Elias targeting LH starters?

[now]

58 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We are past the point where we need mediocre placeholders like Lyles and Gibson. 

I disagree, because they bring durability and predictability. Sure you can shoot higher for a superstar who misses half his starts, then you have to plug in a Watkins or whoever. That brings the avg. value for the rotation spot lower. So think of Gibson as necessary but not sufficient. Have to add better pieces as well, to raise the rotation ceiling. A Lyles or Gibson holds up the floor. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

55 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Presumably if a player is "brought in during the lows of the rebuild" he is automatically categorized as incapable of contributing beyond a certain arbitrary point known as "competitive phase" which several of these unworthy players brought the team to in the first place.  It may be that Mateo, Urias and Santander won't be around in 2025 - or maybe they will be - but right now they deserve a bit more credit than you're giving them.

I don't really know what you're even getting at here, I never said anything about dumping any of those guys just because the rebuild is over. We almost made the playoffs last year and a lot of that was due to guys we uncovered while rebuilding. It is simply time to augment them and take the next step forward, not putz around for a few more years tinkering with more leftovers and castoffs from other teams in important roles. We already did that and it worked. 

In all likelihood, Adley will be a Dodger or a Yankee or a Cub in 5 years, and Gunnar and Grayson in 6, so there is absolutely no reason in the world that we should be punting on any of those years, and handing Gibson and Manaea a pair of rotation spots for next year would be punting 2023.

55 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Lyles is gone, so I don't know why you're still mentioning him

Because we filled the spot that he held with an almost identically below average pitcher instead of someone better. It's downright uncanny how similar Gibson's career numbers are to Lyles' 2022 numbers. 

49 minutes ago, now said:

I disagree, because they bring durability and predictability. Sure you can shoot higher for a superstar who misses half his starts, then you have to plug in a Watkins or whoever. That brings the avg. value for the rotation spot lower. So think of Gibson as necessary but not sufficient. Have to add better pieces as well, to raise the rotation ceiling. A Lyles or Gibson holds up the floor. 

The rotation could have been improved meaningfully without superstar level players. Signing Verlander and Rodon was never realistic, and neither was trading for Burnes or Woodruff, but signing Chris Bassitt or Taijuan Walker or Nathan Eovaldi and then trading for Chris Flexen or Pablo Lopez certainly was. 

And you can say that a Lyles or Gibson holds up the floor, and that is probably true, but they also hold down the ceiling, which is what should actually matter now.

The same goes for Manaea, he shouldn't even be a consideration for us. His Statcast numbers suggest that last year was not a fluke or just a run of bad luck.

 

[SilverRocket]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

And you can say that a Lyles or Gibson holds up the floor, and that is probably true, but they also hold down the ceiling, which is what should actually matter now.

Floor and ceiling both matter. The ceiling is more important when everyone's healthy, but pitchers get injured. Gibson helps minimize having to go to AAA for spot start guys.

If we signed a second Gibson-type then I'd start to worry a bit, but he was on a World Series team last year. Lots of successful teams have someone like that to provide some insurance.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, 24fps said:

Still love Miami as a trade partner.  Luzardo should be available in addition to Rogers if LHP is the filter.  Personally I still like Lopez the best out of Miami's presumptive available starting pitchers even though he's right handed.  I hope ME is working that angle as hard as he can.

There's no rule that says Elias can't add three SP and that's what I'm hoping happens, but Heaney is too much of an injury risk for my taste and for that reason I'm glad the Rodon is probably off the table too.

How bout a block buster where we get 2 and send 1 off our back with prospects. I’m sure @Sports Guy can come up with a Whopper.

 

[btdart20]

Does this mean we’re out in Bassitt?

I think (hope, expect) the next SP signing to have a higher risk/reward profile.  A guy like Rodon or Heaney.  Trevor Rogers   and Luzardo fit that profile as well.

4 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

And you can say that a Lyles or Gibson holds up the floor, and that is probably true, but they also hold down the ceiling, which is what should actually matter now.

The same goes for Manaea, he shouldn't even be a consideration for us. His Statcast numbers suggest that last year was not a fluke or just a run of bad luck.

Agree re: Manaea.  He doesn’t check the high reward now for me either.

For the record, I completely get where you’re coming from.  I also see the value in maintaining the floor (I.e. signing Gibson) because it’s probably a good path to the playoffs.  It allows our BP to play up in key spots.

But the high ceiling will be needed for any type of playoff run though.  To some extent, we need to throw caution to the wind and target a high reward guy next. 

[Sports Guy]

Heaney reportedly has 3 year offers but he is holding out for 4 years.  I’m out on either even if the peripherals are good.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

10 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The rotation could have been improved meaningfully without superstar level players. Signing Verlander and Rodon was never realistic, and neither was trading for Burnes or Woodruff, but signing Chris Bassitt or Taijuan Walker or Nathan Eovaldi and then trading for Chris Flexen or Pablo Lopez certainly was. 

 

 

Just because Bassit/Walker/Eovaldi are "realistic" doesn't mean we should expect them or want them at any price. We still have to outbid (overpay) the competition. Seeing the numbers and years these guys are going for, I'm not sure any of the Bassit/Walker/Eovaldi group are worth it. I'd say there is as much risk of any of those three underperforming Gibson as there is of Gibson underperforming Lyles. In terms of likely range of outcomes I see something like this:

Lyles/Bundy/Archer -1 to 1 WAR (mean 0)

Gibson/Syndergaard/Taillon/Wacha 0 to 2 WAR (mean 1)

Bassit/Walker/Eovaldi 1 to 3 WAR (mean 2)

Rodon 2 to 4 WAR (mean 3)

Degrom/Verlander 2 to 5 WAR (mean 3.5)

Now, it's not a foregone conclusion that we pass on Bassit/Walker/Eovaldi but at the prices they are going I can see why we might target a Gibson for at least one spot and grab him before he gets away. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Just because Bassit/Walker/Eovaldi are "realistic" doesn't mean we should expect them or want them at any price. We still have to outbid (overpay) the competition. Seeing the numbers and years these guys are going for, I'm not sure any of the Bassit/Walker/Eovaldi group are worth it. I'd say there is as much risk of any of those three underperforming Gibson as there is of Gibson underperforming Lyles. In terms of likely range of outcomes I see something like this:

Lyles/Bundy/Archer -1 to 1 WAR (mean 0)

Gibson/Syndergaard/Taillon/Wacha 0 to 2 WAR (mean 1)

Bassit/Walker/Eovaldi 1 to 3 WAR (mean 2)

Rodon 2 to 4 WAR (mean 3)

Degrom/Verlander 2 to 5 WAR (mean 3.5)

Now, it's not a foregone conclusion that we pass on Bassit/Walker/Eovaldi but at the prices they are going I can see why we might target a Gibson for at least one spot and grab him before he gets away. 

Oh no, we might have missed out on a below average 35 year old starter. Better sign Manaea just to be safe in case Gibson gets injured, we'll never be able to compete without a 4.50-5.00 ERA starter anchoring the rotation. 

Do I want to "overpay" for pitchers who are actually good? No, of course not, but every single other team probably feel the same way, and yet plenty of them still do it because that is what the market demands if you want to get better from one year to the next in the simplest and most straightforward way. Our payroll is non-existent and our rebuild is over, there is no good excuse to rush out and target mediocre placeholders instead of actually good players at this point. 

"Ownership refuses to increase payroll in any meaningful way because they want higher profits" is an excuse, and the most likely one even if they won't come right out and say it, but it's certainly not a good one.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Oh no, we might have missed out on a below average 35 year old starter. Better sign Manaea just to be safe in case Gibson gets injured, we'll never be able to compete without a 4.50-5.00 ERA starter anchoring the rotation. 

Do I want to "overpay" for pitchers who are actually good? No, of course not, but every single other team probably feel the same way, and yet plenty of them still do it because that is what the market demands if you want to get better from one year to the next in the simplest and most straightforward way. Our payroll is non-existent and our rebuild is over, there is no good excuse to rush out and target mediocre placeholders instead of actually good players at this point. 

"Ownership refuses to increase payroll in any meaningful way because they want higher profits" is an excuse, and the most likely one even if they won't come right out and say it, but it's certainly not a good one.

I don't see why you are so unhinged over the difference between the Bassit level guys and the Gibson level guys for one of our rotation spots. Admittedly I am not super excited about Gibson but I'd be only mildly more excited about Bassit for the likely contract we would have to beat. And we still may get one of those guys. 

[eddie83]

 

[jamalshw]

This is what makes the Gibson move such a headscratcher for me. I'm not opposed to Gibson as one of two starters we add, but the left-handers available are all more of a second SP add rather than the headliner. Gibson is a bit of an upgrade over Lyles (though Lyles had a better season last year, but with our defense and analytics and given his superior track record one would assume a bit better production from Gibson in 2023 compared to Lyles in 2023). That said, if we want a LHP given our park, Lyles would make more sense than Gibson or at least as much and someone like Quintana would make even more sense. 

So, if we are going after a LHP instead of someone like Bassitt, Rodon would be amazing (although surely overpriced), but like most or us am extremely skeptical it's realistic. Though it's really the only one I would be happy about. That leaves Sean Manaea in Free Agency or Trevor Rogers in a trade as likely options. Honestly, both feel like Elias type targets as guys that are undervalued coming off poor seasons who he, Sig and Holt think they can fix. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

43 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

unhinged 

Oh, so we're using pejoratives now? Okay then...

You're a stinky, smelly buttface for being so accepting of ownership's commitment to profits over product.

Beat THAT  

[Aristotelian]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Oh, so we're using pejoratives now? Okay then...

You're a stinky, smelly buttface for being so accepting of ownership's commitment to profits over product.

Beat THAT  

Lol, I will just let you prove my point. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Lol, I will just let you prove my point. 

If you took that intentionally silly and childish post seriously, you might be the unhinged one here. I was just trying to lighten the mood since you are clearly getting pretty wound up.

[Yardball85]

I'll just leave this here.