For The Times they are a'Changin

[geschinger]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Okay, it would take a VERY FAR leap and some serious orange colored glasses to Cowser, Heston, Ortiz or Norby being on par as a prospect to Grayson, Gunnar, or Adley. Like those 3 guys flirted with or where the #1 prospect in baseball at a time. Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz, or Norby are NO WHERE close to that. Cowser is curently highest rated in the mid 30's on top 100 lists. They are the type of players that are used to supplement a major league roster or use as trade chips in a package to acquire the missing piece. They in and of themselves are not the type of players who are organization cornerstones.

The guys you mention were second-tier guys - guys that are you describe although I think some are more than supplemental to a roster - I think a couple of them could be solid MLB regulars.  Although odds are still low, it is guys like Bassalo that are super young I think have the potential to make big jumps. 

The new regime seems to do a decent job developing hitters.  The one thing that stood out to me about Gunnar's ascension was his BB rate.  There are quite a few players in the system with enough talent that I think if can make similar improvements in approach could potentially take off.  For example, while it's still too early to say it's anything real and not just a hot streak the fact that Willems has already walked half as many times in ~50 PA (7) as he did in ~250 PA (14) gives me optimism he'll make a big jump this year and be an Orioles top ten prospect.

51 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

As far as Manny goes, no I don't think that the second contract that he signed with the Padres was smart for them and will end up working out in the end. But I admire them for showing good faith to their fans in terms of trying to being a World Series to San Diego. IF we would have signed Machado to an extension proactively, like all of the the other good orgs do, he would have eventually walked. But not before we would have gotten all or at least most of his best years and he would have become an Orioles Hall of Famer with his number being out in LF with the others.

If he would have been amenable to signing an extension when we was with the Orioles initially and the Orioles chose not to do it that is cheap / dumb.

I hope the Orioles never consider giving out huge long term contracts to players "to show good faith".  I'm not a fan of GMs taking the approach Preller is taking to give the Padres a year or two window at the expense of potentially half a decade or more of misery when these guys are in their mid 30s.  Give me the Astros approach instead every time.  

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, geschinger said:

The guys you mention were second-tier guys - guys that are you describe although I think some are more than supplemental to a roster - I think a couple of them could be solid MLB regulars.  Although odds are still low, it is guys like Bassalo that are super young I think have the potential to make big jumps. 

The new regime seems to do a decent job developing hitters.  The one thing that stood out to me about Gunnar's ascension was his BB rate.  There are quite a few players in the system with enough talent that I think if can make similar improvements in approach could potentially take off.  For example, while it's still too early to say it's anything real and not just a hot streak the fact that Willems has already walked half as many times in ~50 PA (7) as he did in ~250 PA (14) gives me optimism he'll make a big jump this year and be an Orioles top ten prospect.

If he would have been amenable to signing an extension when we was with the Orioles initially and the Orioles chose not to do it that is cheap / dumb.

I hope the Orioles never consider giving out huge long term contracts to players "to show good faith".  I'm not a fan of GMs taking the approach Preller is taking to give the Padres a year or two window at the expense of potentially half a decade or more of misery when these guys are in their mid 30s.  Give me the Astros approach instead every time.  

I'm with you in that I prefer what the Astros and Braves have done/are doing. But even that requires spending serious money. I just don't think that the Rays way of doing things are all that repeatable for us. In that it requires churning out elite pitching on a consistent basis. I haven't seen anything that says we can or even are trying to do such a thing.

[geschinger]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I'm with you in that I prefer what the Astros and Braves have done/are doing. But even that requires spending serious money. I just don't think that the Rays way of doing things are all that repeatable for us. In that it requires churning out elite pitching on a consistent basis. I haven't seen anything that says we can or even are trying to do such a thing.

To sustain it, yes the Braves and Astros are now spending above what the Orioles have done.  But they did so only *after* winning a WS and collecting all the extra revenue.  They were spending no more than the Orioles have spent recently (mid 2010s) to get there.  

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, owknows said:

Some interesting observations for this admittedly young 2023 season...

Looking at the top 4 teams by record in all of Baseball..

2 are from the AL and 2 from the NL....

All are in the bottom half of the league in team payroll.

3 of them are in the bottom 4 teams in payroll in all of baseball.

Pittsburgh (27th of 30 teams in payroll) is 16-7

Milwaukee (20th of 30 teams in payroll) is 15-7

Tampa Bay (28th of 30 teams in payroll) is 19-3

And your Baltimore Orioles (29th of 30 teams in payroll) are 14-7

I'm going to need more than three weeks of a season to declare anything has changed.

[Bemorewins]

I thought the Braves signed an extension or 2 before? But if not, no big deal.

If our willingness to spend will be tied to winning a WS, then we need to be doing everything we can to improve the odds it will take to get that done. If true, this makes me even more of a proponent of making deals by the deadline.

[emmett16]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Being  a Free Agent in their 30's didn't  seem to matter this passed off season.

Sure it did.  Read my original post pointing out that only the Uber FAs get a big deal.  The avg.  FA couldn’t get work.  

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Sure it did.  Read my original post pointing out that only the Uber FAs get a big deal.  The avg.  FA couldn’t get work.  

OK, give me a hint.  Where is your original post.  There are 11 pages here.  I will read it if I can find it.

Who do you think was a good FA that did not get signed?

[btdart20]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I just don't think that the Rays way of doing things are all that repeatable for us. In that it requires churning out elite pitching on a consistent basis.

You've said this a few times.  I don't buy that constantly churning out elite pitching is a key to Tampa's success.  

Since 2007 when they picked David Price at 1.1, they have drafted Taylor Guerrieri, Jeff Ames, Blake Snell, Grayson Garvin, Ryne Stanek, Brendan McKay, Matthew Liberatore, and Nick Bitsko in the first round.  (Shane McClanahan was the 31st pick.)  8 pitchers in 16 years of top 30 picks (9 if we include Shane Mc).  Guerrieri, Ames, and Garvin are done.  Stanek is a journeyman bullpen guy.  McKay has been an injury and a trainwreck.  Liberatore was traded to the Cardinals and seems to be doing solid in 2023 after an off 2022.  Bitsko didn't pitch at all in 2020, 2021, and nothing yet in 2023 either.  Only McClanahan is a success at this point (1 out of 9 success rate).  If Elias has a 1 out of 9 success rate when he had a bare cupboard to begin with, his tenure would be over.

It seems that their success has been more due to scouting/trading for pitching over-compensating for drafting/developing SP misses.  Being willing to trade fan favorites, not being attached to players when they are at a high point (being willing to miss out on higher achievements), incrementally improving the entire 26-man roster, taking big swings at big trades when there's an opportunity, defense up the middle/Franken-defense with bats elsewhere, or rotating players through the positions/PAs like they do to maximize player success...  Not a ton of teams would have plugged a guy with Yandy Diaz's build at leadoff or find a way to get Ramirez/B.Lowe PAs despite their bad defense (and working in Paredes because of his good defense).

If you want to cite Cleveland or Houston as constantly churning out elite pitching, then maybe you've got a case to be made.  Cleveland has 3 current starters and 2 injured starters all from the draft.  Houston as 4 international signees and 1 drafted starter in their rotation.

[owknows]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm going to need more than three weeks of a season to declare anything has changed.

Yeah... said so myself.

But it's an interesting observation. And kinda fun to talk about it.

And if I wait until it's looking like a certainty.. it kinda takes the fun out of the prognostication.

[emmett16]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

OK, give me a hint.  Where is your original post.  There are 11 pages here.  I will read it if I can find it.

Who do you think was a good FA that did not get signed?

Sorry - didn’t realize there were 11 pages was responding to notifications.   The massive contracts from the  DeGroms, Verlanders, Boegarts, etc. sckew the average.  
 

By my count* there were 15 contracts given out above $25MM (total value) to players ages 31 y/o or older.  Of those 15 are some pretty big names.  

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I thought the Braves signed an extension or 2 before? But if not, no big deal.

If our willingness to spend will be tied to winning a WS, then we need to be doing everything we can to improve the odds it will take to get that done. If true, this makes me even more of a proponent of making deals by the deadline.

They may have.  I was strictly referring to their overall payrolls being at levels equal or less to what the Orioles were spending in the mid 2010s.  We don't need them to get to spending level out of character with past behavior to successfully implement a Houston/ATL approach.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

You've said this a few times.  I don't buy that constantly churning out elite pitching is a key to Tampa's success.  

Since 2007 when they picked David Price at 1.1, they have drafted Taylor Guerrieri, Jeff Ames, Blake Snell, Grayson Garvin, Ryne Stanek, Brendan McKay, Matthew Liberatore, and Nick Bitsko in the first round.  (Shane McClanahan was the 31st pick.)  8 pitchers in 16 years of top 30 picks (9 if we include Shane Mc).  Guerrieri, Ames, and Garvin are done.  Stanek is a journeyman bullpen guy.  McKay has been an injury and a trainwreck.  Liberatore was traded to the Cardinals and seems to be doing solid in 2023 after an off 2022.  Bitsko didn't pitch at all in 2020, 2021, and nothing yet in 2023 either.  Only McClanahan is a success at this point (1 out of 9 success rate).  If Elias has a 1 out of 9 success rate when he had a bare cupboard to begin with, his tenure would be over.

It seems that their success has been more due to scouting/trading for pitching over-compensating for drafting/developing SP misses.  Being willing to trade fan favorites, not being attached to players when they are at a high point (being willing to miss out on higher achievements), incrementally improving the entire 26-man roster, taking big swings at big trades when there's an opportunity, defense up the middle/Franken-defense with bats elsewhere, or rotating players through the positions/PAs like they do to maximize player success...  Not a ton of teams would have plugged a guy with Yandy Diaz's build at leadoff or find a way to get Ramirez/B.Lowe PAs despite their bad defense (and working in Paredes because of his good defense).

If you want to cite Cleveland or Houston as constantly churning out elite pitching, then maybe you've got a case to be made.  Cleveland has 3 current starters and 2 injured starters all from the draft.  Houston as 4 international signees and 1 drafted starter in their rotation.

You misunderstood what I was saying. It’s not about WHERE the pitchers were drafted for them. It’s about WHAT they have gotten them to produce… Price and Shields were the first of MANY for them that right now are headlined with McClanahan and maybe Baz. But they have done that time after time after time. Just look at where they have ranked in pitching year after year for the last 15+ seasons. That can’t be an accident or luck. They have shown that they don’t need to draft at the top of the draft to produce top pitchers consistently.

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

In the mid 2010s the O's spent most of their money on players salaries.  They had not international player scouting, no analytics,  and not the player development staff they have now.  All those things cost money.  So I question if the O's can spend of those items as they are now and also spend like they did on players salaries in the 2010s with the owners desire for profits.    

That is why the Tampa model works for the O's.

Tampa's model includes extending pre-arbitration players, so maybe Baltimore is doing the Oakland model.  I hope the O's don't follow the Oakland model too closely because it includes a move to another city.

[owknows]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Tampa's model includes extending pre-arbitration players, so maybe Baltimore is doing the Oakland model.  I hope the O's don't follow the Oakland model too closely because it includes a move to another city.

Maybe they're creating the Orioles model.