Connolly: Don’t see the Os going beyond 2-3 years

[orioles119]

6 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Elias has done great job so far! I believe the comments he made about expanding payroll etc he believed to be true and that’s what he would like to do. He knows with the way this roster is currently constructed with young talent that we’re only couple of pieces away from WS contenders. It’s clear to me he is being handcuffed by ownership who have plans to sell the team and do not want to add any major liabilities. Therefore we are stuck to short term contracts shopping in the bargain basement until Peter dies and the brothers sell the team. 

Oh look, a dead horse!

[orioles119]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The bolded statement I couldn't agree with more. My fear is that there are going to be a lot of fans who feel similarly.

The problem with treating fans like they are dumb in the modern age is that we have something called the internet where we can obtain information to find out things like the Orioles pocketing over 200 million in this one season alone.

I went to several games myself last year and enjoyed like you. But it is impossible with this type of spitting in the face action from ownership/management for me to support spending ANY money next year on this (and really in the foreseeable future). 

More dead horses!

[Sports Guy]

7 hours ago, geschinger said:

I disagree.  Assuming there isn't some major increase in revenues (which seems unlikely with the slow demise of RSNs) having ~20-25% of payroll lost to a bad contract is not something the Orioles or anyone else can easily contend with. 

In 5 or 6 years, the Os payroll will be much higher and a contract like this won’t be quite that much of the payroll.

But correa is an extreme example. You are taking a bit too far when you say they can’t do this for payroll flexibility long term. They absolutely can. 

I mean, 5 years from now, 30M May be what 20M is now. 

[Bemorewins]

7 hours ago, geschinger said:

All for that if that is possible - i.e. it not taking contracts into 2026 and beyond to sign them as bad contracts absolutely hurt the long term plan.  

I know that you have this 3 years in the future philosophy that you seem married to. But I have a question for you: Who wins besides the Angelos' family under this philosophy? Do the players like Adley and Gunnar who won't be able to have as many good players as possible to play with because heaven forbid they might ask for more than a 3 year deal? Do we as fans win as we watch the Orioles charge the same prices for tix and merch while they pocket all of the profits and don't improve the product/team significantly?

Do you really believe that it is the right thing to do for the organization to receive 300 million in revenue and refuse to spend 60-80 because they shouldn't risk a bad deal in 3 years? You do know they will have more than enough money to cover 5 bad deals at that time? How do you personally benefit if the Orioles do not spending money? 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, orioles119 said:

More dead horses!

I don't want to make an assumption about what that means. Would you be willing to elaborate?

[Aristotelian]

46 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

LOL … #8 guy based on what? Gibson who career is worth 14.1 WAR. This past season per baseball reference he was worth .7 WAR. He should be down in the Dillon Bundy range. Where are these numbers coming from??? Lyles was worth 1WAR and is -1.2 for his career. Gibson is a Dumpster signing and is only available on a 1 year deal $10 million because he’s not good. 
 

You guys crack me up! This was another penny pinching move to say they tried. Casting a wide net and talking to everybody, what a joke. I’d imagine I can take off today and visit a Lexus, Mercedes, Land Rover, Porsche, Lambro, Ferrari, Audi dealer etc….look at sports cars that are $80,000 or more that I have no intention to buy. It will waste a lot of peoples time including mine. Then stop by the local Kia and dealer and buy a cheap $25,000 car that I really don’t want but the assigned budget fits (BTW, I don’t like KIA).

Saddled by bad contracts stink ….but the available revenue moving forward is in the $250 plus range annually. We can certainly afford to have a contract or two on the books.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gibsoky01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lylesjo01.shtml

The numbers are fWAR. The list is from MLB.com. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2022-23-free-agents-by-position

[geschinger]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In 5 or 6 years, the Os payroll will be much higher and a contract like this won’t be quite that much of the payroll.

But correa is an extreme example. You are taking a bit too far when you say they can’t do this for payroll flexibility long term. They absolutely can. 

I mean, 5 years from now, 30M May be what 20M is now. 

I doubt it it will be significantly higher.  If it has a massive increase in revenue like the NFL is getting with it's TV/streaming deals I could something like 30 being what 20 is now.  But doubt it's the case as I'm not sure where that additional revenue is going to come for that signficant of a jump.  Unlike with the NFL, some MLB media contracts like ESPN are actually decreasing - the rights fees for 2022-2028 are for 20% less revenue than they've been getting and RSNs are hemorrhaging subscribers as more people cut cable.

If you were tasked with optimizing contention for the long term (i.e. not a build up for a 2-3 window and then tear it down and rebuild which would change the calculus) what percentage of overall payroll do you think you comfortably write off to bad contracts and be successful? 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

I doubt it it will be significantly higher.  If it has a massive increase in revenue like the NFL is getting with it's TV/streaming deals I could something like 30 being what 20 is now.  But doubt it's the case as I'm not sure where that additional revenue is going to come for that signficant of a jump.  Unlike with the NFL, some MLB media contracts like ESPN are actually decreasing - the rights fees for 2022-2028 are for 20% less revenue than they've been getting and RSNs are hemorrhaging subscribers as more people cut cable.

If you were tasked with optimizing contention for the long term (i.e. not a build up for a 2-3 window and then tear it down and rebuild which would change the calculus) what percentage of overall payroll do you think you comfortably write off to bad contracts and be successful? 

Well, if you are doing things correctly, I think it’s fairly easy to have 25-30% written off.

But here’s the thing, the Os aren’t going to sign someone beyond that anyway. Their payroll is going to be so low for the next several years that they can easily have a contract go bad and be fine.  I don’t think people quite get just how small the payroll is going to be.

Im not saying this because I’m suggesting they go crazy with money but I think you are taking things to an extreme when you say they can’t afford a bad contract. Elias is saying the payroll will continue to rise and that’s obviously true. I think they end up in the 125-150M range and if they can win and keep attendance in the 2.5M range, maybe higher and maybe they sell and the new owner is willing to really beef it up. 

[RZNJ]

49 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I know that you have this 3 years in the future philosophy that you seem married to. But I have a question for you: Who wins besides the Angelos' family under this philosophy? Do the players like Adley and Gunnar who won't be able to have as many good players as possible to play with because heaven forbid they might ask for more than a 3 year deal? Do we as fans win as we watch the Orioles charge the same prices for tix and merch while they pocket all of the profits and don't improve the product/team significantly?

Do you really believe that it is the right thing to do for the organization to receive 300 million in revenue and refuse to spend 60-80 because they shouldn't risk a bad deal in 3 years? You do know they will have more than enough money to cover 5 bad deals at that time? How do you personally benefit if the Orioles do not spending money? 

How do you benefit from complaining about the Orioles not spending as much money as you want them to spend?  Just asking.

I enjoyed last season as much as any I can remember.   I'm happy where this organization is right now.   I would have loved to see them do something splashy and add Rodon.  As of now, I'm just sitting back to see what unfolds.  

[geschinger]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, if you are doing things correctly, I think it’s fairly easy to have 25-30% written off.

But here’s the thing, the Os aren’t going to sign someone beyond that anyway. Their payroll is going to be so low for the next several years that they can easily have a contract go bad and be fine.  I don’t think people quite get just how small the payroll is going to be.

Im not saying this because I’m suggesting they go crazy with money but I think you are taking things to an extreme when you say they can’t afford a bad contract. Elias is saying the payroll will continue to rise and that’s obviously true. I think they end up in the 125-150M range and if they can win and keep attendance in the 2.5M range, maybe higher and maybe they sell and the new owner is willing to really beef it up. 

I think that is way too high when even if we're maxing out paryoll we're going to be significantly outspent by those teams with significantly more revenue than Baltimore has.

I fully expect the Orioles like every team are going to end up with some bad contracts.  I would prefer those to come from bets that have a better chance of paying off.   I.e. I'd rather the bad contract being trading for and extending a guy like Lopez and having that not work out than a FA deal we know from day one is going to be a bad contract in the last x number of years.

I'd rather take advantage of the super low payroll this year by overpaying one or two guys to come in on a one year deal.  I think that makes a lot more sense than adding years or whatever to try to outbid other teams for someone like Rodon.

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I know that you have this 3 years in the future philosophy that you seem married to. But I have a question for you: Who wins besides the Angelos' family under this philosophy? Do the players like Adley and Gunnar who won't be able to have as many good players as possible to play with because heaven forbid they might ask for more than a 3 year deal? Do we as fans win as we watch the Orioles charge the same prices for tix and merch while they pocket all of the profits and don't improve the product/team significantly?

Do you really believe that it is the right thing to do for the organization to receive 300 million in revenue and refuse to spend 60-80 because they shouldn't risk a bad deal in 3 years? You do know they will have more than enough money to cover 5 bad deals at that time? How do you personally benefit if the Orioles do not spending money? 

Who wins if the Orioles hand out the $55-60m long term contracts you talked about in previous posts and the Orioles cannot sign all the guys to extensions?  And would they even want to sign an extension if the roster they are playing with has 40% of payroll (or whatever $55-60 would be) dedicated to unproductive players?  I'll tell you who doesn't win and that is the Orioles.  

I can tell you that this philosophy has been successfully used for a team that has been to the playoffs 6 consecutive years.  I don't see their fans being disappointed that team has taken that philosophy and run with it, do you?  

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

Who wins if the Orioles hand out the $55-60m long term contracts you talked about in previous posts and the Orioles cannot sign all the guys to extensions?  And would they even want to sign an extension if the roster they are playing with has 40% of payroll (or whatever $55-60 would be) dedicated to unproductive players?  I'll tell you who doesn't win and that is the Orioles.  

I can tell you that this philosophy has been successfully used for a team that has been to the playoffs 6 consecutive years.  I don't see their fans being disappointed that team has taken that philosophy and run with it, do you?  

The fans and the players win when the org spends money on quality players.

I’m not sure I can get into the narrative that 2 larger contracts will hamstring the team going forward 3 years into the future when we are actually paying no one right now. We have a bottom payroll currently and the club is flush with cash in the 250-300 million range from this year alone.

But hey listen. I don’t want to dissuade your interest and enthusiasm (lord knows we need it). I am just unable to join you in that approach and perspective. I am unable to invest in the idea of being interested at all in ownership pocketing profits and pretending to be poor. I am not even a millionaire yet, what is my incentive for being interested in a billionaire hoarding a few more millions? It’s not like they are going to give us fans discounts or even use some of the pocketed money at a future date.

But to each their own.

 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

The bolded statement I couldn't agree with more. My fear is that there are going to be a lot of fans who feel similarly.

The problem with treating fans like they are dumb in the modern age is that we have something called the internet where we can obtain information to find out things like the Orioles pocketing over 200 million in this one season alone.

I went to several games myself last year and enjoyed like you. But it is impossible with this type of spitting in the face action from ownership/management for me to support spending ANY money next year on this (and really in the foreseeable future). 

And I’m in the terrace box not the BOGO for $13 where you can take a kid free. 

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I think that is way too high when even if we're maxing out paryoll we're going to be significantly outspent by those teams with significantly more revenue than Baltimore has.

I fully expect the Orioles like every team are going to end up with some bad contracts.  I would prefer those to come from bets that have a better chance of paying off.   I.e. I'd rather the bad contract being trading for and extending a guy like Lopez and having that not work out than a FA deal we know from day one is going to be a bad contract in the last x number of years.

I'd rather take advantage of the super low payroll this year by overpaying one or two guys to come in on a one year deal.  I think that makes a lot more sense than adding years or whatever to try to outbid other teams for someone like Rodon.

Except most players worth going after aren’t signing 1 year deals.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

The numbers are fWAR. The list is from MLB.com. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2022-23-free-agents-by-position

Why FWAR? I don’t know the adjustment but he was clearly worse than Lyles last year. How he’s ranked that high is beyond me. He’s a 5th starter.