Keith Law Top 100

[Sports Guy]

41 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Players would hate doing business with your organization. That hatred would grow over time and manifest itself in many other ways.

If you're talking about a single deal for a single player. Fine. But that's a terrible way to do business over time.

It literally happens with every team. So many deals go under slot. These guys aren’t forgoing pro ball for school over a little bit of money (relatively speaking).

If you guys just think players throw out a demand and teams bend over and say, sure go ahead, you are insane.

There are negotiations. 

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It literally happens with every team. So many deals go under slot. These guys aren’t forgoing pro ball for school over a little bit of money (relatively speaking).

If you guys just think players throw out a demand and teams bend over and say, sure go ahead, you are insane.

There are negotiations. 

With top picks, when they've put a number out there that some team has likely told them they'll get? You want to just play dumb, offer him less and very realistically cost a guy $1,000,000 that was essentially in the bank since another team committed to it?

Yeah. That'll go over really well. I'd wager it's exactly what Boston did with Fabian.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

With top picks, when they've put a number out there that some team has likely told them they'll get? You want to just play dumb, offer him less and very realistically cost a guy $1,000,000 that was essentially in the bank since another team committed to it?

Yeah. That'll go over really well. I'd wager it's exactly what Boston did with Fabian.

I’m saying if you want a guy who believes he should get 1M over slot and you offer him something at slot or close to it, he’s not turning it down.

You don’t know for sure what another team will do and you can’t plan for that. You take the guy you want. The slot bonuses has taken away a lot of this type of stuff imo.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It literally happens with every team. So many deals go under slot. These guys aren’t forgoing pro ball for school over a little bit of money (relatively speaking).

If you guys just think players throw out a demand and teams bend over and say, sure go ahead, you are insane.

There are negotiations. 

Most of the negotiations are done before the player is picked.  He Orioles knew Cowsers number before they picked him.  They didn't pick him and say take it or leave it.  Same with Trimble who was underslot. 

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m saying if you want a guy who believes he should get 1M over slot and you offer him something at slot or close to it, he’s not turning it down.

You don’t know for sure what another team will do and you can’t plan for that. You take the guy you want. The slot bonuses has taken away a lot of this type of stuff imo.

Nah. You're equivocating on this. 

Players don't just set a random value. They essentially let the market tell them their value. It's like a college basketball player who goes to the industry to see if he'll be a first round draft pick. That has a lot to do with whether players leave college or not.

And it's the same with the MLB draft. Lawler probably had multiple people tell him he's a 2-4 overall pick. Cowser probably 6-10. Arizona probably said they'd value him around #2/3. That tells him their number. Now he has a number that he can float to other teams. They're not exactly close, or they do a cost benefit like the O's did with Cowser, and it's just not worth it to go ahead and draft that player knowing full well you don't value him commensurate with what other teams do. 

And this problem really only happens with large amounts of money. If the O's valued him $100,000 less than the Diamondbacks, he'd be an Oriole.

[Can_of_corn]

23 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

With top picks, when they've put a number out there that some team has likely told them they'll get? You want to just play dumb, offer him less and very realistically cost a guy $1,000,000 that was essentially in the bank since another team committed to it?

Yeah. That'll go over really well. I'd wager it's exactly what Boston did with Fabian.

Fabian ended up with less than Boston offered right?

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fabian ended up with less than Boston offered right?

Yep. And a year later. They didn't offer what he thought he was worth and so he bet on himself rather than go to a team that he probably felt didn't respect the process.

That bet didn't pay off, at least in the short run, but I bet he has bad feelings toward Boston. They cost him money even if he took their money. That's a bad way to do business.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

Nah. You're equivocating on this. 

Players don't just set a random value. They essentially let the market tell them their value. It's like a college basketball player who goes to the industry to see if he'll be a first round draft pick. That has a lot to do with whether players leave college or not.

And it's the same with the MLB draft. Lawler probably had multiple people tell him he's a 2-4 overall pick. Cowser probably 6-10. Arizona probably said they'd value him around #2/3. That tells him their number. Now he has a number that he can float to other teams. They're not exactly close, or they do a cost benefit like the O's did with Cowser, and it's just not worth it to go ahead and draft that player knowing full well you don't value him commensurate with what other teams do. 

And this problem really only happens with large amounts of money. If the O's valued him $100,000 less than the Diamondbacks, he'd be an Oriole.

The "big four" year... Mayer, Lawlar, House, Watson.

12 of the first 14 (and 25 of the first 30) picks were either a HS player or an SP.  I think it's fair to say Elias wasn't picking an SP with the 1.5 pick.  I have to think based on the other players drafted in the first round, the pick was between Lawlar and Cowser.  The high talent HS SS over-slot at 1.5 (and less talent later) or the still high-quality hit tool with above average defense college OFer under-slot and additional talent later using the extra cash.  Plus, coming off the 2019/2020 successes with the under/over-slot picks is strong recency bias.

O's value 'high character'.  So maybe the bonus demands played against Lawlar?

2021 O's had $6.180m slot for their 1.5 pick.  Lawlar signed for about $500k over our slot.  But we signed Colton for $4.9 million.  So, it's a $1.8m swing so we could over-slot someone later. 

And those over-slot picks didn't play out...  Fabian for $3m was probably queued up at #41 with a slot value of $1.8m.  But was sniped by a team not following the rules of engagement (which is always a risk).  (But players walking is also a risk to teams that don't play by the rules of engagement.  And if they are represented by agents who represent other players there's collateral damage too.)  Plan B was Creed and Rhodes aren't looking as good as the over-slot guys from 2019/2020 (Gunnar/Mayo).  Lesson learned in 2022 with McLean and Carter Young.

 

For all the talk of Lawlar - How nice would Painter look in an O's uniform at this point?!