Cole Irvin 2023

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

It's the young guys getting more experience- and that includes guys we don't consider young but actually still are, namely Hays and Mountcastle.

I think Frazier/Gibson is a fairly notable upgrage over Lyles/Odor.

I think Grayson being in the rotation can be a big upgrade.

Now, it comes down to the pitching.  If Kremer, Bradish, and Voth just revert to pumpkins this year I think we'll be hard pressed to match last year's win total.  But I still feel much better about the overall roster this year than last.

Gibson is probably better than Lyles but he will be hard pressed to be much better than Lyles was in 2022, at least for it to make any real difference in the win column.

 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Grayson Rodriguez needs more than 9 ML innings before I'm going to say he can't be an ace.  I'd like to see Bradish pitch more than 1 1/3 innings this year before I say he can't be a successful ML pitcher.

Is that hope?  Maybe.  Is it preposterous?  I don't think so.

Ok. I got it now! Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish are our top 2 pitchers in a big must have regular season series or playoff series. 
 

I will say this I appreciate you offering these clarifying details. 
 

Now, if we slightly remove the undying hope and orange tinted glasses. Would you favor us given who are opponents would bring to the hill on those days. We have already seen on multiple occasions now, that we are going to struggle to score if it’s that Yankees and they bring Cortez to the hill.

Would you admit that we would be the serious underdog on those days?

All I’m saying is that it does not need to be that way anymore. We have the perfect conditions to be serious players now. Extremely low payroll and loads of young talent in excess.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gibson is probably better than Lyles but he will be hard pressed to be much better than Lyles was in 2022, at least for it to make any real difference in the win column.

 

He looks a lot better than Lyles to my eye.

[Pickles]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Ok. I got it now! Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish are our top 2 pitchers in a big must have regular season series or playoff series. 
 

I will say this I appreciate you offering these clarifying details. 
 

Now, if we slightly remove the undying hope and orange tinted glasses. Would you favor us given who are opponents would bring to the hill on those days. We have already seen on multiple occasions now, that we are going to struggle to score if it’s that Yankees and they bring Cortez to the hill.

Would you admit that we would be the serious underdog on those days?

All I’m saying is that it does not need to be that way anymore. We have the perfect conditions to be serious players now. Extremely low payroll and loads of young talent in excess.

So who are they going to acquire on April 14th that will make the difference since it doesn't have to be this way now?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That would be as silly a prediction as locking them in at 82 wins this year because of their 7-6 start.  Which was my point.

This team and franchise is on the upswing.  There's no doubt about that.

If they don't improve the pitching I think one can doubt they will be more than .500.

I think it is very likely they end up with closer to 82 wins than 113.

I don't think the two predictions are anywhere near the same level of silly.

How is it silly to say a team that was .500 last season and is giving up as many runs as they are scoring will end up around .500 again?

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Today?  Of course not.

This is a process.  It takes time.

I don’t understand this thinking. So in the process our guys grow and get better tans theirs stay the same or get worse?

Our competitors are trying just as hard as we are and have their own analytics teams and computer programs that are just as good as ours are. Top talent is necessary to win at the highest levels.

We have it at many positions in the field for the most part. But we are sorely lacking it in the pitching department. I would like my chances for success to be dependent on more than just luck and hope.

Hope is great for church, not so much on a baseball diamond.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He looks a lot better than Lyles to my eye.

That’s fine but his career says he’s as likely to have a 5+ ERA as he is to have a sub 5 ERA. 
 

Lyles was better than expected last year. Gibson can be better but it’s hardly a forgone conclusion and the difference isn’t likely to be all that noticeable.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If they don't improve the pitching I think one can doubt they will be more than .500.

I think it is very likely they end up with closer to 82 wins than 113.

I don't think the two predictions are anywhere near the same level of silly.

How is it silly to say a team that was .500 last season and is giving up as many runs as they are scoring will end up around .500 again?

Yes, even if the O's are a .500ish team this year the trajectory of the team is still on the upswing.  

Would you feel better predicting 90 wins in 2024, if they had won 70 games in 2022 and 80 games in 2023?

 

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine but his career says he’s as likely to have a 5+ ERA as he is to have a sub 5 ERA. 
 

Lyles was better than expected last year. Gibson can be better but it’s hardly a forgone conclusion and the difference isn’t likely to be all that noticeable.

All of this is true.

He just looks better than I thought he would, and I feel better about him going forward than I would have six weeks ago.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

The obvious is that Oakland is a pitchers ballpark.  The ball doesn’t carry at night and you’ve got all of that foul territory to have foul pops caught that would be in the stands of any other ballpark.

OPACY is also a pitchers ballpark, at least for RHB's. Irvin has had two starts at home and looked just as bad as in Boston. I think Irvin will pitch for us again and do well but Watkins is a better option right now. That is the good thing about depth. 

[Sports Guy]

It’s a process and yet we keep our guys down and block them for mediocrity.

Sometimes I wonder if the farm ranking is more valuable to Elias than winning at the ML level. He even had John Angelos talking about it in the offseason and that guy knows nothing.

[EdwinRip]

I think the team is where it needs to be.  Take a look at Houston’s record over the years. It’s not about this year.  It’s about the next 10 years.  However, if the team isn’t able to take the next step next year, that will be disappointing. I am perfectly happy with around .500 this year if we are perennial contenders for the next 10 years.  

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t understand this thinking. So in the process our guys grow and get better tans theirs stay the same or get worse?

Our competitors are trying just as hard as we are and have their own analytics teams and computer programs that are just as good as ours are. Top talent is necessary to win at the highest levels.

We have it at many positions in the field for the most part. But we are sorely lacking it in the pitching department. I would like my chances for success to be dependent on more than just luck and hope.

Hope is great for church, not so much on a baseball diamond.

Well, when our guys are top prospects and 22 years old, yes, as a matter of fact, and not hope, they should get better and grow.

And when their guys are 31 years old, yes, as a matter of fact, and not hope, they will get worse.

To really put the cherry on top, they're probably going to have to go outside of the organization for a pitching acquisition or two.  Everybody knows this.  It's not a secret.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

OPACY is also a pitchers ballpark, at least for RHB's. Irvin has had two starts at home and looked just as bad as in Boston. I think Irvin will pitch for us again and do well but Watkins is a better option right now. That is the good thing about depth. 

It was more of a pitchers park for lefties than righties in 2022 with the exception being homers.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Yes, even if the O's are a .500ish team this year the trajectory of the team is still on the upswing.  

Would you feel better predicting 90 wins in 2024, if they had won 70 games in 2022 and 80 games in 2023?

 

There is no projected impact pitching in the minors that we haven't seen yet.  We haven't seen our GM/Owner show that are willing to bring in an impact arm.

Unless that changes the trajectory stays pretty much at .500.

Every season that goes by is another year of the Adley clock ticking away.

 

As for your question...I wouldn't care, I'd look at the talent on the team.