I am convinced that Rodon's the one to go after in terms of pitching. Fangraphs and MLBTR seem to have him pegged at a contract around 5/140 and while that is pretty expensive they can easily afford it with their low payroll. Since he seems to only be expected to get 5 maybe 6 years he'd fit in perfectly with the current group of prospects who will all start (hopefully) earning serious money at the end of his contract. Having a true #1 starter would take a lot of the pressure off the current group of starters too.

I'm just not convinced that adding one or two of Taillon, Walker, etc. really moves the needle from good team to legitimate World Series contender.

Rodon IP starting the last 5 non COVID seasons:

2017: 69.1

2018: 120.2

2019: 34.2

2021: 132.2

2022:  178

535.1 IP over 5 years.

Can he give you even 600 IP the next 5 years?  

Can’t see committing that amount of money to someone that oft injured.

It’s nice that he did it this year but that’s not enough of a sample size to assume he can stay healthy well into his 30s.  It certainly could happen but I can’t see betting on that.

He has shoulder surgery and TJ surgery.  Last year he missed time because “something didn’t feel right” in his shoulder.

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Yardball85]

2 hours ago, dabirds said:

From Jim Bowden in the Athletic.  Encouraging.

 

They should be trying to sign someone from the deep end (Verlander/Rodon) and someone from the middle of the pool (Walker/Taillon).  I wouldn't count on Voth as a starter entering the season.  Let's wait and see. 

[RZNJ]

Rodon mIssed time?  He started 31 games.   Sure, if his shoulder didn’t feel right it’s a concern.  I just checked his game logs for 2022.  The most days between any 2 starts was 7 days so he certainly didn’t go on the IL and at worst he had some starts pushed back a day or two.  He was actually most effective on 4 days rest with a 1.45 ERA in 12 such starts.

Edited November 16, 2022 by RZNJ

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Rodon mIssed time?  He started 31 games.   Sure, if his shoulder didn’t feel right it’s a concern.  I just checked his game logs for 2022.  The most days between any 2 starts was 7 days so he certainly didn’t go on the IL and at worst he had some starts pushed back a day or two.  He was actually most effective on 4 days rest with a 1.45 ERA in 12 such starts.

Last year was 2021. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Last year was 2021. 

Ok. So I guess whatever didn’t feel right in 2021, felt pretty good in 2022.  He’s a risk. No doubt.  He’s also one of just a few true #1 pitchers that we have a chance of getting.

[Aristotelian]

Rodon has a lot of Robbie Ray risk. Of course I would be happy to land him but in this market I think it will take an overpay to come to Baltimore. What are the chances we are the highest bidder and what would it take? 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Rodon has a lot of Robbie Ray risk. Of course I would be happy to land him but in this market I think it will take an overpay to come to Baltimore. What are the chances we are the highest bidder and what would it take? 

Different type of risk.  Ray pitched over his head in 2021. 
 

Rodon is a legit really good pitcher but the health is a huge problem.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Rodon has a lot of Robbie Ray risk. Of course I would be happy to land him but in this market I think it will take an overpay to come to Baltimore. What are the chances we are the highest bidder and what would it take? 

5/150 or 6/180.   

[Sports Guy]

The only way I would give him a 5 year deal is you pay him a large portion of the contract for the first 3 years And then give him an opt out after that, which would almost insure an opt out because you have the salary at like 10M or something.  

Edited November 16, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

I think any pitcher we are likely to get also will come with a degree of risk.  We got burned on both Ubaldo and Cobb, so a lot of us (me included) are feeling a bit gun-shy, but there really isn’t a low risk, high reward arm out there.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think any pitcher we are likely to get also will come with a degree of risk.  We got burned on both Ubaldo and Cobb, so a lot of us (me included) are feeling a bit gun-shy, but there really isn’t a low risk, high reward arm out there.

Not in free agency there isn’t.

The trade  market likely has better options.  Of course, that means you we giving up your talent to get it and that comes with its own risks.

[Bemorewins]

Any from Rodon, Verlander, deGrom sign me up. Plus adding another pitcher to slide in after them as a #2 or #3 after Grayson would be amazing! If we were able to add a hitter in addition to this, I would be over the moon and ready to invest in season tix!

To me it's put up or shut up time for the O's after punting the last 4 years. I'm not interested in hearing about strategies to save money, go cheap, budget, etc. They have done that for almost have of a decade. They are a billion dollar plus+ business who has still charged major league prices while mostly sending out below average major league players. How long should fans be expected to support this?

I know that this might be an opinion that is different than the "How much does it cost? We have to bargain basement everything approach." But we have sat out Free Agency or really any spending for 4 years! The money should be there and then some! At this point (given how low our payroll is) the approach I want to see the club take is "It cost what is cost. Will this player push us into the conversation of serious contention?" 

Maybe we won't get 5 great years from Rodon or whatever pitcher we sign for the length of their contract. I really don't care. What I want is World Series games at Camden Yards being hosted in the city I love. It's about time to get it done! I don't want to be the Rays or A's who have no rings and no fans. I want to be the Astros or Braves who got the parade! 

[Aristotelian]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The only way I would give him a 5 year deal is you pay him a large portion of the contract for the first 3 years And then give him an opt out after that, which would almost insure an opt out because you have the salary at like 10M or something.  

So in effect something like 3/$120? That seems like way too much. I also don't know what we get out of backloading given the overall spend would be the same. 

I am more inclined to go the trade route as you have also been suggesting. Of course, that also requires a willing partner and possibly an overpay to get what we want. If we have a comparative advantage in the market, it appears to be our developmental system and trade assets more so than the ability to outbid other teams. I wonder what the Brewers' price is for Woodruff. Would Cowser-plus get it done? 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So in effect something like 3/$120? That seems like way too much. I also don't know what we get out of backloading given the overall spend would be the same. 

I am more inclined to go the trade route as you have also been suggesting. Of course, that also requires a willing partner and possibly an overpay to get what we want. If we have a comparative advantage in the market, it appears to be our developmental system and trade assets more so than the ability to outbid other teams. I wonder what the Brewers' price is for Woodruff. Would Cowser-plus get it done? 

What we get out of it is that we likely only have him for 3 years Vs 5, lessening the chances we deal with injuries.

I wouldn’t sign him but a deal like this is the only one I can sort of be ok with.

FG has him getting 24M a year. That seems low to me but if he is getting less than 25M and gets less than 5 years, I would consider him but I don’t think either of things will occur.