Joey Ortiz 2023

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

The idea is that there could be more total value from Ortiz at SS and Gunnar at 3B than vice versa. Pipeline says this about Joey:

Sounds like that was written a couple of years ago, in which case he has outperformed even that write-up. He's a blue chip defensive shortstop, which makes him one of the best defenders in baseball.

I don't want to put a ceiling on Gunnar because he has done nothing but smash through them for years now, but if you asked me a month ago, I wouldn't have described Gunnar as having range or hands like that. What does stand out about Gunnar is his arm. And even though he's about average fast for a shortstop, he would be very fast for a third baseman. So I think if his responsibilities were covering the line/charging balls--and in both cases whipping the ball across the diamond--he could be a GG third baseman. Could he do that at short? Seems less likely to me than both him doing that at third or Joey doing that at short. Could Joey be a GG 3B? Probably, but it's much better to have a GG SS.

And none of this is even talking about Jackson Holliday or Jorge Mateo. If Ortiz/Holliday/Mateo didn't exist, then there would be present and future need at short, and Gunnar playing there would be an obvious choice. But they do have those guys. And if Gunnar is eventually going to be moved to third, I think it pays to assign a player their position and let them settle.

I'm assuming that the O's plan to keep Joey. Keith Law ranked him as a top-35 prospect a few days ago. You don't trade that imo. An infield of 1B Mayo 2B Holliday 3B Gunnar SS Ortiz has a very high defensive ceiling.

All that being said, Gunnar emerging in the field recently is a joy to watch and this is an awesome problem to have.

Another thing to consider regarding the comparison of Ortiz to Gunnar and Holliday and Henderson are their ages. Ortiz is most likely at the point of his peak years at age 25. Holliday is still a teenager and Gunnar is only 22. In other words, at the age of 25 how much better are Gunnar/Holliday likely to be to what we are seeing from Ortiz at AAA right now in his age 25 season?

[Alasdaire]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Mateo should not be a factor now let alone for future consideration in terms of how you handle Gunnar. IMO Gunnar is obviously the most talented of our org infielders (probably along with Holliday though Gunnar's ceiling may be a bit higher). I see no reason not to allow Gunnar to stay at SS until he shows that he cannot handle.

What basis do you have to arrive at this conclusion other than having fallen in love with what you've seen from Gunnar these past few weeks?

Also it seems a bit hypocritical to say that the focus should be on this year and not long-term and then ignore Mateo's existence. Mateo is on the roster whether you like it or not. And it's pretty clear the coaches considers Mateo the best shortstop right now.

The point is that in another reality where those guys don't exist, there's genuinely no reason to move Gunnar because he fills a need now and in the future. But in this reality, there are perfectly good reasons to do it.

And besides, Gunnar is not holding down short like you're making it out. He's being moved back and forth. I'm suggesting that they pick one spot and that third makes more sense both now and probably in the future.

[Bemorewins]

By any objective standard (all professional analysis), their stats, and baseball playing abilities Gunnar Henderson is inarguably the MUCH BETTER baseball player than either Mateo or Ortiz. That's not even a legit argument. Gunnar's athletic ceiling is probably a little higher than Holliday though he is 2 1/2 years older (Holliday is still growing and developing as most teenagers still are).

I didn't fall in love with Henderson the last few weeks, though I have enjoyed and loved what I have seen from him. I believed the game of baseball when it ranked him as it's # 1 prospect entering the season. (Just as I similarly but into the talents and potential of Holliday partly because of this.) It is not very often where so many objective talent evaluators get it that wrong.

When I make observations/opinions about players I consider the total package of skills BOTH offensively and defensively when doing so. I am not  just talking about who is the best defender at the position. If so, that would probably lean Mateo/Ortiz slightly. But the player's offensive contributions have to be considered. This IMO opinion is what made Ripken Jr and ARod so great and why I would take them in a New York minute over a player like Ozzie Smith.

You say that Gunnar is not "holding down" SS right now. But he is getting the most starts there. Yes he is still being moved back and forth (a move that I don't agree with or feel is necessary). I want Mateo to succeed and love all of his other skills except for his batting. But since hitting is 50% of the game and because he is so poor at it, IMO it doesn't make sense to give him much playing time there because Gunnar appears to be a very good defensive SS and a vastly more talented/better batter. 

[Alasdaire]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

When I make observations/opinions about players I consider the total package of skills BOTH offensively and defensively when doing so. I am not  just talking about who is the best defender at the position. If so, that would probably lean Mateo/Ortiz slightly. But the player's offensive contributions have to be considered. This IMO opinion is what made Ripken Jr and ARod so great and why I would take them in a New York minute over a player like Ozzie Smith.

Why? You would willingly choose to play someone who is worse at the position because they're a better hitter?

Also, if Gunnar plays short, who is the third baseman? Unlike Gunnar who got time at third for years in the minors, Joey has hardly played any 3B. Westburg? Urias? Suboptimal. And we don't know how Jackson will do there. It just creates a problem that would be solved by putting Gunnar at third and letting the better defenders (Mateo/Ortiz) play there now and if Ortiz doesn't stick put Holliday there.

[Bemorewins]

55 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Why? You would willingly choose to play someone who is worse at the position because they're a better hitter?

Also, if Gunnar plays short, who is the third baseman? Unlike Gunnar who got time at third for years in the minors, Joey has hardly played any 3B. Westburg? Urias? Suboptimal. And we don't know how Jackson will do there. It just creates a problem that would be solved by putting Gunnar at third and letting the better defenders (Mateo/Ortiz) play there now and if Ortiz doesn't stick put Holliday there.

It appears that we view the game and therefore value players differently. I weight the value of position players 50/50. 50% offense and 50% defense. Thus IMO there is no way that I would want to play a player as offensively challenged as Mateo on a regular basis. He is a negative value with the bat in his hand therefor IMO the net difference defensively between he and Gunnar would have to be vast (which it is not) in order to justify playing him at SS over Gunnar. 

As far as the infield is concerned and longer term alignment (next season and beyond) if the O’s chose to play Holliday at SS over Gunnar that is fine as long as he is the clear better candidate. However, it may be that he is not. And if that is the case, I probably can envision Holliday at 2B if Westburg is kept to man 3B. If Ortiz is kept, Holliday may go to 3B and Ortiz to 2B (or vice versa).

Either I anchor my best/most talented players (Henderson and Holliday) and staff around that. Not the other way around. I just don’t see rational justification of having TWO back to back #1 prospects at the sport at one position and then moving both off of the position in order to accommodate a much lesser player/talent. That doesn’t make any rational sense to me.

[Alasdaire]

14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It appears that we view the game and therefore value players differently. I weight the value of position players 50/50. 50% offense and 50% defense. Thus IMO there is no way that I would want to play a player as offensively challenged as Mateo on a regular basis. He is a negative value with the bat in his hand therefor IMO the net difference defensively between he and Gunnar would have to be vast (which it is not) in order to justify playing him at SS over Gunnar. 

As far as the infield is concerned and longer term alignment (next season and beyond) if the O’s chose to play Holliday at SS over Gunnar that is fine as long as he is the clear better candidate. However, it may be that he is not. And if that is the case, I probably can envision Holliday at 2B if Westburg is kept to man 3B. If Ortiz is kept, Holliday may go to 3B and Ortiz to 2B (or vice versa).

Either I anchor my best/most talented players (Henderson and Holliday) and staff around that. Not the other way around. I just don’t see rational justification of having TWO back to back #1 prospects at the sport at one position and then moving both off of the position in order to accommodate a much lesser player/talent. That doesn’t make any rational sense to me.

I think we're just approaching it from different angles. Seems like your starting point is that Henderson is proving he can play shortstop, and given that we obviously know he can hit, you've locked down a high-leverage position and figure it out from there.

My starting point is that I'm trying to project what the optimal defensive infield would look like and not just a good/serviceable one. Gunnar's toolset suggests to me that he would be an elite 3B, whereas I'm not (yet) convinced he would be an elite SS. Ortiz, Mateo, and Holliday are relevant to this discussion in that their ability to play SS means there's nothing stopping them from moving Gunnar to what I think is his optimal position.

In the end, I think neither of us will get our way this year as Hyde clearly values Mateo, which means Gunnar will keep bouncing back and forth to allow Jorge time at SS.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

I think we're just approaching it from different angles. Seems like your starting point is that Henderson is proving he can play shortstop, and given that we obviously know he can hit, you've locked down a high-leverage position and figure it out from there.

My starting point is that I'm trying to project what the optimal defensive infield would look like and not just a good/serviceable one. Gunnar's toolset suggests to me that he would be an elite 3B, whereas I'm not (yet) convinced he would be an elite SS. Ortiz, Mateo, and Holliday are relevant to this discussion in that their ability to play SS means there's nothing stopping them from moving Gunnar to what I think is his optimal position.

In the end, I think neither of us will get our way this year as Hyde clearly values Mateo, which means Gunnar will keep bouncing back and forth to allow Jorge time at SS.

Everything that you say sounds reasonable.

IMO the 230+ ABs that Mateo has gotten this season have showed a player with poor batting skills. (An OPS barely .600) Whatever he can do with the glove does not make up for how much he does not do with the bat. 

I'm glad that the O's have cut his playing time, but IMO they are hesitant to pull the plug or conclude that his negative value with the bat is not worth him keeping around.

I was happy as anyone that he finally drove a ball with some authority yesterday. But it had been like almost 3 months since he had done that. That is not an acceptable output/performance for a Major League player.

[Tony-OH]

On 7/23/2023 at 3:41 PM, Bemorewins said:

Mateo should not be a factor now let alone for future consideration in terms of how you handle Gunnar. IMO Gunnar is obviously the most talented of our org infielders (probably along with Holliday though Gunnar's ceiling may be a bit higher). I see no reason not to allow Gunnar to stay at SS until he shows that he cannot handle. I'm a firm believer in building your team around your best/most talented players and staffing out from there. Gunnar looks like a future superstar player. The only other INF with that kind of potential may be Holliday.

IMO Gunnar should be given as many consistent reps as possible so that he can continue to grow into the position. Obviously Holliday will be given a place in the INF as well. As far as who mans, the other spot it could be Ortiz or Westburg? But neither is nearly as important to the success of the franchise as the first two IMO.

The reason you push Gunnar back to 3B is because Ortiz is the more consistent SS and Gunnar will be a plus a defensive 3B as well. With those two on the left side, that's a lot of range. 

The best infield we can put on the field right now in my opinion is Henderson-3B, Ortiz-SS, and Westburg at 2B with Urias as the utility guy.

Saying that, I'm ok with Henderson at SS right now and if they traded Ortiz, I'd be ok going forward as the team's SS. Henderson is a big guy, but he's very athletic and clearly the arm is pretty special. The issue with Gunnar defensively has always been throwing accuracy at times but most of these guys with big arms have that on occasion.

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[emmett16]

3 for 4 tonight.  .345 BA .963 OPS.  The man can hit.  Cannot wait for the Henderson, Ortiz, Westburg IF 

[Gurgi]

Just hit a three run shot out to left field.  

[Paul in Virginia]

2 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Just hit a three run shot out to left field.  

 

 

[emmett16]

5 for 7 on the day in the double header.  Batting .358.  Let’s stop simply calling this guy a slick fielder.  Dude flat out rakes.  He’s not peppering the ball around the field either. Hit his 22nd double of the year - have a chance to overtake Norby for doubles on the season with quite a bit fewer ABs.  

Edited August 3, 2023 by emmett16

[Alasdaire]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

5 for 7 on the day in the double header.  Batting .358.  Let’s stop simply calling this guy a slick fielder.  Dude flat out rakes.  He’s not peppering the ball around the field either. Hit his 22nd double of the year - have a chance to overtake Norby for doubles on the season with quite a bit fewer ABs.  

If you exclude his hodgepodge ABs in Baltimore and only consider his AAA numbers, he has the highest OPS in our entire system so far as I can tell.

Higher batting average than Holliday and slugging percentage than Mayo if you look at their numbers on the year versus Joey's at AAA.

[baltfan]

What is killing him is the Orioles reluctance to get nothing for Mateo.  Trade deadline has passed.  They would just have to release him to my understanding. Mateo needs to step in the Ubaldo pothole.