Trevor Rogers as a trade target

[casadeozo]

I know there has been a lot of discussion of some of the Marlins starting pitching depth and being a good match as a trade partner. Rogers would be an interesting second arm to acquire as a buy low candidate. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/marlins-trade-rumors-trevor-rogers-pablo-lopez.html

[Brion McClanahan]

If, like Voth, he has a secret wipe out pitch that just needs some assistance from the Orioles staff, ok, but there are better options on the FA market, and I am not sure he is much of an upgrade over what they have in the current rotation mix.

[btdart20]

I was looking at him a few days ago.  I would definitely knock on that door.  But the velo and 'stuff' is still there.  He had a late season Lat strain and battled some back issues for part of the season.  I wouldn't expect his 2.64 ERA from 2021, but it should be lower than his 4.11 xFIP from 2022 as well.  That should provide bookends for ERA.

His 4-seam doesn't have the rise profile, but averages in the 94-95 range.  That's clearly the pitch that got knocked around (run value -16 and HH% of 40.2% in 2021 to a +11 and 49.1% in 2022).  It's not a normal 4-seam (more horizontal movement, less vertical 'rise').  2021 HR/FB% was 6.7% vs 20.8% in 2022.  Plus CH.  Show-me SL.  Hitters likely sat dead-red FB when they were ahead in the count (34.6% thrown when behind).  Maybe Holt can look at how he throws his SL as well.

Babip and HR/FB weren't friendly to him in 2022.  I think our D would help with the Babip some.  And the Camden Canyon will help with the HR/FB, especially for him as a LHP with a solid 41-43% GB% over the last 2 years.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

Lots to like about Rogers.  Lots to also not like.

Article mentions how it’s likely they trade for a CFer. 
 

Rogers and Cabrera for Mullins and Mateo?

May not need to include Mateo or if we do, they include another prospect?

Edited November 19, 2022 by Sports Guy

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots to like about Rogers.  Lots to also not like.

Article mentions how it’s likely they trade for a CFer. 
 

Rogers and Cabrera for Mullins and Mateo?

May not need to include Mateo or if we do, they include another prospect?

But then who would play CF for the O’s? Certainly no one better than Mullins. Maybe Miami could be convinced that Hays is a CF? Certainly not for Cabrera though 

 

Rogers would be fine as long as a supplemental target but someone with more consistency and upside really needs to be traded for or signed. 

[SpOkane]

The Fish have a need at 3B as well. Maybe Urias+ for Rogers+?

[interloper]

I'd be on board with this. Only 25, get him in the lab with Holt. I like the Urias idea.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, oriole said:

But then who would play CF for the O’s? Certainly no one better than Mullins. Maybe Miami could be convinced that Hays is a CF? Certainly not for Cabrera though 

 

Rogers would be fine as long as a supplemental target but someone with more consistency and upside really needs to be traded for or signed. 

Lots of other ways to go for CF.

They aren’t going to be convinced that Hays can play CF.  He has become an average at best COer.

[oriole]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of other ways to go for CF.

They aren’t going to be convinced that Hays can play CF.  He has become an average at best COer.

Yea. I agree. Not to mention they’ve got a lot of right handed hitters already. 
 

Not sure it’s worth trading away a GG lead off hitter for something that could be signed or traded for otherwise. Because then they’d need to trade for or sign a CF. Maybe once we see Cowser vs major league pitching then he could take Mullins’ place but that time hasn’t come yet 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, oriole said:

Yea. I agree. Not to mention they’ve got a lot of right handed hitters already. 
 

Not sure it’s worth trading away a GG lead off hitter for something that could be signed or traded for otherwise. Because then they’d need to trade for or sign a CF. Maybe once we see Cowser vs major league pitching then he could take Mullins’ place but that time hasn’t come yet 

The defense and speed can be replaced pretty easily.  The offense is the issue. 

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The defense and speed can be replaced pretty easily.  The offense is the issue. 

I don't suppose anyone wants to take a leap of faith and hand the job to Daz Cameron!   lol

[oriole]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The defense and speed can be replaced pretty easily.  The offense is the issue. 

Exactly why I’d be very hesitant to move Mullins for anything that could be attained elsewhere. He may not be the 30/30 guy of 2021 but he is still an extremely well rounded player to have on board. Except maybe his hitting vs lefties

 

[Just Regular]

They are both a lot more valuable, but Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez have some of that Years of Control - Established Level sliding scale like Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo.

The BTV folks have Rogers and Lopez basically the same in median surplus value near +40 in the Player's forecast field value for remaining years of Club control, so for Elias there's a this one or that one aspect to who he bids for.