Angelos Claims He's Not Selling

[Pickles]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Most teams do operate at a profit, actually.  I looked in 2019 and the average operating income was in the $40 mm range.   

What I’ve noticed is that teams aren’t metronomes.   They don’t stay in the same narrow operating profit band every year.   They don’t stay in the same narrow payroll band every year.  These things go up and down and a lot of times it depends where a team is in its competitive cycle, and also how many of its top players happen to be in the cheaper phases of their career.   If you’re doing a 5-year projected budget for the Orioles right now, you need to know that Adley costs $700 k in 2023 but is likely to cost $15 mm+ in 2027.   
 

While this is all true, I'm just pointing out that the Angelos family is dependent upon the revenue of the O's in a way that the Lerners aren't in DC, or that Bisciotti isn't with the Ravens.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Angelos is in negotiation with the State on what Camden will evolve into.   It will probably be a sales pitch for what he want to see happen.

Right, and I don't disagree with that.

But here's the deal, he can't say he's going to open up the books twice, then finally do it for the media and spin it into a sales pitch about what he wants Camden Yard to evolve into.  He's going to be in front of a bunch of media members who are pissed about a bait and switch if he tries that.

Now again, maybe he doesn't care about that.  But I think what we're seeing here is JA making attempts to have a better relationship with the media.  That's an uphill battle for him but he's made himself more available to the media in the past month than he has in the past 5 years.  I don't believe that's an accident.

I believe we'll get that sales pitch you've described but we're also going to see some watered down financials and nothing really major to chew on.  

[Frobby]

Just now, Pickles said:

While this is all true, I'm just pointing out that the Angelos family is dependent upon the revenue of the O's in a way that the Lerners aren't in DC, or that Bisciotti isn't with the Ravens.

Definitely true.   The firm isn’t dead, but it’s shrinking and I wouldn’t bet on Lou being able to attract clients the way his father did.   

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think it would be in character for Angelos to ask Elias to do both.  Maximize profit and win baseball games.  Actually winning baseball games is a way to increase profits.

Well, John Angelos did say something to the effect of once the attendance improves so will the payroll. He basically put it on the fans to show up before he will spend.

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Definitely true.   The firm isn’t dead, but it’s shrinking and I wouldn’t bet on Lou being able to attract clients the way his father did.   

If it isn't dead, it is dying. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Pickles said:

If it isn't dead, it is dying. 

I don’t understand exactly what’s going on, but there are two separate issues:

1.  As a matter of legal ethics, Peter Angelos is no longer competent to practice law or supervise other lawyers. Only a lawyer can have an ownership interest in a law firm, but Peter shouldn’t have a license anymore.   

2.  Lou can own a law firm, but why would other lawyers want to work for him unless he has some unique abilities and ability to attract and retain clients?   

I’m sure there are some very skilled lawyers at the Angelos Law Firm, but why should they continue to work there as employees?  I could imagine a scenario where the firm continues, but under a new structure where the more important lawyers in the firm are all partners and share the profits.  But honestly, I don’t fully understand how the old structure worked.

 

[Moose Milligan]

With all the self-admitted lawyers have have come out of the closet over the past couple days, Tony should change the name of this place to LawyersHangout.com, sheesh.

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Right, and I don't disagree with that.

But here's the deal, he can't say he's going to open up the books twice, then finally do it for the media and spin it into a sales pitch about what he wants Camden Yard to evolve into.  He's going to be in front of a bunch of media members who are pissed about a bait and switch if he tries that.

Now again, maybe he doesn't care about that.  But I think what we're seeing here is JA making attempts to have a better relationship with the media.  That's an uphill battle for him but he's made himself more available to the media in the past month than he has in the past 5 years.  I don't believe that's an accident.

I believe we'll get that sales pitch you've described but we're also going to see some watered down financials and nothing really major to chew on.  

JA:  “I’m not going to be able to pull out the payrolls and show you everything financially, but I can give you a full picture for the business. I can certainly give you a picture of what our objectives are.”

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

JA:  “I’m not going to be able to pull out the payrolls and show you everything financially, but I can give you a full picture for the business. I can certainly give you a picture of what our objectives are.”

Media:  "Well then why the **** are we here?"

[SemperFi]

11 minutes ago, deward said:

I can tell you from personal experience that many companies will determine at the top what they want their total opex figure to look like and then tell everyone else to figure out how to make it work. Sometimes that number is realistic, sometimes....not so much.

Having built budgets for another sport here is how I would guess it works for the Orioles.  Elias and his team yearly build two budgets a one year and then a longer term 3/5 year budget  They  then present to the executive team (not just JA) for discussion/approval.  Elias should have a good idea what the budget framework is to begin with but it's also his job to push, remember he's costed with revenue and expenses not just expenses as many here seem to think.  I'm sure he has "dry powder" in the budget that may or may not be used, he also has contigancies that would need JA (not executive team) approval- ie adding payroll at the deadline etc... 

He may also feel (as I do) that for a myriad of reasons the fans will not come back at the levels they once did-couple that with declining cable revenue (v. streaming) and the need to budget LT for possible extentions and you get a conservative long term approach.

So JA is technically correct when he says he does not set budgets (I don't believe they use a top down budget process) however he is certainly involved in the process, the ultimate authority.

Two other notes, the Angelos family even with the law firm concerns does not have to worry financially.  If JA pulled in $400k running MASN, he probably writes himself a check for $2m annually to run the Orioles.  Secondly his fascination with concerts is not just because he likes music, it's a secondary revenue stream-the Orioles keep almost all of the revenue from concerts under an amended agreement with the MSA. 

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/05/11/stadium-authority-was-wrong-to-accept-one-sided-concert-deal-state-treasurer-says/

[geschinger]

45 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, John Angelos did say something to the effect of once the attendance improves so will the payroll. He basically put it on the fans to show up before he will spend.

I think that may just be him describing how it usually works.  The Orioles had a nice bump in attendance in 2012 followed by a significant increase in payroll in 2013.  Guessing that pattern is a lot more common than in reverse - the big increase in payroll driving attendance gains.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, John Angelos did say something to the effect of once the attendance improves so will the payroll. He basically put it on the fans to show up before he will spend.

The problem is, fans aren’t coming to the games in 2023, which means he will have this attitude for next offseason too.

When does the cycle end and he says we need to spend money to make money?

[Sports Guy]

42 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Having built budgets for another sport here is how I would guess it works for the Orioles.  Elias and his team yearly build two budgets a one year and then a longer term 3/5 year budget  They  then present to the executive team (not just JA) for discussion/approval.  Elias should have a good idea what the budget framework is to begin with but it's also his job to push, remember he's costed with revenue and expenses not just expenses as many here seem to think.  I'm sure he has "dry powder" in the budget that may or may not be used, he also has contigancies that would need JA (not executive team) approval- ie adding payroll at the deadline etc... 

He may also feel (as I do) that for a myriad of reasons the fans will not come back at the levels they once did-couple that with declining cable revenue (v. streaming) and the need to budget LT for possible extentions and you get a conservative long term approach.

So JA is technically correct when he says he does not set budgets (I don't believe they use a top down budget process) however he is certainly involved in the process, the ultimate authority.

Two other notes, the Angelos family even with the law firm concerns does not have to worry financially.  If JA pulled in $400k running MASN, he probably writes himself a check for $2m annually to run the Orioles.  Secondly his fascination with concerts is not just because he likes music, it's a secondary revenue stream-the Orioles keep almost all of the revenue from concerts under an amended agreement with the MSA. 

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2022/05/11/stadium-authority-was-wrong-to-accept-one-sided-concert-deal-state-treasurer-says/

And he is trying to build his wife’s career in the country music industry. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The problem is, fans aren’t coming to the games in 2023, which means he will have this attitude for next offseason too.

What makes you say fans aren’t coming to the games in 2023?  Do you have some intel on this, or are you just speculating?

i would guess there’s a 200 k bump this year so long as the team stays in the race past the ASB.  Purely a guess, but one based on past history.  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What makes you say fans aren’t coming to the games in 2023?  Do you have some intel on this, or are you just speculating?

i would guess there’s a 200 k bump this year so long as the team stays in the race past the ASB.  Purely a guess, but one based on past history.  

It could be some kind of a bump, as you suggest but I doubt it’s enough to cause him to make real improvements and if the team takes a step back, which is highly possible, I think that deters him as well.