How will the OF/1B/DH plate appearances be allocated?

[Jim'sKid26]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hays has this rap of being oft-injured, and yet he was 22nd among major league outfielders in PA in 2022, 29th in 2021, 22nd for the two years combined.  I won’t contest that he was banged up in the second half of last year and probably should have played less than he did, but I feel the “oft-injured” label is a little dated at this point.   

Hays’ defense is a bit of a statistical Rorschach test: Rdrs and UZR say he was good, Rtot and OAA say he wasn’t.  Personally I think the former is closer to the truth.   One thing I do feel strongly about is he’s significantly better than Stowers has shown.  

Plate discipline?  I can’t dispute your point there.  

It might sound like I’m arguing to just stick Hays out there all year no matter what, but that’s not actually what I want to happen.   Instead, I prefer that Hays goes into the season playing most of the time, that Stowers also gets plenty of playing time, and if their play dictates that Stowers should play more than Hays as the year progresses, so be it.  


 

How would a Hays/Stowers Platoon in LF make you feel about both players.? Is Stowers capable of playing a league average LF? Does Hays stay healthier playing less? 

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He played half the year last year with injuries that effected him.

 

I have to agree here. I was watching a game from September the other night just because I was craving some baseball, and sure enough there's Hays grimacing and bending over at the plate and staying in the game, with the broadcast mentioning it as well. 

He's gotten pretty good at playing hurt for long stretches of the season. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by interloper

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

I have to agree here. I was watching a game from September the other night just because I was craving some baseball, and sure enough there's Hays grimacing and bending over at the plate and staying in the game, with the broadcast mentioning it as well. 

He's gotten pretty good at playing hurt for long stretches of the season. 

Yea, he’s good at playing hurt. He’s not just not good when he is playing hurt.

Edited January 5, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

Just now, Jim'sKid26 said:

How would a Hays/Stowers Platoon in LF make you feel about both players.? Is Stowers capable of playing a league average LF? Does Hays stay healthier playing less? 

Well, in a platoon the RH hitter is starting only about 30% of the time.  I don’t see that being Hays’ fate.  It stands to reason that the less a guy plays, the less the chances that he gets hurt, but that’s not a good way to run a ball club IMO.   

I think Stowers’ playing time will come (1) in the OF in lieu of Santander, (2) at DH, and (3) in the OF in lieu of Hays, in that order.   He doesn’t really need to be platooned based on his MiL track record, but Hyde will probably play him more often vs. RHP compared to LHP.
 

[CaptainRedbeard]

The Orioles seem determined to have a lefty backup 1B, which means that one of Stowers/Cowser/McCann will need to be in the lineup against LHP, even when everyone is healthy. I hope it will not be McCann at DH/1B and we instead give those reps to Stowers/Cowser to see if they can handle MLB lefties (particularly Stowers, since his MiL track record against LHP is good), but I’m not optimistic. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, he’s good at playing hurt. He’s not just not good when he is playing hurt.

He wasn’t good last year at playing hurt. In 2021, he hit very well down the stretch, then had core surgery a week after the season ended for some injury he’d played with since August.  So, it depends on the type of injury.   It’s an obvious fact that in general, players play better when they’re healthy than when they’re not.   

[eddie83]

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/orioles
 

Posted this is in the zips thread. Has projected playing time. Just scroll down a little. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

He wasn’t good last year at playing hurt. In 2021, he hit very well down the stretch, then had core surgery a week after the season ended for some injury he’d played with since August.  So, it depends on the type of injury.   It’s an obvious fact that in general, players play better when they’re healthy than when they’re not.   

Exactly..which is why counting on him to be healthy is foolish.

[spiritof66]

49 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

At the end of the day what it shows is there is no way one can project a ton of at bats at these positions for O’Hearn or McCann or Frazier for that matter. 

Injuries -- both the IL type and the a-few-days-of-rest kind -- will give O'Hearn and Frazier (or, I hope, their replacements by mid-season) more ABs.  Not going to go there with McCann.

I don't know of a way to project those ABs, but some opportunities will be there. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Injuries -- both the IL type and the a-few-days-of-rest kind -- will give O'Hearn and Frazier (or, I hope, their replacements by mid-season) more ABs.  Not going to go there with McCann.

I don't know of a way to project those ABs, but some opportunities will be there. 

The thing is even the smartest minds can’t project what will happen, nobody can. It’s dependent on too many variables. Outside from how you think a player will perform so many other things like injuries come into play. 
 

As far as Frazier and McCann, Frobby’s post is referring specifically to the OF/1B/DH.  

[btdart20]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, in a platoon the RH hitter is starting only about 30% of the time.  I don’t see that being Hays’ fate.  It stands to reason that the less a guy plays, the less the chances that he gets hurt, but that’s not a good way to run a ball club IMO.   

I think Stowers’ playing time will come (1) in the OF in lieu of Santander, (2) at DH, and (3) in the OF in lieu of Hays, in that order.   He doesn’t really need to be platooned based on his MiL track record, but Hyde will probably play him more often vs. RHP compared to LHP.
 

I wonder if the data shows how Hays/Stowers and Mounty/the alternatives do against certain types of pitchers?  Neither Hays nor Stowers really scream "platoon", but maybe one is solid against 4Seamer and the other is better against Cutters?  So, the usage wouldn't be the lefty/righty matchup but the predominant pitch.

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/orioles
 

Posted this is in the zips thread. Has projected playing time. Just scroll down a little. 

Thanks.   So let me sum this up and see how it plays out (690 PA = 100% playing time).   

Mullins 628

Santander 607

Moountcastle 600

Hays 587

Stowers 359

O’Hearn 207

Rutschman 131

McKenna 76

Frazier 14

Others 207

 

 

[eddie83]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks.   So let me sum this up and see how it plays out (690 PA = 100% playing time).   

Mullins 628

Santander 607

Moountcastle 600

Hays 587

Stowers 359

O’Hearn 207

Rutschman 131

McKenna 76

Frazier 14

Others 207

 

 

So the top 5 you were pretty dead on. One thing to me though is how they have Mountcastle getting those at bats. Projecting about 113 starts at 1B and 28 at DH.  I can’t see this team having 49 starts from other players at 1B. I also think Santander will DH more than they think. 
 

They have more playing time for O’Hearn and less for Frazier in the OF and less obviously for McKenna. 

[Just Regular]

If we keep everyone, I think Ramon Urias goes into this stew.

For all the wondering whether Santander or Stowers will take groundballs there, it seems possible Urias could run circles around them defensively whenever Mountcastle is rested.

I'm basically 50/50 whether Kyle Stowers or Ramon Urias is the starting DH.

The actions will tell, and I'll rejoice if it was just a training ploy to save wear and tear, but I believe Gunnar is a 3B not a SS, at least on Jorge Mateo's team.    Just give him the run at 160 games please!

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think one of the biggest questions going into spring training is how does Stowers look defensively?   I have the distinct impression that Hyde and the O’s brass were not happy with his defensive performance and will only increase his playing time significantly if he looks better defensively this spring.  Of course, that’s tricky, because spring training weather and stadium conditions are nothing like typical major league conditions.   

As a general matter, it’s my impression that the O’s weight defense more heavily than most of the fan base, and that their methods of evaluating defense differ from what one might conclude by looking at the publicly available metrics.  For example, I think they value Hays’ defense more highly than the public metrics might suggest.  
 

I don't disagree with this.  

Quite frankly, I could see some games where Henderson is at first, Urias is at third and Mateo is at SS.   Do I know if Gunnar can play first?  Sure don't, but I'm confident if he can dive and make a stop on a smash down the third base line, he can do it at first.  And pick a throw in the dirt.  In short, he's athletic enough to figure it out.  

How hard can it be?