Fangraphs positional power rankings

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t disagree but my expectation is that he is a 3.5+ WAR guy in 2023.

Fangraphs credits him with 2.1 fWAR at 3B and 1.7 at SS, so that’s 3.8 so far (it’s possible they might have him dabbling at DH once in a while, we’ll see).  At SS, the O’s ranked 18th at 3.4 fWAR, with Mateo and Henderson splitting time roughly 60/40.  Fangraphs comments:

“This playing time projection is the numerical equivalent of throwing your hands up in the air. Henderson looks bound for stardom, be it at third or shortstop, but Mateo is still holding on to the position for now after a solid defensive year established him as the everyday starter. His offensive numbers are downright ugly – that .284 projected wOBA is the second-lowest for anyone in this article with 100 or more PAs – but you can get away with that kind of bat at shortstop if your glove is transcendent.

“In 2022, Mateo’s was, but he’d never flashed that level of defense before, so Orioles talent evaluators will have their work cut out for them early in the year. Henderson will likely start the season at third base, but if Mateo’s defense looks shaky, the team should make the switch sooner rather than later. Those offensive numbers next to Henderson’s name are no joke — think Corey Seager, if you’re looking for a parallel as an offense-first lefty shortstop. 2023 is just the start of Baltimore’s plan for contention, but what they do at shortstop will have ramifications for both this year and the future.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-shortstop/

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by Frobby

[SpOkane]

Prospects Live has their first scouting book out and Gunnar is on the cover.  Please be no jinx. Please be no jinx.

Prospects Live

[Frobby]

18th ranked in LF at 2.1 fWAR, 1.7 of which comes from Hays in about 63% of the playing time there.  

“Austin Hays has been a solidly average corner outfielder for the O’s the last two years, but he feels more like a caretaker of the position rather than its long-term owner. Surviving the prospect gauntlet of Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Dylan Beavers will likely prove challenging for Hays, who is middling across the board without any one standout skill that would help ensure his playing time. Plus, the Orioles have five middle infield prospects with a Future Value of 45 or better, and it’s a good bet that at least a few of them end up in the outfield. 

“Hays has the job for now, but if Cowser avenges his poor month in Triple-A, the former may start to shift to more of a fourth-outfielder role as early as this season. Kyle Stowers will likely get some time in the field and the O’s have consistently hyped Adam Frazier’s versatility.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-left-field/

[btdart20]

[btdart20]

CF and RF rankings are published.

2023 Positional Power Rankings: Center Field | FanGraphs Baseball 

Mullins, now 28 and with two more seasons of team control on his ledger, could be to the Orioles what Jose Altuve was to the Astros in 2015: the vanguard of the rebuild.

Mullins’ actual offensive numbers have outstripped his expected statistics the past two seasons, but that’s the only real downside for a player who’s developed into just the kind of dependable all-around player who forms the core of a winning team.

2023 Positional Power Rankings: Right Field | FanGraphs Baseball - 

They've got Santander tabbed for RF instead of Stowers.

Santander enjoyed a nice breakout in his age-27 season, spending the full campaign in the majors for the first time, bashing 33 homers, and hitting .240/.318/.455 (120 wRC+) with 2.5 WAR. He showed better plate discipline, and dramatically improved his performance against curves, sliders and changeups, cutting his strikeout rate from 23.1% to 18.9% while improving his walk rate from 5.3% to 8.5% and his barrel rate from 8.4% to 11.6%. He’s not exactly a high-OBP guy, but the projections suggest he can maintain this level.

 

[Frobby]

What’s interesting so far is that, aside from catcher, the O’s are neither elite nor terrible at any position.   

C - 2 (5.5 fWAR)

1B - 15 (2.5)

2B - 20 (2.8)

3B - 10 (3.9)

SS - 18 (3.4)

LF - 20 (2.1)

CF - 11 (3.7)

RF - 15 (2.7)

Still waiting on DH, and of course, SP and RP where we’ll probably be ranked low.  But the position player profile is pretty decent, though not outstanding.  
 

[Frobby]

O’s ranked 18th at DH with 1.6 fWAR, with most PA coming from Stowers, Santander and Rutschman.  That brings projected position player WAR to 28.2, compared to 18.9 actual last year.  That would be a nice gain!

“The Baltimore Orioles have some of the most promising young talent in the game, and it extends well beyond ballyhooed phenoms like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez. Notable among the less-hyped is Stanford product Kyle Stowers, who debuted last season at age 24 and homered three times while slashing .253/.306/.418 over 98 plate appearances. As modest as those get-your-feet-wet numbers are, it bears noting that he also put up a 130 wRC+ with 19 home runs in Triple-A, and he’d raked at Double-A in 2021. The 2019 second-rounder quietly continues to square up baseballs.

“Anthony Santander has largely flown under the radar — at least on a national level — for much the same reason: he doesn’t get hyped as a big part of Baltimore’s future. But he arguably should. The 28-year-old switch-hitter produced a team-best 33 big flies last year, and ZiPS projects him to go deep 29 times with a 124 wRC+ in the coming season. A 2016 Rule-5 acquisition from Cleveland who was never viewed as a top prospect — even when the Orioles farm was far less formidable — Santander has developed into an offensive force.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-designated-hitter/

 

[ChuckS]

On 3/24/2023 at 10:49 AM, Frobby said:

What’s interesting so far is that, aside from catcher, the O’s are neither elite nor terrible at any position.   

C - 2 (5.5 fWAR)

1B - 15 (2.5)

2B - 20 (2.8)

3B - 10 (3.9)

SS - 18 (3.4)

LF - 20 (2.1)

CF - 11 (3.7)

RF - 15 (2.7)

Still waiting on DH, and of course, SP and RP where we’ll probably be ranked low.  But the position player profile is pretty decent, though not outstanding.  
 

It's good to see when you consider we were a below average offensive club last year and given the relative youthfulness at most positions, not hard to imagine a lot of our players exceeding these expectations. 

Edited March 27, 2023 by ChuckS

[Frobby]

Just to finish this off, the O’s were ranked 21st in the bullpen (2.2 fWAR) and 28th in the rotation (7.5 fWAR).  So that’s 37.9 rWAR, which in theory translates to 84-85 wins.  That’s a bit odd considering that Fangraphs projects the O’s at 78-84.    

[CaptainRedbeard]

 

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Just to finish this off, the O’s were ranked 21st in the bullpen (2.2 fWAR) and 28th in the rotation (7.5 fWAR).  So that’s 37.9 rWAR, which in theory translates to 84-85 wins.  That’s a bit odd considering that Fangraphs projects the O’s at 78-84.    

The rankings of all the teams based on the depth charts are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

The depth charts project all of the teams across the league to have more fWAR than will actually accrue in a season, so you can’t just add the depth charts fWAR to the replacement level and get the projected record. The Orioles are in the bottom half of the depth charts, which is why they come out to below .500. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The depth charts project all of the teams across the league to have more fWAR than will actually accrue in a season

Why is that?

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Why is that?

The figures don't lie but liars figure!  sorry, couldn't help myself.

[CaptainRedbeard]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Why is that?

They explained it in one of the articles as projections were coming out this year but I can’t for the life of me locate it again. I believe the answer is that they can’t predict injuries - historical durability is factored into playing time projections, but those are generally small differences. There will always be some amount of major injuries over the course of the season. So all the players in the league project to accrue more WAR than they will in actuality, because some amount of that WAR will be lost due to injuries and they can’t predict the specific players where that will come from. 

[waroriole]

On 3/24/2023 at 10:49 AM, Frobby said:

What’s interesting so far is that, aside from catcher, the O’s are neither elite nor terrible at any position.   

C - 2 (5.5 fWAR)

1B - 15 (2.5)

2B - 20 (2.8)

3B - 10 (3.9)

SS - 18 (3.4)

LF - 20 (2.1)

CF - 11 (3.7)

RF - 15 (2.7)

Still waiting on DH, and of course, SP and RP where we’ll probably be ranked low.  But the position player profile is pretty decent, though not outstanding.  
 

We’re below average at 2B and LF. And could be at either SS or 3B. 

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, waroriole said:

We’re below average at 2B and LF. And could be at either SS or 3B. 

Below average, yes.  Terrible, no.