Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[owknows]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My question is, if the O’s win 88 games next year and make the playoffs, while Frazier and Gibson have decent but unspectacular seasons (better than Odor and Lyles in 2022 but just sort of averagish), are people going to be unhappy, saying we could have done even better?   Or will they say, “that was solid progress?”   My guess is, opinion will be split if that’s the case.   

It sort of seems like Elias wants one more season to let things sort themselves out.  
 

I'd be more inclined to accept this as an explanation if it didn't impede the development of players that should be part of the sorting.

Felt that same way about Odor last year.

Sometimes I think Elias tries to be a little too cute with the analytics, and the reclamation projects.

It's one thing to carry and stash a Rule 5 guy with the chance of getting something for nothing.. but it's something quite different to pay 8 million to carry a guy who isn't part of your future and impedes someone who could be.

Sometimes I think the success of Urias/Mateo have created an ego that drove the acquisition of Odor, Brett Phillips, and now Frazier.

Enough Project Guys already...  you have good players ready to graduate... play 'em

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I like Norby, but (1) he’s played all of 9 games in AAA, and (2) nobody’s raving about his defense at 2B.  I think he’s got a good shot to reach the majors in 2023, but it won’t be until midseason or later.   

I think this tells us what they think about Westburg and Vavra’s defense at 2B. Same with Norby. Why was Gunnar at 2B last year?  They obviously don’t think they have an MLB caliber 2B defensively. 
 

Here’s the value in Frazier… if you’re trying to win games you need the IF defense snug. Frazier does that. Now we also have four “plus” defenders for three positions. Not at all three though. 
 

I see Westburg and Norby getting ABs at 1B this year. Mountcastle is not guaranteed anything. Also, with no shift, you want a more “rangy” 1B. 

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It sort of seems like Elias wants one more season to let things sort themselves out.  

Half season, I hope.

I value Szymborski takes a lot as a Towson kid grown up national analyst, and the Spend Money, not Prospects for more information on how solid your 2022 improvement actually was (Gunnar, Voth, injury return Bradish, relievers) was I think in the right ballpark.   

The Gibson-Frazier moves align with that, as would anything Eovaldi-Kluber-Wacha-Smyly.    I don't have a lot of taste right now to pay the Pablo Lopez price because I think he's good not great.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

Odor was signed on a team that expected to have a losing season. When they were competing the GM still made moves for the future. 
 

If he sucks I can’t see them running him out there for 140 games.  

You are naïve if you think he's not going to play everyday at $8 million a year.

[sportsfan8703]

Why is everyone just laughing off the “no shift” for next year?  We don’t know what that is going to do.  The game has been geared towards a shift for a decade. So now players that put the ball in play might have more value. 

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, now said:

Here's a related question: Last year the O's missed the playoffs by 3 games. Just as a starting point, is it reasonable to assume that Gibson/Frazier will net 3 extra wins compared to Lyles/Odor?

 

I guess no regression is even possible among those proven arms of Bradish, Kremer, Voth ..and sure .. banking on a rookie even one as talented as Grayson .. sure no one could see that maybe all the pieces won’t line up quite like 2022. 
 

This is the same mentality in the offseason of 2012 that saw a much more proven lineup than we have now still regress in 2013 because once they made the playoffs they took their foot off the gas and stopped improving the team 

Exactly the same with the best team in the last ten years .. 2014 squad.. the mentality was oh we were close so let Cruz, Miller, Nick all walk and do zero to improve the team 

If they do not improve this team before spring training,  the 2023 team as is will win fewer games than 2022, imho. 

If not going to sign or trade for any substantial improvements, then try to sign Adley to a mega deal right now.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

To continue devil's advocacy: What if it leads to a trade you like?

I still think it was an overpay and that you could have waited and picked him, or someone like him, up near the start of Spring Training for less money.

But maybe I'm wrong and another team was interested for similar money.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

You are naïve if you think he's not going to play everyday at $8 million a year.

He’s going to play everyday versus RHP. Let’s just hope he’s somewhere in between his last two seasons. Big ballpark in SEA. He changed leagues. They’re banking on some bounce back value. 

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

You are naïve if you think he's not going to play everyday at $8 million a year.

If he has an OPS+ of 58 in mid July is he playing everyday? 
 

I said earlier the plan has to be to play him a lot. But if he is not performing they won’t keep running him out there. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I still think it was an overpay and that you could have waited and picked him, or someone like him, up near the start of Spring Training for less money.

But maybe I'm wrong and another team was interested for similar money.

I mean, Gibson got 10 and we all hated it and it turned out the Jays were offering the same.  I wouldn't be surprised if there were one or more teams offering him similar value to what he got in Bal.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I still think it was an overpay and that you could have waited and picked him, or someone like him, up near the start of Spring Training for less money.

But maybe I'm wrong and another team was interested for similar money.

We hired an analytics based GM. Frazier and his low K rate, plus the no shift next year, must look good in their projections. 

[Just Regular]

10 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

If he only plays 2B and LF then you still need to carry another utility player who can cover SS and 3B (and 3B) 

Some of Hyde's job this year could be getting a Gold Glover to embrace that role.

I thought Elias quotes about Gunnar mixing matching with two right-handed hitters in Mateo/Urias were interesting.    OMAR might be able to tease some efficient Mateo/Urias platoon scheme out of the ether thanks to Gunnar.

[Frobby]

Just now, Pickles said:

I mean, Gibson got 10 and we all hated it and it turned out the Jays were offering the same.  I wouldn't be surprised if there were one or more teams offering him similar value to what he got in Bal.

I agree.  It’s pretty much the going rate for an average 2B.  It just depends if you think he’s below average based on last year.  

[owknows]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

We hired an analytics based GM. Frazier and his low K rate, plus the no shift next year, must look good in their projections. 

Something something clubhouse guy something something

[Sydnor]

Elias has always struck me as incredibly risk-averse. There isn’t a lot of risk involved with signing Gibson and Frazier to one year deals. If they’re terrible, they’re gone in a year. If they’re good, they’re also gone in a year. I don’t particularly care for either move, but neither move surprises me. 

For example, signing Benintendi, who I think is a significantly better player than Frazier, would involve a 3-4 year commitment with an AAV of at least $14MM per year. That’s too risky for Elias. Bassitt was too risky for Elias at three years given his “the first year of the deal is the best” belief. I’ve taken heat, but I think his drafts (which have been good) avoid risk to the extent that he would rather draft John Rhodes than Bubba Chandler or some overslot high school player.

I think we had a good idea that Elias would be good at building a farm system, analytics department, etc. What we didn’t know and still don’t know is whether he is capable of taking a team ready to compete and putting it over the top. That involves risk.

His statements that he doesn’t think they can win the East lead me to believe that he doesn’t view this team as ready to compete. Maybe that’s why he’s unwilling to take any risks, but eventually he’s going to have to take a risk, or we’ll have lost Adley and Gunnar in 3 or 4 years without a playoff appearance, and we’ll hear that trading those players was for the best for the long-term health of the organization.