Adam Frazier 2023

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I like Frazier better as a lefty PH. I like Mateo as a pinch runner and defense guy. I could see both guys having a role. If forced to choose that's a tough one but Mateo has team control and could continue to help us in '24. 

I would be pretty shocked if Mateo was here next year, unless he shows he can play multiple positions.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What is he going to do for us as an outfielder? Next season both Cowser and Kjerstad will have joined the club by then and the same crowding will be in the outfield that exists in the infield. 

IMO this is a good problem to have because cream always rises to the top. Unless they want to keep Mateo as a place holder for Jackson Holliday to begin next year, he really has no place on the team. With all the talent that way have and are organically adding, he really doesn’t have a place here much longer. He’s simply not good enough.

I stumbled understanding what they meant at first myself.

I think that they are saying if he can also play a decent outfielder he would have value as a pinch runner/super utility player.  One guy that you can plug into six defensive positions.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I stumbled understanding what they meant at first myself.

I think that they are saying if he can also play a decent outfielder he would have value as a pinch runner/super utility player.  One guy that you can plug into six defensive positions.

I don’t know if that really has too much value with the type of roster that we are building going forward. 

Next year we will have at least Gunnar and Westburg holding down 2 infield spots with maybe Urias as back up? Right now we don’t have a 1B for next year to get the bulk of the playing time, but maybe Mayo fills that void at some point next year?

In the outfield we have Hays, Mullins, Santander, Cowser, Kjerstad and McKenna. Even if Santander rotates between DH/1B, that leaves 5 for 3 positions. And most of these guys mentioned are very good players if not franchise cornerstones, they will be getting the bulk of the reps at those positions. I don’t see much of a place for Mateo once Holliday arrives. I guess as the 26th man, late inning lunch runner, for whatever that’s worth?

He’s not going to be a late inning defensive replacement because SS is too important of a position to play a bad player there defensively to begin with and Holliday and/or Henderson don’t need someone to replace them defensively.

[Frobby]

On 6/26/2023 at 12:45 PM, Sports Guy said:

I had a back and forth with this guy on Twitter and he was making some good points about Frazier. One thing in particular is how similar he is to Merrifield in terms of statcast yet Merrifield has a 352 BABiP and 295 BA.

Now, Frazier has a high FB/HR% (relative to his career) and his IFFB% is very low, so he has had his share of some luck too.

But guys like this, players who put the ball in play, can have good things happen to them but they need to “get lucky” to get a lot of hits because they don’t hit it hard all over the field. They need to “find holes”. 
 

That said, it’s probably fair to say that Frazier’s current BA is a bit unlucky and we should expect to see it get higher.

OTOH, it wouldn’t shock me if the slugging got worse and other batted ball stats normalize some. 
 

His xBA of 280 is good to see but I don’t think it’s representative of a BA I would expect to see him end up with.

This is a good post and I applaud you for posting it even though you’re not much of a Frazier fan.  It’s important to look at things from both sides.  

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He showed last night why I prefer him here over Mateo, if it comes down to only having one or the other, which it should because of Ortiz but it doesn’t seem like they are going to go in that direction.

He also showed why you want him on the bench late in a game and not in the field all the time. His range has decreased sharply.

[Aristotelian]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would be pretty shocked if Mateo was here next year, unless he shows he can play multiple positions.

Isn't that his raison d'etre? I guess I wouldn't be surprised either way. 

[glenn__davis]

47 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He also showed why you want him on the bench late in a game and not in the field all the time. His range has decreased sharply.

Yeah, obviously the HR at the end was awesome but I'd love to replay that game with Westburg at 2B and see what happens.  Thought there were multiple balls at 2nd that i thought he could have got to. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by glenn__davis

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

Yeah, obviously the HR at the end was awesome but I'd love to replay that game with Westburg at 2B and see what happens.  Thought there were multiple balls at 2nd that i thought he could have got to. 

Or Ortiz. Both I think make a couple of those plays Frazier was unable to.

[seak05]

I’d love to see an infield of ortiz (ss), westburg (2b) and Henderson (3b). Frazier is fine as a sub & lh hitter off the bench. Mateo would even be fine in the Ryan mckenna bench role (assuming he can play a plus def of in addition to inf)

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I’d love to see an infield of ortiz (ss), westburg (2b) and Henderson (3b). Frazier is fine as a sub & lh hitter off the bench. Mateo would even be fine in the Ryan mckenna bench role (assuming he can play a plus def of in addition to inf)

I don't begrudge for having affinity for Joey Ortiz. But to be honest, I am much more looking forward to a future infield that includes Jackson Holliday. Both of them are guys on the smaller side. But Holliday's bat looks special. I don't see that with Ortiz.

[forphase1]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't begrudge for having affinity for Joey Ortiz. But to be honest, I am much more looking forward to a future infield that includes Jackson Holliday. Both of them are guys on the smaller side. But Holliday's bat looks special. I don't see that with Ortiz.

Holiday is likely the future.  But Ortiz could help us NOW, not just a year or two from now.  

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Holiday is likely the future.  But Ortiz could help us NOW, not just a year or two from now.  

Anything COULD happen. I see Ortiz as aa possible marginal upgrade to Mateo. I see Holliday as a huge upgrade. I also don't see it taking Holliday two more years to help us. He COULD be better than both Ortiz and Mateo right now, especially offensively.

[forphase1]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Anything COULD happen. I see Ortiz as aa possible marginal upgrade to Mateo. I see Holliday as a huge upgrade. I also don't see it taking Holliday two more years to help us. He COULD be better than both Ortiz and Mateo right now, especially offensively.

First, Ortiz is a large upgrade over Mateo.  Mateo is completely lost at the plate, and has been for 2 months.  Just about anyone would be an upgrade with the bat.  Ortiz is almost as good defensively, so nothing is lost there.  Again, I'm not saying Ortiz is awesome or anything like that necessarily, but in comparison to Mateo he is.  

Second, I hope you are ready to disappointed in Holiday being on the team soon.  And I'm not even talking about his talent or ability.  I'm just talking about the way he will be promoted by the management.  I'm a HUGE advocate of bringing up the kids ASAP, including Cowser, Ortiz, etc, etc.  I'd love to see Holiday on the Os as soon as his talent shows he's ready.  But I also know that service time, draft picks and a 100 other considerations come into play, not just talent or ability.  I don't expect to see Holiday on the Os until late 2024, after his rookie year for 2025 has been secured.  So yeah, while Holiday may be able to help us this year, the chances of that actually happening are, I think, VERY close to 0%.  Therefore Ortiz it is to help us NOW. 

[Moose Milligan]

Oh boy, I love a good "He's unlucky!" argument.  Those are my favorite!

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

First, Ortiz is a large upgrade over Mateo.  Mateo is completely lost at the plate, and has been for 2 months.  Just about anyone would be an upgrade with the bat.  Ortiz is almost as good defensively, so nothing is lost there.  Again, I'm not saying Ortiz is awesome or anything like that necessarily, but in comparison to Mateo he is.  

Second, I hope you are ready to disappointed in Holiday being on the team soon.  And I'm not even talking about his talent or ability.  I'm just talking about the way he will be promoted by the management.  I'm a HUGE advocate of bringing up the kids ASAP, including Cowser, Ortiz, etc, etc.  I'd love to see Holiday on the Os as soon as his talent shows he's ready.  But I also know that service time, draft picks and a 100 other considerations come into play, not just talent or ability.  I don't expect to see Holiday on the Os until late 2024, after his rookie year for 2025 has been secured.  So yeah, while Holiday may be able to help us this year, the chances of that actually happening are, I think, VERY close to 0%.  Therefore Ortiz it is to help us NOW. 

It sounds like you expect Ortiz to hold down SS for about a year or so (late 24)? 

If that is the case, I think we may be better served moving him now by minimize the risk of him not succeeding during that year long time period.

Maybe he is better or much better than Mateo? It would be hard not to be given how bad Mateo has been offensively for 2 months now. But a chance exists that he might not be a great/good offensive player. I would rather another team assume that risk given that he does not have a long term future here, as you described Holliday being slotted to play SS long term.

Yes we might get a bump of offense for a year if he were to replace Mateo today? But maybe we won’t? And then his value goes down as his service time is lowered and his prospect status gone. Plus another thing to consider about him is that he is almost 25. He’s kind of old for a prospect. The longer we retain him, the more of his prime that we start to eat in to. 

I think that he deserves his shot, I just don’t see it here with all of the young INF talent that we possess within the org.