Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Es4M11 said:

As of now, the only prospect I'm really looking to trade is Norby. 

I guess this is as good of a place as any to go on the record of saying, IMO, Norby might just be the best bat in our system when it's all said and done. I'm finding a spot for him. I think he might be our most under rated prospect.

 

[LTO's]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well Not saying these trades have to be made right now but he just made 2 trades in the middle of a contending season because he felt the value of his vet players was too much to pass up.

Seemed like you were talking about trading those guys now. I would like to see guys like Cowser, Norby, Ortiz, Westburg. Mayo etc. phased in slowly with the backing of established big league vets with somewhat established floors. IMO none of them are really close to the level of prospect that Gunnar or Adley were and I don't think they can be trusted to handle starting roles right now. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I guess this is as good of a place as any to go on the record of saying, IMO, Norby might just be the best bat in our system when it's all said and done. I'm finding a spot for him. I think he might be our most under rated prospect.

 

Does that include Gunnar?

[CaptDbog]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You may or may not know that rWAR (or bWAR) is not the sum of oWAR + dWAR.  There’s a positional adjustment made in both oWAR and dWAR that is double counted if you simply add them.  That’s why last year Mullins had 3.3 oWAR and 1.0 dWAR, but only 3.8 rWAR total.   

As I said, I’ve been studying aging effects in this thead.   It’s well known that the average player peaks at about 27, but I’m looking at how wide the variances are, etc.   Of the 26 players I looked at who debuted in 2006 and managed to accumulate 10+ rWAR in their career, just over half (14/26) managed to have a 3 WAR season in their age 30 season or later.  9 did it at 31 or later, 6 did it at 32 or later.  So it’s not impossible, but it’s difficult.  A big question is how quickly Mullins will lose speed.  His average sprint speed has dropped every year, but is still well above average and hasn’t dropped precipitously yet.   
 

Thanks for educating me.  This is part of the reason why I joined the board. I haven't read your thread but will today.  I appreciate your work and research.   

[CaptDbog]

49 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It's not wrong.  What trade has Elias made that would be comparable with trading Mullins, Santander, Hays, Urias etc. right now? 

I don't know if it is comparable but Elias did trade Jose Iglesias, Jorge Lopez, and Alex Cobb.  He has for sure traded plenty of MLB players. 

[Sports Guy]

38 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Seemed like you were talking about trading those guys now. I would like to see guys like Cowser, Norby, Ortiz, Westburg. Mayo etc. phased in slowly with the backing of established big league vets with somewhat established floors. IMO none of them are really close to the level of prospect that Gunnar or Adley were and I don't think they can be trusted to handle starting roles right now. 

You can trade some of them if you want. Hays and Mateo could go tomorrow and we would be fine. Replacing some of the other guys would be a little more challenging with so many options now off the table.

But again, Elias just did this so unless you are bashing him for doing that in the midst of a contending season, I’m not sure why you think that hasn’t been his focus and why it would be an issue to do it now.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, CaptDbog said:

I don't know if it is comparable but Elias did trade Jose Iglesias, Jorge Lopez, and Alex Cobb.  He has for sure traded plenty of MLB players. 

And Bundy and Mancini and Lopez.

[Sports Guy]

43 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I guess this is as good of a place as any to go on the record of saying, IMO, Norby might just be the best bat in our system when it's all said and done. I'm finding a spot for him. I think he might be our most under rated prospect.

 

He is another guy in the mix for an OF spot imo.

Saw a prospect guy the other day on Twitter say he just feels Norby is going to be a solid ML regular. Loves baseball, right attitude, etc…just that type of guy who you feel definitely succeeds.

[LTO's]

22 minutes ago, CaptDbog said:

I don't know if it is comparable but Elias did trade Jose Iglesias, Jorge Lopez, and Alex Cobb.  He has for sure traded plenty of MLB players. 

 

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And Bundy and Mancini and Lopez.

None of these are comparable to the players being discussed now. Lopez would be the closest but he's also a reliever. He had his eventual replacement show he was capable at the big league level which is what I'm talking about. The prospects need to be phased in and show they are better than the vets we have now. If they aren't, and you traded your big leaguers away with years of control left, that is worse than keeping them as starters for a half year-year too long. 

[LookinUp]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does that include Gunnar?

No, but I honestly wasn't even thinking of Gunnar as a prospect. His speed, power and left handedness in Oriole Park give him an edge, but I think Norby might be a higher average guy with a similar OBP, but certainly less value overall (especially when considering defense).

[LTO's]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But again, Elias just did this so unless you are bashing him for doing that in the midst of a contending season, I’m not sure why you think that hasn’t been his focus and why it would be an issue to do it now.

I don't think trading position players with multiple years of control is the focus, no.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, LTO's said:

 

None of these are comparable to the players being discussed now. Lopez would be the closest but he's also a reliever. He had his eventual replacement show he was capable at the big league level which is what I'm talking about. The prospects need to be phased in and show they are better than the vets we have now. If they aren't, and you traded your big leaguers away with years of control left, that is worse than keeping them as starters for a half year-year too long. 

Lol..of course they are comparable to at least some of the guys being discussed. They are role player type players, just as the guys being discussed now are.

Outside of Mullins, we aren’t talking about true core players here. 

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

This was a good article, it illustrated how deep the system is, especially from an offensive perspective and how we're going to eventually need to part with some of these guys in a trade to bring in someone like Corbin Burnes.

I hope Mayo mashes and makes Mountcastle expendable.

I agree to some extent that we will eventually have to trade for a big boy SP. I think we all underrate Mountcastle a bit. He’s a part of our youth movement. He’s not much older that Adley and Westburg. 
 

In a perfect world we could trade Mateo and Urias, all while still being in the playoff hunt this trade deadline. At this point, maybe we have to deal them for the best package of lower level minors prospects and then trade some of our upper level prospects for a TOR SP. 
 

Mateo to the LAD makes a ton of sense, but there’s a thread for that. 
 

This is truly a fun time to be an O’s fan, and we all deserve it. 

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol..of course they are comparable to at least some of the guys being discussed. They are role player type players, just as the guys being discussed now are.

Outside of Mullins, we aren’t talking about true core players here. 

The players you mentioned were on an expiring contract on terrible teams. Lopez had a year left and was on a good team so that's why I said he was the most comparable. Someone like Austin Hays or Ramon Urias might be a role player but they aren't in a hurry to trade them clearly because they aren't sure the 50-55FVish prospects they have below him are going to be better in the short term. I don't understand what you aren't getting? If Cowser or Stowers or Vavra came up last year and had a high level of success, I think discussing trading Santander or Hays or Urias would have more merit. There's still a high degree of uncertainty with those players and prospect volatility is a real thing. That's why I don't think anyone should be stressing out about them not trading these "role players" right away. 

[LookinUp]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lol..of course they are comparable to at least some of the guys being discussed. They are role player type players, just as the guys being discussed now are.

Outside of Mullins, we aren’t talking about true core players here. 

Well, I think Santander might make a case that he's worthy of paying. That doesn't necessarily mean that the O's, with a system rich in OF prospects that (in theory) are performing this year, should do it. However I wouldn't be shocked if he solidifies his place among the really good (not amazing) hitters in baseball this year and thus in a substantially different category than Urias, Mateo, Vavra, etc.