Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise

[Jagwar]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I like prospects, too, but I think people tend to overrate their chances of success a lot of times.   Urias, Mateo and Mountcastle all debuted in 2020.   Know where they rank in rWAR among position players who debuted that year? 6th, 12th and 13th.  Hays ranks 16th among players who debuted in 2017, despite the fact that he was called up prematurely and was hurt a lot for a couple of years after that.  The odds that any four of our position player prospects (excluding Gunnar) will do as well or better are not as high as you think.  

I know it's just anecdotal, but I recall Cal coming up in 1981 and not looking like a guy ready to hit ML pitching. SSS but he went 5 for 39 with no extra base hits, slashing 128/150/128/278. He obviously adjusted in 1982 and a HOF career ensued.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

I know it's just anecdotal, but I recall Cal coming up in 1981 and not looking like a guy ready to hit ML pitching. SSS but he went 5 for 39 with no extra base hits, slashing 128/150/128/278. He obviously adjusted in 1982 and a HOF career ensued.  

Look at Trout’s debut.   

[DrungoHazewood]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just based on the study I’ve started of players who accumulate 10+ rWAR in their careers, I’d say expecting 3.5 - 5.0 rWAR from Mullins in each of the next 4-5 years is extremely optimistic.  It’s not impossible, but not likely.   Honestly if he accumulates another 9 WAR in his career (he’s at 9.2 now), he’s probably beating the odds.  

Orioles who had between 8.2 and 10.2 rWAR through age 27 include Chris Davis, Rich Dauer, Curt Blefary, Jim Gentile and Gus Triandos.  Davis had 3.3 the rest of his career, although with two good years and several trainwrecks. Dauer 5.7 total from 28-on. Blefary 0.3. Gentile 7.4. Triandos 4.4. I don't think that tells us a whole lot besides that players of Mullins' general quality and age aren't guaranteed to be really productive going forward.

Other players with 8.2-10.2 WAR through 27 include Moises Alou, Luis Polonia, Aubrey Huff, Corey Patterson, Dexter Fowler, Joe Carter, Phil Bradley, Andre Thornton, Dan Ford, Vince Coleman. You can read pretty much anything you want into that list.

[DrungoHazewood]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Look at Trout’s debut.   

Trout was 19. When Henderson was that age he'd yet to have an at bat above Rookie ball. If you can play in the majors at 19 and not look totally overmatched that's a pretty good indication that you're going to have a long, successful career. I'd guess that the average debut age of a Hall of Famer is 21 or 22.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Trout was 19. When Henderson was that age he'd yet to have an at bat above Rookie ball. If you can play in the majors at 19 and not look totally overmatched that's a pretty good indication that you're going to have a long, successful career. I'd guess that the average debut age of a Hall of Famer is 21 or 22.

Trout's rWAR/162 was 2 at age 19.  It isn't as if he was hurting the team.

[justD]

I haven't had time to read through the article nor the entire thread, so take this with that grain of salt... 

In 2017, at the Trade Deadline at the end of the season (August 31), the Astros felt secure enough in a possible postseason berth that they traded for Justin Verlander in exchange for Franklin Perez, Jake Rogers and Daz Cameron. 

I've believed for some time that our big trade for a starting pitcher would happen in much the same way, both in terms of  timing as well as using farm system depth rather than veterans.  I feel Elias has been planning it this way all along.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, justD said:

I haven't had time to read through the article nor the entire thread, so take this with that grain of salt... 

In 2017, at the Trade Deadline at the end of the season (August 31), the Astros felt secure enough in a possible postseason berth that they traded for Justin Verlander in exchange for Franklin Perez, Jake Rogers and Daz Cameron. 

I've believed for some time that our big trade for a starting pitcher would happen in much the same way, both in terms of  timing as well as using farm system depth rather than veterans.  I feel Elias has been planning it this way all along.

The risk with that plan is that a Justin Verlander isn't sitting there every trade deadline.

 

[HakunaSakata]

20 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I'll tell you how I would aim to escalate the team's rise... start adding pitchers to the organization.

IMO it's the Achilles heel of the farm system. We have positional prospects out the wazoo. But outside of GRod and Hall (and maybe Povich now), who do we have that is really a prime prospect? Elias needs to address this big time. 

Agree with this, but with one caveat. I'm fine with them taking a position player heavy approach to player development as long as they use some of those resources to trade for pitching OR open up the wallet and sign some notable FA pitchers. Since the team (up to this point) has done neither of these things I think it's fair to criticize their approach a bit. Especially if pitching turns out to be their Achilles heel this season. 

People can argue all day out how much they like our young pitchers, but the reality is that excluding Rodriguez the majority of them have low ceilings and even lower floors. I've soured on Hall quite a bit too because he's shown no signs of being able to get his walks under control and apparently the Orioles have too since he's not even being considered for a rotation spot. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Agree with this, but with one caveat. I'm fine with them taking a position player heavy approach to player development as long as they use some of those resources to trade for pitching OR open up the wallet and sign some notable FA pitchers. Since the team (up to this point) has done neither of these things I think it's fair to criticize their approach a bit. Especially if pitching turns out to be their Achilles heel this season. 

People can argue all day out how much they like our young pitchers, but the reality is that excluding Rodriguez the majority of them have low ceilings and even lower floors. I've soured on Hall quite a bit too because he's shown no signs of being able to get his walks under control and apparently the Orioles have too since he's not even being considered for a rotation spot. 

Source please.

I know about the back issue is this something else?

Edited March 3, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Agree with this, but with one caveat. I'm fine with them taking a position player heavy approach to player development as long as they use some of those resources to trade for pitching OR open up the wallet and sign some notable FA pitchers. Since the team (up to this point) has done neither of these things I think it's fair to criticize their approach a bit. Especially if pitching turns out to be their Achilles heel this season. 

People can argue all day out how much they like our young pitchers, but the reality is that excluding Rodriguez the majority of them have low ceilings and even lower floors. I've soured on Hall quite a bit too because he's shown no signs of being able to get his walks under control and apparently the Orioles have too since he's not even being considered for a rotation spot. 

There’s no evidence at all that they’ve soured on Hall as a starter as you have.   He was held back because of lower back discomfort.  He was going to get starter innings in ST but everyone knew it was going to be difficult for him to nail down a spot out of ST.

[Sports Guy]

People writing off Hall right now look so foolish to me.

Im not saying he won’t ultimately end up in the pen and maybe that’s the most likely outcome but we saw, just last year, a guy who most were convinced was going to be a reliever (Bradish) turn himself into a good starter.  We saw Watkins become serviceable. We saw Kremer get better. Tyler Wells turned himself into a decent starter.

The point is, none of those guys have the talent of Hall and all of them have had their own performance issues and the team was able to turn them around.

Lets give Hall some more time, be healthy, etc…and then we can see where he is.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People writing off Hall right now look so foolish to me.

Im not saying he won’t ultimately end up in the pen and maybe that’s the most likely outcome but we saw, just last year, a guy who most were convinced was going to be a reliever (Bradish) turn himself into a good starter.  We saw Watkins become serviceable. We saw Kremer get better. Tyler Wells turned himself into a decent starter.

The point is, none of those guys have the talent of Hall and all of them have had their own performance issues and the team was able to turn them around.

Lets give Hall some more time, be healthy, etc…and then we can see where he is.

I certainly wouldn't write him off. But I sort of get those who are frustrated by him. The guy just didn't really have a great year at AAA last year. And the ghost of Tanner Scott still haunts around here. But I would agree that he's going to impact this team in a big way this year at some point. I think he has a much higher chance of figuring it out than Scott ever did. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Source please.

I know about the back issue is this something else?

I re-read the quote and it's related to the back issue (not his ability). So take those words as just my opinion (not fact). 

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde says D.L. Hall probably won’t be stretched out enough to be a starter out of spring training. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

There’s no evidence at all that they’ve soured on Hall as a starter as you have.   He was held back because of lower back discomfort.  He was going to get starter innings in ST but everyone knew it was going to be difficult for him to nail down a spot out of ST.

Yes, you are correct. I re-read the quote and it specifically relates to his health. That said, I'm finding it very hard to see a path to success for Hall as a MLB starting pitcher if he isn't able to get his walks under control. And he's show absolutely no evidence of being able to consistently do that in his minor league career. That's why I'm starting to think he might profile more as a high leverage RP. 

For context, here are Halls minor league walk rates by year. To put things in perspective, Dylan Cease, who led MLB in walks last season, had a 4.32 walk rate last season. 

2017 - 8.7
2018 - 4.0
2019 - 6.0
2021 - 4.5
2022 - 7.3

[wildcard]

January 10, 1991 the O's tried to make an impact trade  by acquiring Glenn Davis from the Astros for three young players Curt Schilling, Steve Finley  and Pete Harnish.  Worst trade the O's ever made.

Trading young talent for a veteran does not always work out.

I think the O's have the talent now to have a playoff, maybe even a WS pitching staff.  GRod will probably be an ace in time.  Bradish, Kremer, Hall, Wells are all young starter talents.   Means is an All Star starter that is projected to be back in July. Gibson is a stop gap.   Irvin is TBD.   Voth can be a starter or a reliever.

I'd rather the O's keep their best young talent  and trade the rest for prospects as they are needed.  Santander is going getting closer to FA and  Stowers or Kjerstad are progressing to be his replacement at some point.    Frazier and Gibson are stop gaps on one year contracts that may be traded for prospects at the deadline depending on how the O's young players progress.  

This is the same approach Elias has been using up until now with the trades of Mancini,  Lopez and Givens.

IMO there is too much probability of a swing and miss trading a bunch of good prospects of a veteran.  Keep the O's best young talent.

   

Edited March 3, 2023 by wildcard