Fangraphs Top 100

[eddie83]

Has 6 Orioles. No Cowser or Westburg. 

[CharmCityHokie]

13 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Has 6 Orioles. No Cowser or Westburg. 

It's an interesting list, and I think Longenhagen has always leaned into age/youth being an important factor in prospect status (and I'm not disputing that being important), its just interesting to see how different experts who do these lists as their jobs every day rank so differently and what they see as important. 

[ShoelesJoe]

How the hell does Anthony Volpe keep getting ranked so high on these lists? 21 years old at AAA, hit .236 and K’d in 30% of his ABs with a .717 OPS. And he’s the #11 prospect in all of baseball?

Is the Yankee mystique really that powerful? 

Connor Norby is nine months older than Volpe, but out OPS’d him by 140 points at AA and 400 points at AAA. And didn’t make the Fangraphs list at all. I have to think that if Norby was a Yankee minor leaguer he’d probably be considered the #1 prospect in the game. 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by ShoelesJoe

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

How the hell does Anthony Volpe keep getting ranked so high on these lists? 21 years old at AAA, hit .236 and K’d in 30% of his ABs with a .717 OPS. And he’s the #11 prospect in all of baseball?

Is the Yankee mystique really that powerful? 

Connor Norby is nine months older than Volpe, but out OPS’d him by 140 points at AA and 400 points at AAA. And didn’t make the Fangraphs list at all. I have to think that if Norby was a Yankee minor leaguer he’d probably be considered the #1 prospect in the game. 

 

Few reasons:

1) I believe I saw he ended the year well?

2) Evaluators don’t admit they are wrong this soon.

3) Hype machine

4) Evaluators looking beyond the numbers.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Few reasons:

1) I believe I saw he ended the year well?

2) Evaluators don’t admit they are wrong this soon.

3) Hype machine

4) Evaluators looking beyond the numbers.

Volpe is a better defender, who can play SS.  Not saying he deserves to be ranked 11th, but that’s why he ranks a tier over Norby.  

[btdart20]

7 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

How the hell does Anthony Volpe keep getting ranked so high on these lists? 21 years old at AAA, hit .236 and K’d in 30% of his ABs with a .717 OPS. And he’s the #11 prospect in all of baseball?

Is the Yankee mystique really that powerful? 

Connor Norby is nine months older than Volpe, but out OPS’d him by 140 points at AA and 400 points at AAA. And didn’t make the Fangraphs list at all. I have to think that if Norby was a Yankee minor leaguer he’d probably be considered the #1 prospect in the game. 

 

SSS in AAA.  There's frequently an adjustment period.  2021 at A and A+ ball were strong.  He had a slow start at AA but finished there with 15 HRs and 44 SBs.  I think there's some NYY hype in addition to the tantalizing speed/power combo who can stick at SS defensively.  There was some chatter last summer if Ortiz just had a hot streak or if what we saw was the real Ortiz.  Volpe had a scorcher June/July and an average August.  The rest was pretty bad.

Looking at Longenhagen's 20-80 score for speed (45/40) actually looks low.  I've seen reports his sprint speed is in the 29-30 ft/sec range.  That's getting close to Mateo territory.

[Sports Guy]

Drew Rom but no Cowser?

 

[RZNJ]

Not enough data for Holliday, I assume.   Non Orioles.  Lawlar at #52.  Veen not ranked.

Mayo is #27.    Rom being top 100 is a shocker.   Age vs. level is obviously a factor.

[RZNJ]

similarly. Colton Cowser slipped a lot after a rather weak Triple-A debut; without it, he’d rank 87th overall rather than tumbling to 105. 
 

 

[Frobby]

On 2/23/2023 at 7:36 AM, Frobby said:

Volpe is a better defender, who can play SS.  Not saying he deserves to be ranked 11th, but that’s why he ranks a tier over Norby.  

Notably, Volpe ranks 4th on the ZiPS list, which knows nothing about Yankee hype or bias.   

[Frobby]

I love seeing Rom on this list.  I don’t think he’s actually a top 100 guy, but I do think he’s an interesting prospect who gets a lot of strikeouts without a blazing fastball.   

[btdart20]

Are the ZiPS rankings based on what FG thinks these players will do at the ML level in 2023?  If so, pretty bold takes on guys like Chourio, Espino, Mayo...

[Frobby]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Are the ZiPS rankings based on what FG thinks these players will do at the ML level in 2023?  If so, pretty bold takes on guys like Chourio, Espino, Mayo...

No, ZiPS rankings are just a mathematical algorhythm, not the opinion of Fangraphs or even ZiPS’ creator, Dan Szymborski.  And no, it doesn’t relate to 2023, it’s guesstimating overall long term value.  

[btdart20]

To continue the FG discussion, they posted a "picks to click" about off-the-radar guys who they think will be in the top 100 in 2024.

Picks to Click: Who We Expect to Make the 2024 Top 100 | FanGraphs Baseball

Basallo, Povich, and Norby are listed.  No commentary is provided on any of them though.

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No, ZiPS rankings are just a mathematical algorhythm, not the opinion of Fangraphs or even ZiPS’ creator, Dan Szymborski.  And no, it doesn’t relate to 2023, it’s guesstimating overall long term value.  

Thanks.  I knew it's a program, just wasn't sure about the time horizon.  That makes Rom and the lack of Cowser more interesting.