Colton Cowser 2023

[Can_of_corn]

3 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Would he have done worse than 3-for-18 or 4-for-22 with no power?   

How is he at catching cans of corn?

 

I'm sure he could run me down.

[orioles22]

I love to see these guys doing well and think both Cowser and Ortiz are regulars in 2024, but why do people start with the call them up stuff after a good week and a half. It doesn't matter if they are better than Vavra or anyone else. The idea is for them to be ready when they get to Baltimore. I'd like to see them put together a dominating season at Norfolk.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Alasdaire said:

Criticism of a pick like Cowser or Kjerstad isn't that the player won't be good, it's that the ceiling is probably lower on a college bat that isn't generational like Adley. Jordan Lawler (2021) and Zac Veen (2020) are were both prep players available to us, and they're both at AA now and look great. Robert Hassell (2020) on a similar trajectory. All younger than Cowser.

Ultimately though, if the front office's comparative advantage is in scouting college position players, then I would rather they do that than make bad projections on prep bats. I just hope they're open to pitchers and prep bats and not limiting their options. Especially going forward when we're not going to have our pick of the best college hitter.

 

What’s your definition of great?  Zac Veen currently has a .571 OPS in AA and over 190 PA between this year and last has a .541 OPS in AA.

Robert Hassell had a .608 OPS in AA last year.  I assume he’s on a rehab assignment in low A right now with a .483 OPS.

Both might be great but they are hardly doing great.

Lawlar has a .879 OPS in AA with a .238 average.

 

[Alasdaire]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What’s your definition of great?  Zac Veen currently has a .571 OPS in AA and over 190 PA between this year and last has a .541 OPS in AA.

Robert Hassell had a .608 OPS in AA last year.  I assume he’s on a rehab assignment in low A right now with a .483 OPS.

Both might be great but they are hardly doing great.

Lawlar has a .879 OPS in AA with a .238 average.

 

I actually shouldn't have even mentioned Lawlar/Cowser, because Lawlar wouldn't have signed underslot, and if the underslot approach is what they believe in then fine.

My question during 2020/2021 was whether the front office pigeonholed themselves into not only going for an underslot position player, but also imposing their apparent bias for college bats. Fine if you want to deploy underslot and also view pitchers as too risky. But if you are going to castrate yourself like that, then you shouldn't even further limit yourself by favoring college hitters. This is conjecture of course.

As for 2020, Kjerstad is putting up great numbers this year, and Veen/Hassell aren't producing at that level yet, so I'm admittedly projecting. Pete Crow-Armstrong is another 2020 prep bat, and he has slashed, although in fairness I don't think many scouts could have justified him at 1:2. My point is that Hassell/Veen were in the conversation where we picked, their bonuses were the same/lower than the one we gave out, and they were and (I think) still are more projectable than what we got.

[seak05]

1 hour ago, Alasdaire said:

I actually shouldn't have even mentioned Lawlar/Cowser, because Lawlar wouldn't have signed underslot, and if the underslot approach is what they believe in then fine.

My question during 2020/2021 was whether the front office pigeonholed themselves into not only going for an underslot position player, but also imposing their apparent bias for college bats. Fine if you want to deploy underslot and also view pitchers as too risky. But if you are going to castrate yourself like that, then you shouldn't even further limit yourself by favoring college hitters. This is conjecture of course.

As for 2020, Kjerstad is putting up great numbers this year, and Veen/Hassell aren't producing at that level yet, so I'm admittedly projecting. Pete Crow-Armstrong is another 2020 prep bat, and he has slashed, although in fairness I don't think many scouts could have justified him at 1:2. My point is that Hassell/Veen were in the conversation where we picked, their bonuses were the same/lower than the one we gave out, and they were and (I think) still are more projectable than what we got.

With some more years of data, it seems more like if the Orioles don't believe there is a player "worth" the big bonus, they prefer to go underslot with a safer pick. They took Holiday 1:1. In the case of the 2020/21 drafts it seems more like they didn't really love any of the consensus "top" prospects (and especially in 2020, they appear to have had a good idea of what they were thinking given that the others in the conversation are struggling)

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

I actually shouldn't have even mentioned Lawlar/Cowser, because Lawlar wouldn't have signed underslot, and if the underslot approach is what they believe in then fine.

My question during 2020/2021 was whether the front office pigeonholed themselves into not only going for an underslot position player, but also imposing their apparent bias for college bats. Fine if you want to deploy underslot and also view pitchers as too risky. But if you are going to castrate yourself like that, then you shouldn't even further limit yourself by favoring college hitters. This is conjecture of course.

As for 2020, Kjerstad is putting up great numbers this year, and Veen/Hassell aren't producing at that level yet, so I'm admittedly projecting. Pete Crow-Armstrong is another 2020 prep bat, and he has slashed, although in fairness I don't think many scouts could have justified him at 1:2. My point is that Hassell/Veen were in the conversation where we picked, their bonuses were the same/lower than the one we gave out, and they were and (I think) still are more projectable than what we got.

I like how you ignored the “great” comment you made when RZNJ called you out for being totally wrong. You’re really castrating yourself when you are wrong on the facts and then respond with more hot air. 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Ohfan67

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I like how you ignored the “great” comment you made when RZNJ called you out for being totally wrong. You’re really castrating yourself when you are wrong on the facts and then respond with more hot air. 

The facts are that Veen/Hassell/Lawlar are more highly rated than Kjerstad/Cowser according to pretty much every single professional evaluator. Brace yourself for this one, but comparing the slash lines of minor league players who are in different leagues and different ages is not dispositive as to how "great" they project to be.

[Alasdaire]

53 minutes ago, seak05 said:

With some more years of data, it seems more like if the Orioles don't believe there is a player "worth" the big bonus, they prefer to go underslot with a safer pick. They took Holiday 1:1. In the case of the 2020/21 drafts it seems more like they didn't really love any of the consensus "top" prospects (and especially in 2020, they appear to have had a good idea of what they were thinking given that the others in the conversation are struggling)

That could be a more accurate way of putting it. It's hard for me to give them "credit" for taking a chance on a high school hitter last year though. Taking Brooks Lee/Jacob Berry over Holliday/Jones/Johnson would have been out of pocket. Kudos to them for taking Holliday though. I think it would have been easier to go with either Jones or Johnson.

Not picking on the O's because the approach you're referring to re. going underslot if you can't separate out the players seems to be what the Pirates did at 1:1 in 2021. Maybe they couldn't confidently project either Mayer or Lawlar, so they just defaulted to the college catcher in Davis and then spent on prep players later. It all comes down to whether those later picks you couldn't have gotten otherwise pan out.

[seak05]

The 2020 draft was its own unique situation. No one was able to scout any of the HS talent as seniors, and they had very small sample size on the Juniors. Think about how different the 2022 draft would have looked if the spring season hadn't happened. Holliday absolutely wouldn't have gone 1:1 to start. 

Cowser is in the same general part of the MLB prospect rankings as Veen and Hassell. He's ahead of Davis, Leiter and Jobe who went before him. Lawlar might have been nice, but I don't think it's like Cowser looks out of line with those drafter around him. 

[DirtyBird]

Why ya’ll dummies talking about the draft on other team’s prospects in this tread?

[Ohfan67]

2 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

The facts are that Veen/Hassell/Lawlar are more highly rated than Kjerstad/Cowser according to pretty much every single professional evaluator. Brace yourself for this one, but comparing the slash lines of minor league players who are in different leagues and different ages is not dispositive as to how "great" they project to be.

Brace yourself for this: you were the one who said they were doing great.  You referenced their performance. Are they doing great or not? 

[Alasdaire]

19 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Brace yourself for this: you were the one who said they were doing great.  You referenced their performance. Are they doing great or not? 

I said they look great. In the context of a retrospective conversation about the draft, I meant that they've performed well enough to justifiably continue to project the skillsets they had back then. No idea why you're interjecting with an angry misconstruction. I'm glad that Colton/Heston are slashing well and hope they go on to be worthy of the draft slots.

[maybenxtyr]

I've been sleeping on Cowser. I knew he had potential but he was always someone that I would have sacrificed in a trade. Patience and power are 2 pretty good attributes.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I've been sleeping on Cowser. I knew he had potential but he was always someone that I would have sacrificed in a trade. Patience and power are 2 pretty good attributes.

He’s still kind of a question mark to me.  When he has hiccups, he looks pretty lost at the plate.  When he’s hot, he looks unstoppable.   He tends to start slow and heat up.   I hope he’s able to put together a prolonged hot stretch now and make his case for a promotion.  

One good thing so far is that in a very SSS (16 PA) he’s hitting LHP much better so far this year.  
 

[RZNJ]

On 4/23/2023 at 3:31 PM, Alasdaire said:

I actually shouldn't have even mentioned Lawlar/Cowser, because Lawlar wouldn't have signed underslot, and if the underslot approach is what they believe in then fine.

My question during 2020/2021 was whether the front office pigeonholed themselves into not only going for an underslot position player, but also imposing their apparent bias for college bats. Fine if you want to deploy underslot and also view pitchers as too risky. But if you are going to castrate yourself like that, then you shouldn't even further limit yourself by favoring college hitters. This is conjecture of course.

As for 2020, Kjerstad is putting up great numbers this year, and Veen/Hassell aren't producing at that level yet, so I'm admittedly projecting. Pete Crow-Armstrong is another 2020 prep bat, and he has slashed, although in fairness I don't think many scouts could have justified him at 1:2. My point is that Hassell/Veen were in the conversation where we picked, their bonuses were the same/lower than the one we gave out, and they were and (I think) still are more projectable than what we got.

I think a fair question is:

1. Would the Orioles trade Kjerstad for Veen or Hassell straight up today.

2. Would the Orioles trade Cowser straight up for Lawlar today?

I think the answer to #1 is a no.  Neither Hassell or Veen has shown any real power and neither has conquered AA but time and hope is still on their side.

I think the answer to #2 is murkier than most people think.