ZIPS Prospect Ranking for 2023 Season

[Pickles]

Over at fangraphs they have released a ZIPS prospect ranking for the 2023 season.  So it's basically just a list of the top 100 rookie projected performances for 2023.  Obviously, factoring in only projections for the upcoming season will "hurt" a guy like Holliday, just because he's so far from the bigs.  Here's where the Orioles fall on the list:

2. Henderson

8. Rodriguez

28. Mayo

47. Hall

82. Westburg

85. Rom

86. Norby

88. Ortiz

A couple things jump out to me:

1) They love Coby Mayo.

2. They hate Cowser.  It's understandable why a guy like Holliday would slip off a list like this, but Cowser is a top 5 pick from college, who has already reached AAA, and he doesn't project as a top 100 rookie in 2023?  That's crazy to me.

3.. Nice to see my boy Rom get some love.  I still have hope he becomes a future rotation piece.

[Frobby]

There’s some discussion of this over in the minor league forum:

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/47279-fangraphs-top-100/#comment-2873986

Cowser apparently ranked 105th, and would have ranked 87th without his so-so performance in AAA over the final month (which breaks down into a terrible first ten games and a very good final 17 games).   

[Aristotelian]

27 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Over at fangraphs they have released a ZIPS prospect ranking for the 2023 season.  So it's basically just a list of the top 100 rookie projected performances for 2023.  Obviously, factoring in only projections for the upcoming season will "hurt" a guy like Holliday, just because he's so far from the bigs.  Here's where the Orioles fall on the list:

 

I'm not clear what they are ranking. This can't be what they are actually expected to produce in 2023. Mayo is probably starting in AA so anything more than a cup of coffee would be a surprise. Hard to believe there is any scenario he is more productive than Westburg or Hall. Is the projection based on what they might do if they started the year in MLB? 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm not clear what they are ranking. This can't be what they are actually expected to produce in 2023. Mayo is probably starting in AA so anything more than a cup of coffee would be a surprise. Hard to believe there is any scenario he is more productive than Westburg or Hall. Is the projection based on what they might do if they started the year in MLB? 

Projected career WAR.

[Pickles]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s some discussion of this over in the minor league forum:

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/47279-fangraphs-top-100/#comment-2873986

Cowser apparently ranked 105th, and would have ranked 87th without his so-so performance in AAA over the final month (which breaks down into a terrible first ten games and a very good final 17 games).   

Ah, I should have looked I guess.  Only slowly starting to leave offseason mode mentally.

[Pickles]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Projected career WAR.

My understanding is that it was projected WAR for 2023 only.  Surely if it was career WAR, Holliday would remain on the list, no?

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Pickles said:

My understanding is that it was projected WAR for 2023 only.  Surely if it was career WAR, Holliday would remain on the list, no?

No, it’s projected career WAR.   ZiPS didn’t rank any 2022 draftees because they don’t have enough of a pro track record for ZiPS to make projections.  

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, it’s projected career WAR.   ZiPS didn’t rank any 2022 draftees because they don’t have enough of a pro track record for ZiPS to make projections.  

I see.  Thanks for the correction.