Would you sign Trea Turner…for CF?

[LookinUp]

As an aside, I didn't realize until now that Nimmo is an OBP machine. Can we sign him for LF please? Trade Hays in a big package for pitching! Leave Trea Turner for the Dodgers.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Because you'd rather not spend on riskier player injury profiles. 

It's believable to me that the O's would trade 10 prospects for two starting pitchers before they pay top of the market rates for a free agent starting pitcher. I'm not predicting that, but I think if they go after a true TOR pitcher, it'll be through trade.

I've given a fair amount of thought to the Mullins situation and I still think you're wrong about him. I think sometimes you just pay a guy for what you'll get. You don't worry about trading him. You don't worry about trying to find a good replacement. You don't worry about signing him to FA afterwards.

I get that there's always a churn scenario (e.g., trade Mullins + prospects for pitching, sign Nimmo) that could make sense. I just don't think it's something that SHOULD happen as much as something that could happen and make sense is some limited scenario.

I think that’s fair to say.  I mean, I didn’t buy into him being what he was in 2021 in 2022 but I said I thought he would be a 3-4 WAR guy and that’s what he was.

I could see him being similar in 2023.  Obviously that’s a good player.  But I subscribe to the Schuerholz theory of trading a guy a year too early as opposed to a year too late.

And I get it, you need to keep guys  to win. I’m not really interested in dealing him for prospects though.  I want ML ready pitching.  I want to use him to improve areas of the team that need improving and then look to replace, at a minimum, his speed and defense.  
 

I think all of that can be done and I think we are better for it in the long run.

But I also acknowledge that we can keep him and build a very good team And revisit this again next year.

The only thing I would be vehemently against is extending him.

[Bemorewins]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can’t agree more with a lot of this.  They absolutely have to get better. Some of that will come from Henderson and Adley playing (knock on wood) full seasons.  Part of it will be elevating the young players in the minors up to the majors but then you also have the idea of needing to add real outside talent to this team.

Im personally all for Jose Abreu because I think he’s the type of hitter this team needs.  Yoshida is another bat that sounds good but he also sounds more like a DH, so you can’t go him and Abreu unless you are dealing Mountcastle.

Another bat, likely in the OF, is needed imo.  Elias said he believes they need to add 2 bats.  I think he’s right.  

I think Abreu is a better quality professional hitter than Mountcastle. Though he is 35, so the question becomes how long can that continue. But I would agree he is the type of hitter that the O's should be looking to add in that he has good OBP and excellent bat to ball skills.

I'm all for upgrading over Hays and/or potentially pushing Santander to DH more.

Are you at all concerned with the jump in competition for Yoshida? I remember Kim and how difficult that transition was.. Not that Yoshida is anything like Kim. But he will be jumping a serious level in competition when he gets to the Bigs.

As far as pitching goes, you mentioned trading Mullins to add pitching. Are you not interested in any of the FA pitchers available?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

I'm trying to figure out what the O's have in Mullins... the 2021 version or 2022 version? Or somewhere in between? 

Probably closer to the 2022 version, but nothing wrong with a 3.8 rWAR, 3.4 fWAR CF who plays plus defense and is paid lower than FA prices.   There’s a lot of surplus value there.  It’s okay with me if we shop him, but we’d have to get a lot back for any trade to be worthwhile.   

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I think Abreu is a better quality professional hitter than Mountcastle. Though he is 35, so the question becomes how long can that continue. But I would agree he is the type of hitter that the O's should be looking to add in that he has good OBP and excellent bat to ball skills.

I'm all for upgrading over Hays and/or potentially pushing Santander to DH more.

Are you at all concerned with the jump in competition for Yoshida? I remember Kim and how difficult that transition was.. Not that Yoshida is anything like Kim. But he will be jumping a serious level in competition when he gets to the Bigs.

As far as pitching goes, you mentioned trading Mullins to add pitching. Are you not interested in any of the FA pitchers available?

I think that’s always a concern but I like the profile as one who can still be good. Probably less power though.

As for pitching, I would be interested in DeGrom for 3 years but the Os won’t pay the number.

There are probably some starters that I would be interested in on varying degrees but for the most part, I don’t think the FA starting pitching is that appealing.  I think the better arms are available in trade and I think you can get more cost controlled guys as well. 
 

To me, the whole point of this offseason is to improve the top tier of your team.

The Os don’t need and shouldn’t be paying for the bottom 1/2-2/3 of the roster.  We have that group on lockdown imo.  
 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

I understood the argument to take advantage of his 30/30 season and try to find someone willing to overpay. I don't see the urgency for the trade case coming off a more typical year. The main reason to trade him is if you think he is in for imminent decline, but I just don't see it at age 28. Makes much more sense to trade from the infield where we have way more depth and obvious replacements. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I understood the argument to take advantage of his 30/30 season and try to find someone willing to overpay. I don't see the urgency for the trade case coming off a more typical year. The main reason to trade him is if you think he is in for imminent decline, but I just don't see it at age 28. Makes much more sense to trade from the infield where we have way more depth and obvious replacements. 

But for the IF, you have to package more assets because they don’t have the same track record.  
 

It makes it tricky.  
 

Look, no matter what they do, it can blow up in their faces. It could be the best or dumbest move and it could or couldn’t work out.  Stuff happens out of the control of the team.

But it’s about the odds.  A player whose game is largely dependent on speed is likely to see a drop off into their late 20s because speed and athleticism will be on the decline by then, generally speaking. 
 

Its kind of like Santander. Good player.  He can help us or anyone win and can be a starter on a playoff contender.

But can he stay healthy? Can he keep his OBP over 320?  Trading him allows you to max out value while also not taking the risk of his health fading again.

[BRobinsonfan]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If the Os could trade Mullins for pitching, would you sign Turner for CF?

For me, I’m vehemently against signing any non first base IFer.  

Turner gives you the flexibility for CF. 

The problem  is, you are likely playing high end SS money to get him even he plays CF for you.
 

I would probably rather sign Nimmo for half (or less) the cost.

 

No.  While I like his bat and his speed in our line up,  he hasn't played in the outfield since 2016, and then for only 45 games... I'm assuming there's a reason for that.   

[Bemorewins]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think that’s always a concern but I like the profile as one who can still be good. Probably less power though.

As for pitching, I would be interested in DeGrom for 3 years but the Os won’t pay the number.

There are probably some starters that I would be interested in on varying degrees but for the most part, I don’t think the FA starting pitching is that appealing.  I think the better arms are available in trade and I think you can get more cost controlled guys as well. 
 

To me, the whole point of this offseason is to improve the top tier of your team.

The Os don’t need and shouldn’t be paying for the bottom 1/2-2/3 of the roster.  We have that group on lockdown imo.  
 

I agree on DeGrom being someone the O's should be interested in. What do you think about Verlander? Bassitt? Rodon?

I ABSOLUTELY %100 AGREE that the approach to the offseason should be toward building the front end/top of the roster. HAving said that if we were to trade Mullins and Santander as you seem to be flirting with, who replaces them?

Why not just get rid of Hays and add to our outfield that way?

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But for the IF, you have to package more assets because they don’t have the same track record.  
 

It makes it tricky.  
 

Look, no matter what they do, it can blow up in their faces. It could be the best or dumbest move and it could or couldn’t work out.  Stuff happens out of the control of the team.

But it’s about the odds.  A player whose game is largely dependent on speed is likely to see a drop off into their late 20s because speed and athleticism will be on the decline by then, generally speaking. 
 

Its kind of like Santander. Good player.  He can help us or anyone win and can be a starter on a playoff contender.

But can he stay healthy? Can he keep his OBP over 320?  Trading him allows you to max out value while also not taking the risk of his health fading again.

You seem to assume the market undervalues the infielders and overvalues Santander/Mullins. I'm not convinced of either. I would operate on the assumption the market fairly values the players and look for opportunities where the market has needs and we have assets, and vice versa. 

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Ummm, that’s the point and it’s what I said.  You would have to pay him SS level money to get him here.

I have just seen a lot of people, both here and moreso on Twitter land saying they want Turner.  
 

Just posing the question.  I think he’s a terrible sign myself.

If you agree that there's no way he would sign here to play CF AND that it's a bad sign even if he plays SS, why make the thread? You're just wasting everyone's time. You made a thread simply to disagree with anyone who thinks it's a good idea. That's not a "discussion", it's a trap. To pass it off as something genuine is par for the course with your daily charade on this website. 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

If you agree that there's no way he would sign here to play CF AND that it's a bad sign even if he plays SS, why make the thread? You're just wasting everyone's time. You made a thread simply to disagree with anyone who thinks it's a good idea. That's not a "discussion", it's a trap. To pass it off as something genuine is par for the course with your daily charade on this website. 

Not going to have this. Keep to the subject at hand or avoid his posts. Place him on ignore if his posts bother you so much but your thoughts on him or anyone as a poster is not relevant to baseball discussion.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

thoughts on him or anyone as a poster is not relevant to baseball discussion.

Fair enough but I will be using this any time I see him comment about another poster in a non-baseball context, which is frequently. 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree on DeGrom being someone the O's should be interested in. What do you think about Verlander? Bassitt? Rodon?

I ABSOLUTELY %100 AGREE that the approach to the offseason should be toward building the front end/top of the roster. HAving said that if we were to trade Mullins and Santander as you seem to be flirting with, who replaces them?

Why not just get rid of Hays and add to our outfield that way?

First off, let me say that I think the beauty of this offseason is that the team can go in many directions and I don’t think there are many “wrong” paths, as long as they greatly improve the talent on the team.

As for replacements…Abreu would kind of be the Santander replacement, as I don’t see him playing in the OF a ton moving forward.  Yoshida could also fill that role.  There are also likely names we don’t know about yet that will become available.

Despite the injury history, I also like Michael Brantley.

As for CF, again assuming other guys don’t become available that are unknowns right now, I don’t mind the approach of “Mateo’ing” CF.  In other words, defense and speed combo guys that may not hit a ton but the overall value is good.  Think of a platoon with McKenna and Brett Philips (both high OAA guys last year). Or bring Keirmeier here.  Something like that.  If you feel Cowser can handle CF, that’s fine too.

I would definitely move Hays to a 4th OFer role. I don’t trust him to stay healthy and don’t want to go into next year relying on him to be a 500+ at bat guy.  Plus he doesn’t do great vs righties.

As for the pitchers you mentioned…I’m out on Rodon unless he gets fewer years than I think.  I think he’s an excellent pitcher but the health is a problem and I wouldn’t pay a 5/125-150 deal for a pitcher with his health history.(I don’t know that I would pay it for any pitcher but that certainly takes him out for me)

Verlander I would be intrigued by on a 2 year deal.  Prefer 1 with an option but I don’t think I would outbid other teams for him, at least if he gets what I think he will.

Bassitt is a tough one for me.  I sort of buy into him but I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t pay what it would take to get him. 
 

I really  don’t like free agency.  Never really have.  I wouldn’t ignore it and I certainly would sign some guys but I think the value is in the trade market and I value that value.

 

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

No.  While I like his bat and his speed in our line up,  he hasn't played in the outfield since 2016, and then for only 45 games... I'm assuming there's a reason for that.   

The reason is, he's a pretty good SS so there is more value to having him play that position.   He was perfectly solid as a CF for the Nats.   Looking at this a different way, suppose Turner was playing SS for the O's and Mullins went down with a season-ending injury.   Would I consider moving Turner to CF and putting Henderson or Ortiz at SS, instead of putting someone like McKenna or Cowser into CF full time?   I'd absolutely consider that.