Feinsand : Orioles best fit for Nathan Eovaldi

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, emmett16 said:

That control is the only major difference.  Eovaldi gives up 1.6 less walks per 9.  That’s pretty significant.    

It’s huge.  

[Frobby]

Fangraphs published the ZiPS projections for the 2023 Red Sox today, which includes players who were on the Red Sox last year but are now free agents.  

Interestingly, this year Fangraphs is publishing not only the player’s median projection, but also their 80% and 20% projections.  

For Nathan Eovaldi, his median projection shows him throwing 123.2 innings at 3.86 ERA (117 ERA+), worth 2.1 zWAR.   His 80th percentile is 3.30 ERA, 2.8 WAR; 20th percentile is 4.45 ERA, 1.3 WAR.  I’m not sure, but I think the 80/20 scenarios also are based on 123.2 innings.   

The other big Red Sox free agent who’s gotten some discussion here is JD Martinez.  His median projection is .810 OPS, 116 OPS+, 1.6 zWAR.  80% is .890 OPS, 135 OPS+, 2.8 WAR; 20% is .732 OPS, 96 OPS+, 0.3 WAR.

As you can see, these projections can vary very widely between an optimistic and pessimistic scenario.   

 

[Frobby]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/nathan-eovaldi-matt-strahm-drawing-strong-interest.html

“he’s not coming off the ideal platform year, as back and shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings in 2022. He kept his ERA down to 3.87 but his velocity was down in the second half and his strikeout rate dropped to 22.4%. This isn’t the first time injuries have been a concern, as he’s twice had Tommy John surgery and also had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in 2019. He’s also turning 33 in February and has been tagged with a qualifying offer, tying him to draft pick compensation. Those factors will put a damper on his market, with MLBTR predicting a two-year, $34MM contract.”

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/nathan-eovaldi-matt-strahm-drawing-strong-interest.html

“he’s not coming off the ideal platform year, as back and shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings in 2022. He kept his ERA down to 3.87 but his velocity was down in the second half and his strikeout rate dropped to 22.4%. This isn’t the first time injuries have been a concern, as he’s twice had Tommy John surgery and also had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in 2019. He’s also turning 33 in February and has been tagged with a qualifying offer, tying him to draft pick compensation. Those factors will put a damper on his market, with MLBTR predicting a two-year, $34MM contract.”

In a less active free agent off-season I could see him not getting a deal until Spring Training.

If he signs early it bodes well for players.