Are the Orioles done?

[HakunaSakata]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With the Brewers signing Wade Miley, I think a Eric Lauer for Ramon Urias trade picks up steam. I’m sure Elias would love to get their Comp Pick B, so it could be more than just a straight 1-1 swap. 

Yeah, I don't see it. Why would the Brewers trade Kolten Wong and then trade for Ramon Urias? I think they're pretty content going into the season with Miller as their 2B. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

I suspect another few small moves before Spring Training, then a larger move during it.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Yeah, I don't see it. Why would the Brewers trade Kolten Wong and then trade for Ramon Urias? I think they're pretty content going into the season with Miller as their 2B. 

Urias May not work for them but you should be able to figure something out. 

[HakunaSakata]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Urias May not work for them but you should be able to figure something out. 

I think the Brewers signing Miley has more to do with them not having complete faith in Ashby then it does them being too deep at SP. Folks have been speculating about the Brewers trading a pitcher for months, but I haven't seen a single report out of Milwaukee actually saying that they're actively looking to trade one.

[sportsfan8703]

16 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Yeah, I don't see it. Why would the Brewers trade Kolten Wong and then trade for Ramon Urias? I think they're pretty content going into the season with Miller as their 2B. 

I’ve read some Brewers articles where they would like another option as an infield bat because they are not sold on Luis Urias as a everyday player. The upcoming draft is loaded because of all the HS players that went to NCAA because of the 2020 shortened draft. It would be a coup if we could do something like,

Ramon Urias + Akin for Lauer + Comp Pick B. With picking lower this year, I have a feeling that Elias wants to get another comp pick like he did last year. That would help us bump up our pool money. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’ve read some Brewers articles where they would like another option as an infield bat because they are not sold on Luis Urias as a everyday player. The upcoming draft is loaded because of all the HS players that went to NCAA because of the 2020 shortened draft. It would be a coup if we could do something like,

Ramon Urias + Akin for Lauer + Comp Pick B. With picking lower this year, I have a feeling that Elias wants to get another comp pick like he did last year. That would help us bump up our pool money. 

Would be interesting seeing Ramon Urias competing with his brother for playing time.  

[Tony-OH]

On 1/5/2023 at 9:47 PM, Jammer7 said:

Come on, you know that isn’t what I am saying. All I said is you disagree with Elias, fine. Have at it. But if he is right, you and many others will have a whole lot of crow to eat. lol

I agree with you on some things. He did get good fortune on a few things, and that team overachieved. The fence made a huge difference, good and bad. The Means injury wasn’t unexpected, and that is really the only big injury. There will likely be some regression or injuries with a few pitchers. 

I think he is staying grounded, realistic in his expectations. He does not believe they are ready yet. I think he added a little value over 2022 with these moves, but not much. One year deals, so what. 

I think the McCann move was very underrated. The Gibson signing is likely to turn out to be better than most think. The Frazier signing, I am optimistic he can be a 2 WAR player again, but he has mechanical and timing issues he needs to fix. He’s a better hitter and defender than Odor. It’s a bit of an overpay to me, but I guess we’ll see.

At the end of the day, we do not know what he knows. We don’t know what the ownership situation really is. We don’t know how much they have invested in the infrastructure and coaching upgrades. A lot went into building the analytics group they have too. Their personnel costs off the field has certainly increased a lot. We don’t have access to all of the data they have, nor the opinions of their analysts and coaches that give advice on who they should sign, and what they can fix. Or what kind of fit a particular player might be in the clubhouse.

So, if it is wrong to take a wait and see attitude and have a little faith in a group that took a bunch of waiver wire pick ups to a few games within a wildcard birth, I don’t want to be right. 

I always find it interesting that those of us who question his moves will have to "eat crow" when he's right yet you guys don't pat us on the back when moves like Odor or Aguilar fail. I also don't see you guys eating crow when his moves backfire.

At the end of the day, I can see what Elias is doing by marginally improving areas and hoping the young players, starting pitchers and bullpen take a step forward. That doesn't mean some of us can't be disappointed when those are the moves vs bringing an impact starter and MOO, two things they needed to legitimately be a contender going into the season.

Now, could the Orioles be better than they were if everything works out perfect? Sure. The young players take steps forward and don't have those sophomore jinxes many players have, Kremer is for real, Bradish's last two months is who he really is at the major league level, Rodriguez stays healthy and is an impact starter right off, Frazier bounces back, Gibson can take a step forward with Holt and the fences, McCann stays healthy and bounces back, Givens is healthy and ready to bounceback a bit, Mountcastle and Hays bounceback, Santander stays healthy and returns to his level production, and Stowers is given everyday PAs and produces like he did in AAA. 

I mean, if that all happens then sure, the Orioles absolutely will be a playoff team and will at least be a contender. But that's a lot of things that have to bounce right for the Orioles.

[RZNJ]

No need to pat you guys on the back.

[Jammer7]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I always find it interesting that those of us who question his moves will have to "eat crow" when he's right yet you guys don't pat us on the back when moves like Odor or Aguilar fail. I also don't see you guys eating crow when his moves backfire.

At the end of the day, I can see what Elias is doing by marginally improving areas and hoping the young players, starting pitchers and bullpen take a step forward. That doesn't mean some of us can't be disappointed when those are the moves vs bringing an impact starter and MOO, two things they needed to legitimately be a contender going into the season.

Now, could the Orioles be better than they were if everything works out perfect? Sure. The young players take steps forward and don't have those sophomore jinxes many players have, Kremer is for real, Bradish's last two months is who he really is at the major league level, Rodriguez stays healthy and is an impact starter right off, Frazier bounces back, Gibson can take a step forward with Holt and the fences, McCann stays healthy and bounces back, Givens is healthy and ready to bounceback a bit, Mountcastle and Hays bounceback, Santander stays healthy and returns to his level production, and Stowers is given everyday PAs and produces like he did in AAA. 

I mean, if that all happens then sure, the Orioles absolutely will be a playoff team and will at least be a contender. But that's a lot of things that have to bounce right for the Orioles.

I was against Odor being in this team in the Spring, unless it was a marginal bench role. I defended his defense in mid season, but said it was time for him to go. I said he had contributed to Mateo’s growth and the team. I was never, in any way, in favor of Aguilar. And yes, I often admit when I am wrong. I did the other day with Vallimont. Feel free to call me out on a stance that turns out to be wrong. I’m not the guy to boast much when I was right about several things. 

You and I agree on many things. We are not all that polar when we disagree. The degrees of difference are often minor. My main points, so far, this off season is we may not be done yet, too soon. It is quite disappointing based on “Lift Off.” Yes, I join you in calling him out. I just don’t rant as loudly as the rest of you. And it makes little sense to be hypercritical of the moves made until we’re done. And then, let’s see how it goes with some of these that are bounce back types he got a bit cheaper than he may have gotten. 

Many things have to go right for a lot of teams, that is why depth is needed. He made mostly minor moves, no doubt. We don’t know the entire situation. It does not stop us from speculating, because that is what we do as intelligent and passionate fans. I don’t think he was ready, in his grand plans, for this team to contend in 2022. His moves at the deadline showed it. I was calling to trade some minor league depth last offseason.

I have had times where I have been critical of Elias. I get frustrated. I just don’t call him an idiot, or rant to an extreme. Overall, I absolutely think the organ is on the right track. I suspect the ownership issues are very limiting on the moves he wants to make. To say he didn’t make moves to make this team much better is true. Is it because he doesn’t know how to do so? I seriously doubt that is true. Is it because he is hamstrung? I do believe that one. Do I believe he may value his prospect capital more than some wish he would? Yes. I think he drives a tough trade negotiation, in general. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I always find it interesting that those of us who question his moves will have to "eat crow" when he's right yet you guys don't pat us on the back when moves like Odor or Aguilar fail. I also don't see you guys eating crow when his moves backfire.

At the end of the day, I can see what Elias is doing by marginally improving areas and hoping the young players, starting pitchers and bullpen take a step forward. That doesn't mean some of us can't be disappointed when those are the moves vs bringing an impact starter and MOO, two things they needed to legitimately be a contender going into the season.

Now, could the Orioles be better than they were if everything works out perfect? Sure. The young players take steps forward and don't have those sophomore jinxes many players have, Kremer is for real, Bradish's last two months is who he really is at the major league level, Rodriguez stays healthy and is an impact starter right off, Frazier bounces back, Gibson can take a step forward with Holt and the fences, McCann stays healthy and bounces back, Givens is healthy and ready to bounceback a bit, Mountcastle and Hays bounceback, Santander stays healthy and returns to his level production, and Stowers is given everyday PAs and produces like he did in AAA. 

I mean, if that all happens then sure, the Orioles absolutely will be a playoff team and will at least be a contender. But that's a lot of things that have to bounce right for the Orioles.

I know I will regret this and I am foolish to respond but I have been watching you grind on this for a long term and I want to give you another perspective.

Odor - Few wanted him but Elias signed him last off season.   Elias did not expect the team to contend in 2022.   He signed Odor cheap because of his rep for being a good clubhouse leader who could help guide the young players through the tough times. And he had the rep of being a good defensive 2B.  Both  those things turned out to be true.   

So why did he stick with Odor after the team started to win?  Winning is the reason he stuck with him.  The O's had a winning combination going.  Odor was turning double plays with regularity and the team gelled with him as a clubhouse/dugout leader.  He was the first guy cheerleading the team along with Chirinos and it was working.  The team was winning beyond expectations.

As far as Aguilar, he was pick up for nothing with a month to go in the season.   This is a guy that in 2021  hit 22 homer, 93 RBI, and had a 781 OPS.   Maybe they saw something they thought they could turnaround.  And to some degree they were right.

He only got 49 at bats but in 29 of them were vs righties who he hit 310/333/448/781.  It was the 20 AB vs lefties that he did not hit.  So the O's were not terribly wrong about him.  

Now you can grind that those AB should have gone to Stowers but Stowers went  247/247/387/669 vs righties.  The O's were still in a pennant race when Aguilar was acquired.   The O's were still trying to win.  And Aguilar out hit Stowers vs righties.

Its pretty clear to me that Elias expected to sign more expensive FA when he made comments before December 1st.    But the market when higher than he thought was reasonable.  Too many years and too many dollars.   So he lowers his sights and signed players that were better than what he had last year.  And is now dependent on the young players continuing on being the ones to show big improvement in 2023.

One thing that continues to be true is multi year contracts to FA for big dollars normally are bad bets.  Those players normally under perform their contracts.   I thought the owners and GM had learned that lessen before the current CBA was signed.   But here we are again watching owners throw big dollars at aging players.  Its basically stupid and history has shown that.

JMO and not meant to be confrontational.  Just another perspective.

Edited January 8, 2023 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

You lost me at Odor was a good defender last season.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You lost me at Odor was a good defender last season.

Yeah I thought that was weird. 

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You lost me at Odor was a good defender last season.

I am sure I lost you long before that.  Odor made too  many errors but he could really turn a double play.  His DPR was positive and he is was 3rd in the MLB in range factor for 2B.   I am not a big Odor supporter so I am not going to go to mat the defend him but I saw him hang in on DPs with a strong arm that made a difference for pitchers getting out of innings.

Edited January 8, 2023 by wildcard

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

I am sure I lost you long before that.  Odor made too  many errors but is could really turn a double play.  His DPR was positive and he is was 3rd in the MLB in range factor.   I am not a big Odor supporter so I am not going to go to mat the defend him but I saw him hang in on DPs with a strong arm that made a difference for pitchers getting out of innings.

Being good at turning double plays does not, in and of itself, make one a good defensive second baseman.

Surely even you understand that.

[Frobby]

Odor was a big defensive improvement over the 2021 2B clown show, but he was just okay.  Frazier is a defensive and offensive upgrade over Odor.