Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[Just Regular]

Frazier made $8mm last year too, so I guess the cross-pressures between his bad year by his standards and inflation nets to zero.

Taking OAA's biggest sample 2016-2022, it sees his 2B play 17th of 39 across all 6 years.    His year by year OAA percentiles run 6-74-95-96-73-90.

What little red exists in his Statcast batting percentiles (apart from Contact) is down the OBP column, for anyone focused on such a thing.

5-year scan of Chase Rate percentile among MLB Bats with 300 PA:

Frazier 73-54-69-57-52    (Odor had been 24-37-19-32-37)

On Julio's team last year, his most PA by lineup spot was 240...batting 1st.

[Emory Eagle]

If you look at his WAR last year (1.1) and projected WAR for 2023 (1.8 per Steamer), it's not really an overpay according to the $8.5 million per WAR ratio.  

Edited December 15, 2022 by Emory Eagle
typo

[Ripken]

15 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Elias is no fool. He did this for a reason. 

He has his plan. The money is peanuts. 

He may not be a fool but this is an incredibly foolish move.  He made the Orioles worse today. 

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, Emory Eagle said:

If you look at his WAR last year (1.1) and projected WAR for 2023 (1.8 per Steamer), it's not really an overpay according to the $8.5 million per WAR ratio.  

That’s not really the point. We’re not lacking MI. It’s not necessary to sign one, especially at that salary. 

[orioles22]

I hope Elias is putting together the pieces to trade for a pitcher.

We now have Urias, Mountcastle or Westburg (the one who stays plays first), Vavra, Stowers, Voth and maybe Hays to get a good starter.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Fair enough. 
 

So you think this is more of a bone to the MLBPA and others to look good? 

It could be.

I don't know.

Maybe Elias really thinks he can bounce back? 

Maybe he does really value a veteran presence on the team?

But what I do know is 8M isn't peanuts to the Orioles at this point.

[LookinUp]

3 minutes ago, Emory Eagle said:

If you look at his WAR last year (1.1) and projected WAR for 2023 (1.8 per Steamer), it's not really an overpay according to the $8.5 million per WAR ratio.  

I think this is true, but it's spending money in an area that isn't a need.

But Elias seems to think it's a need, so maybe a trade actually is coming.

[eddie83]

Just now, Just Regular said:

Frazier made $8mm last year too, so I guess the cross-pressures between his bad year by his standards and inflation nets to zero.

Taking OAA's biggest sample 2016-2022, it sees his 2B play 17th of 39 across all 6 years.    His year by year OAA percentiles run 6-74-95-96-73-90.

What little red exists in his Statcast batting percentiles (apart from Contact) is down the OBP column, for anyone focused on such a thing.

5-year scan of Chase Rate percentile among MLB Bats with 300 PA:

Frazier 73-54-69-57-52    (Odor had been 24-37-19-32-37)

On Julio's team last year, his most PA by lineup spot was 240...batting 1st.

Would think he hits second here or at bottom. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, eddie83 said:

Would think he hits second here or at bottom. 

I'd rather keep Adley hitting second.

 

[ThomasTomasz]

Really puzzled at first glance, but Frazier can fill in at numerous positions across the diamond, and at his best, he is a table-setter who can work at-bats.  Last year was awful, but my bet is that Frazier didn’t have much of a defined role and I also think he was hurt for part of the year?  Don’t quote me on that one.  

I think this means that Urias or Mateo could be on the move, but if it’s Urias, why bother with the trade and sign Frazier yourself.  That said……….I’m now thinking Mullins could be on the move, with Mateo or Hays shifting to CF.  

It really seems like we were taken aback at the price of starting pitching this year, and might be working the trade route to get the #2/#3 starter that we were hoping would be affordable under our budget.  

I definitely can’t judge this one without seeing what the rest of the off-season holds.  

[Emory Eagle]

Just now, waroriole said:

That’s not really the point. We’re not lacking MI. It’s not necessary to sign one, especially at that salary. 

Yeah, fair enough.  Decent utility / bench option and decent value though.  Barring a trade, just don't see this team making any dramatic moves this offseason at this point - I'm disappointed to be sure.  Any improvement next year is going to have to come from players inside the organization.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Ripken said:

He may not be a fool but this is an incredibly foolish move.  He made the Orioles worse today. 

I’m hoping there’s a trade in the works because there’s no real need for this move with the current roster and prospects on the horizon. 

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

It could be.

I don't know.

Maybe Elias really thinks he can bounce back? 

Maybe he does really value a veteran presence on the team?

But what I do know is 8M isn't peanuts to the Orioles at this point.

Are they super cheap in terms of 23 payroll or super cheap in terms of 3 year risks?
 

I still contend there is a big difference in a one year deal and a 3 year deal. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd rather keep Adley hitting second.

 

That’s fine. Just thinking if he gets on base in front of big boys. 

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, Emory Eagle said:

If you look at his WAR last year (1.1) and projected WAR for 2023 (1.8 per Steamer), it's not really an overpay according to the $8.5 million per WAR ratio.  

The trap with that though is he used 600 PA to compile what B-Ref has as 0.9 WAR.    That rate isn't good enough.

He's an oldish 2B who had one bad year after a very good 2018-2021.    Elias is saying he isn't cooked...we'll see.

Fangraphs 2018-2021 gives him as 14th best MLB 2B, but granted 2B at 30 can fall off cliffs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=