Grayson Rodriguez Expectations

[Just Regular]

I bet the Orioles would work the schedule to avoid it, but it would be such fantastic baseball theater if the MLB debut in Game 4 or 5 was G-Rod v. deGrom.

What if he just plain outpitched that guy that day?

[AnythingO's]

10 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I bet the Orioles would work the schedule to avoid it, but it would be such fantastic baseball theater if the MLB debut in Game 4 or 5 was G-Rod v. deGrom. What if he just plain outpitched that guy that day?

You are talking some serious 1966 stuff here: Kofax vs Palmer

[Il BuonO]

8 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

You are talking some serious 1966 stuff here: Kofax vs Palmer

Koufax was, in general, otherworldly in ‘66 and JP outpitched him. No small feat.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Il BuonO

[Jim'sKid26]

Erik Bedard's first full season with the O's was 2004. He pitched in 27 games and started 26 of them. He went 6-10 and had an ERA of 4.59. He threw 137.1 innings and gave up 149 hits and struck out 121 guys. ERA+ = 99, FIP= 4.22 WHIP=1.602. K/9= 7.9 H/9= 9.8 HR/9=0.9 BB/9= 4.7

I think Grayson will have a similar year. Bedard was 25 yo that year. Grayson is 23 this year. I think you can hope for a bit better, but I wouldn't expect it.

[interloper]

On 2/9/2023 at 11:50 AM, Aristotelian said:

Expecting 125 IP, 3.25 ERA. Reasonably hoping for 2.75.

Not sure why people are being so conservative. 4.00 ERA would be a disappointment for me. Not shocking, but still disappointing. 

This seems pretty unreasonable for a rookie in the AL East. Guys take a couple years to find it, even if they're really special.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Erik Bedard's first full season with the O's was 2004. He pitched in 27 games and started 26 of them. He went 6-10 and had an ERA of 4.59. He threw 137.1 innings and gave up 149 hits and struck out 121 guys. ERA+ = 99, FIP= 4.22 WHIP=1.602. K/9= 7.9 H/9= 9.8 HR/9=0.9 BB/9= 4.7

I think Grayson will have a similar year. Bedard was 25 yo that year. Grayson is 23 this year. I think you can hope for a bit better, but I wouldn't expect it.

It’s not really analogous.  Bedard had missed more than a full year with TJ surgery and only threw 19.1 innings in 2003.   He also skipped AAA entirely and had thrown only about 70 innings of AA. And, Bedard just generally wasn’t as refined a pitcher when he reached the majors as GRod is now.  

Also, Bedard entered the league at a time when offense was at a peak, and he didn’t benefit from the current park dimensions.   His 4.59 ERA was good for an ERA+ of 99.   Last year that would nave equated to about 4.10.

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, interloper said:

This seems pretty unreasonable for a rookie in the AL East. Guys take a couple years to find it, even if they're really special.

I am tired of hearing that top pitching prospects can't graduate to the majors and pitch like an above average starter right away.  It seems like Tampa was a pitcher like that about every other year.  Would be an interesting exercise to check.  The last starting pitcher to overperform in their first year in the majors was Mussina in 1991/1992.  (1991 was a half year).  That's 30 years!  30 years of feeling like the next O's top pitching prospect would come the majors and dominate and then feeling like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, interloper said:

This seems pretty unreasonable for a rookie in the AL East. Guys take a couple years to find it, even if they're really special.

This just isn’t true.

[interloper]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This just isn’t true.

It's sometimes true. Maybe not always. Definitely not putting my money on Grayson being an instant ace lol... That would be silly. Hope I'm wrong of course but this thread is about expectations not hopes. I expect him to be good. I'm not expecting him to be an ace out of the gate. 

Edited February 11, 2023 by interloper

[Aristotelian]

9 hours ago, interloper said:

This seems pretty unreasonable for a rookie in the AL East. Guys take a couple years to find it, even if they're really special.

Alek Manoah put up 3.22 ERA as a rookie in 100 IP as the Jays #7 prospect with 35 innings of minor league experience. It can be done. 

Also, division is now basically irrelevant due to the balanced schedule. We will have 100 games outside the AL East. It may still be hard to win the division but our strength of schedule should not be meaningfully different.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I am tired of hearing that top pitching prospects can't graduate to the majors and pitch like an above average starter right away.  It seems like Tampa was a pitcher like that about every other year.  Would be an interesting exercise to check.  The last starting pitcher to overperform in their first year in the majors was Mussina in 1991/1992.  (1991 was a half year).  That's 30 years!  30 years of feeling like the next O's top pitching prospect would come the majors and dominate and then feeling like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football.

John Means sort of did it.  134 OPS+ in his first season, 103 in his second (which was the Covid year), 123 in his third.  Not bad for a guy who was a borderline top 30 prospect.  

[Frobby]

I just thought I’d throw a few objective projections into the mix:

Steamer 139 IP, 3.84 ERA

ZiPS: 110.2 UP, 3.98 ERA

THE BAT: 114 IP, 3.78 ERA

Clay Davenport: 106.1 IP, 3.33 ERA

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

It's sometimes true. Maybe not always. Definitely not putting my money on Grayson being an instant ace lol... That would be silly. Hope I'm wrong of course but this thread is about expectations not hopes. I expect him to be good. I'm not expecting him to be an ace out of the gate. 

This is fine..but it’s completely different than what you said before which, was completely inaccurate.

Im not expecting ace. I’m expecting solid MOR type guy. Better than that is certainly possible and worse than that would be a huge disappointment.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is fine..but it’s completely different than what you said before which, was completely inaccurate.

Im not expecting ace. I’m expecting solid MOR type guy. Better than that is certainly possible and worse than that would be a huge disappointment.

I think how I’d put it is I’m expecting no worse than a solid MOR guy.  How much better than that remains to be seen.   I’d be less surprised by a TOR performance than a BOR or worse performance.  

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/10/2023 at 12:44 PM, Just Regular said:

I bet the Orioles would work the schedule to avoid it, but it would be such fantastic baseball theater if the MLB debut in Game 4 or 5 was G-Rod v. deGrom.

What if he just plain outpitched that guy that day?

The Hangout site would crash due to excessive traffic.  Also Las Vegas line on O's postseason chances would move.