Kyle Bradish 2022 Deep Dive and A Game Plan for 2023

[nvpacchi]

It’s no surprise to the Hangout and semi-serious Orioles fans that Kyle Bradish was a great surprise for our pitching staff, especially with the results he compiled after the all-star break.  His body of work last season was enough to firmly land him in this season’s opening day rotation, and hopefully he is ready to improve upon his impressive second half of 2022.

But what made Bradish’s breakout possible; and maybe more importantly, is it repeatable?  I dug into some data suggesting that it is, and why we can be encouraged and hopeful that Bradish has the stuff to be a consistent mid-rotation starter in Baltimore.

All pitch data I used comes from baseballsavant.com, and higher level statistics (like FIP are from fangraphs.com).

Part I – What changed for Bradish?

At first glance, Bradish end of season numbers would leave most unimpressed.  A disastrous 4.90 ERA, 4.46 FIP, and a pedestrian 12.8% K-BB rate marks most as a quad A, high reliever risk profile.  But once he came back from the IL, returning at the end of July, something clicked for Bradish.

In 71 second half innings he led Baltimore to a 3.28 ERA, and a much more robust 3.73 FIP.  The highlight of his results was two 8+ innings against a dangerous Astros lineup (one in which he was one out away from going the distance).  Still the profile does not come without risk.  Despite his improvements in the second half, he didn’t strike out more batters, and in fact he walked a higher percentage of his opponents.  He still runs the risk of never being a huge strikeout guy, but the nature of the contact he let up changed significantly.  So what changed?

Combing through the data the first thing that stood out was the wildly different release point that started occurring deep into the summer.  He didn’t change his mechanics, but rather he began to position himself much further on the first base side of the rubber.  Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun wrote after his first dominant performance against Houston that he was inspired by Corbin Burnes.  Whether he did this all himself or had some guidance from Oriole’s coaching (likely) his starting position all fits in nicely to the story of what changed for Bradish.

 

Also notice those purplish/pink data points that begin to appear on the figure above.  It’s a pitch that Bradish didn’t have in his arsenal early in the year, but one he came to rely on more and more.  Enter the sinker.  It was almost out of necessity that Bradish had to change his primary heater.  His 4 seamer, while thrown with average velocity and spin, is too flat to miss many bats.  His average vertical ride and minimal tail make the pitch far too straight, and far too easy to square up.  When opposition connected they didn’t miss – torching the 4seamer to the tune of a .321 BA and .539 SLG last season.  But the sinker, while he only threw it 86 times, gave him a new weapon to fend off right-handed batters.  The pitch doesn’t have the action of a classic sinker in the Zach Britton or Brandon Webb mold, but it gives him a lot more horizontal tail, making it difficult to square up.  The sample is extremely small, but in 17 balls in play, the average exit velocity was only 79 MPH off his sinker.  Also important, he is not scared to throw it to righties, that helps him to pair his sinker with his best pitch: his slider.

(below) Kyle Bradish's fastball movement profile.  The sinker gives him very similar ride with an additional 13 inches of tail away from lefties.  Throwing it close to a tick faster doesn't hurt things either.

Edited February 10, 2023 by nvpacchi

[nvpacchi]

Part 2: Everyone knows that Bradish’s slider is his go to pitch.  The Pitching Ninja even put together a two minute clip of mouthwatering Bradish sliders.  He throws it hard, he spins it well, and he minimizes hard contact.  But what if I told you that Bradish’s slider got better as the year went on?

Interestingly Bradish had two pretty distinct sliders this year.  In the first half he threw a slower, more movement-based slider, but then came back after the all-star break with a harder ‘straighter’ slider.  I use straighter in quotation marks, because it still has significant movement.  So much movement, that out of all right-handed pitchers that throw sliders over 87 MPH only Calvin Faucher was able to generate as much horizontal movement as Bradish.  There’s some nasty names on that list, and Bradish’s slider even passes Eno Sarris’s stuff plus model, classifying it as an elite pitch.

The batted ball data is undeniable too, while Bradish isn’t getting the same swinging strike numbers on his slider as he did in the first half of the year – opposition cannot square it up.  xwOBA and EV numbers trended down in the second half of the year. And when he can bucket it with plus control (like he did for that stretch against Houston and Cleveland), the pitch is deadly.

The first graph below is his slider versus fastball usage as the year went along.  Not surprisingly it led better average rolling exit EVs, and xwOBA, because he was using his best pitch more often.  He still peaked and valleyed with his swinging strike rate (last chart), but a harder but still heavy slider was a difficult combination for hitters, nonetheless.

S Bradish's Jul/Aug slider may have had the best combo results of swinging strike rate and xwOBA.  But I'll take the September slide that is harder, with less drop.  It makes it even more distinct from his curve.  A <30% hard hit rate suggests players cannot square it, even if he is leaving it up a bit compared to his April slider.

Edited February 10, 2023 by nvpacchi

[emmett16]

Wow.  Thanks dude.  Your awesome.  Now to waste an hour or so haha. 

[nvpacchi]

Part 3: Improvements and Prepping for 2023

2022 was a storm for Bradish, and he weathered it well.  The improved contact quality against demonstrated that he learned how to pitch, and can now build off that to hopefully become a more dominant presence on the mound.

 

The stuff plays, with two plus breaking balls (I didn’t even get to talk about the curve) and a sinker that can potentially play average – he has a better movement profile now, making it harder for batters to sit slider.  But for him to take the next step, it all comes down to location and command, which is still fringy.  Even with all the improvements in the second half, his walk rate still increased slightly (probably partially due to being more careful with hitters).  Even with decidedly better stuff in the second half, he wasn’t consistently able to piece together to miss more bats – and I think this is partially related to his struggles with placement of his pitches.

Id like to see that swinging strike rate at the end of the season more in line with what he was doing in Apr/Jun

His slider in the first half crossed the plate 2 inches closer to the bottom of the zone, than the second half.  The increase in velo helped the revamped slider play better but getting more comfortable with a new slider with less break should hopefully help him place it closer to the bottom of the zone.

Additionally, in a very small sample, he has not yet demonstrated the ability to get his sinker lower in the zone.  But again, he still needs to get comfortable with the new arsenal at his disposal.

If the location comes, to me it feels like the profile of a guy who can be an easy #2 in most rotations.  Better placement will lead to more swing and miss, already coming from a guy who gave up weaker and weaker contact as the year went along.  As he keeps throwing his best pitch and limiting his worst, it gives him a chance to fulfill that #2 ceiling.  I as I’m sure all of you as well, will certainly be cheering for that.

Thank you so much for reading, I hope you all enjoyed, and I’d love to do more of these writeups as the season goes on.  This is the first writeup I’ve done like this, so I’m all ears on feedback of all sorts.

[nvpacchi]

14 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Wow.  Thanks dude.  Your awesome.  Now to waste an hour or so haha. 

Thank you - I hope you enjoy!

[Tony-OH]

This is just amazing work! Fantastic job! I'm still combing through it but really, really well done.

 

[Frobby]

That’s impressive research and presentation.  I’ll probably have to come back to this one in-season — it’s a lot to digest in one sitting.  

I’d love to see an analysis like this on Hall, though the sample size is obviously way smaller.  
 

[LookinUp]

Wonderful stuff.

With better placement of the slider and sinker down in the zone, I think it would stand to reason that his average 4s fastball might play better up in the zone than before. 

With the development of the rest of his arsenal, do you think that 4s FB can play up "as is" or does he still need to work on tweaking it to be an effective change of eye level?

[RZNJ]

I'm also impressed.  Thank you.  Quality work.

[Spy Fox]

Get that fan a contract! (In the front office)

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Get that fan a contract! (In the front office)

Stuff like that does happen.

[Tony-OH]

41 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Wonderful stuff.

With better placement of the slider and sinker down in the zone, I think it would stand to reason that his average 4s fastball might play better up in the zone than before. 

With the development of the rest of his arsenal, do you think that 4s FB can play up "as is" or does he still need to work on tweaking it to be an effective change of eye level?

In theory that does sound good, but the one thing I noted is that he threw his 2 and 4-seamer at about the same vertical height, but was able to get one to move left (cut) and one to more move right (sinker). I wonder if tunneling those pitches in the same area is what help them both play up a bit in September?

The sinker (it's more of a traditional two-seamer than a sinker) is not really great with it's movement, so I think throwing it in the same area vs high for the 4-seamer and Low for the sinker (2-seamer) help them "tunnel" a bit then move in different directions. that can not be easy on hitters.

 

 

 

 

[btdart20]

@nvpacchi Nice!

Some notable points from your research: 

* His body position on the rubber also looks more closed as well. 

* The release point cluster in Sept/Oct looks really tight, which hints at repeating his throwing motion consistently... 

* Interesting note about his changed slider profile. 

Ultimately, you're right that it's more about quality of contact/pitching more.  Probably a bit of the mental approach of "Trust your stuff and hit the mitt!"  In another thread, I noted that the sinker was unveiled in September only.  The BB% and K% regressed pretty significantly from that point on, but his batted ball metrics improved significantly as well.  And the sinker was only thrown to RHB (only 1 to a LHB). 

The change in EV allowed in the second half was noticeable as well.  FIP of 3.73 in the second half (3.54 after the sinker was introduced).  More GB and a much improved HR/FB ratio as well.  

A lot of really good reasons to be excited to see what Bradish has in store for 2023!  A top 50-60 SP (i.e. an SP2) is a pretty lofty statement!  I like it!  I'm hoping for a strong #3 in 2023.

[nvpacchi]

23 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

@nvpacchi Nice!

Some notable points from your research: 

* His body position on the rubber also looks more closed as well. 

* The release point cluster in Sept/Oct looks really tight, which hints at repeating his throwing motion consistently... 

* Interesting note about his changed slider profile. 

Ultimately, you're right that it's more about quality of contact/pitching more.  Probably a bit of the mental approach of "Trust your stuff and hit the mitt!"  In another thread, I noted that the sinker was unveiled in September only.  The BB% and K% regressed pretty significantly from that point on, but his batted ball metrics improved significantly as well.  And the sinker was only thrown to RHB (only 1 to a LHB). 

The change in EV allowed in the second half was noticeable as well.  FIP of 3.73 in the second half (3.54 after the sinker was introduced).  More GB and a much improved HR/FB ratio as well.  

A lot of really good reasons to be excited to see what Bradish has in store for 2023!  A top 50-60 SP (i.e. an SP2) is a pretty lofty statement!  I like it!  I'm hoping for a strong #3 in 2023.

 

34 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

In theory that does sound good, but the one thing I noted is that he threw his 2 and 4-seamer at about the same vertical height, but was able to get one to move left (cut) and one to more move right (sinker). I wonder if tunneling those pitches in the same area is what help them both play up a bit in September?

The sinker (it's more of a traditional two-seamer than a sinker) is not really great with it's movement, so I think throwing it in the same area vs high for the 4-seamer and Low for the sinker (2-seamer) help them "tunnel" a bit then move in different directions. that can not be easy on hitters.

 

 

 

 

How he tries to use the sinker and four seam in tandem may be the most interesting early season development for him.  As btdart pointed it out, it is a bit surprising he only threw one sinker to lefties.

[nvpacchi]

25 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

@nvpacchi Nice!

Some notable points from your research: 

* His body position on the rubber also looks more closed as well. 

* The release point cluster in Sept/Oct looks really tight, which hints at repeating his throwing motion consistently... 

* Interesting note about his changed slider profile. 

Ultimately, you're right that it's more about quality of contact/pitching more.  Probably a bit of the mental approach of "Trust your stuff and hit the mitt!"  In another thread, I noted that the sinker was unveiled in September only.  The BB% and K% regressed pretty significantly from that point on, but his batted ball metrics improved significantly as well.  And the sinker was only thrown to RHB (only 1 to a LHB). 

The change in EV allowed in the second half was noticeable as well.  FIP of 3.73 in the second half (3.54 after the sinker was introduced).  More GB and a much improved HR/FB ratio as well.  

A lot of really good reasons to be excited to see what Bradish has in store for 2023!  A top 50-60 SP (i.e. an SP2) is a pretty lofty statement!  I like it!  I'm hoping for a strong #3 in 2023.

thanks! yeah I agree I went a little bullish saying he has #2 upside - certainly lofty! Having 2 above average breaking balls certainly helps set him apart, but getting that command in sync is huge for it to come true.