Orioles offer BRob 3yr 30 million

[DrungoHazewood]

Brian Roberts is not worth 3/30 in my book. The stats I think are important are revealing. I can't believe AM would offer that much. I'd go 3/20 at the most. I'm not surprised his value is down and that we haven't been able to trade him for what we've wanted in return. He's overrated.

I love him to death and think he adds intangible value to this team. Still, business is business.

.296

9 HR

57 RBI

40

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

2008 155 611 107 181 51 8 9 57 275 82 104 40 10 .378 .450 .296

Career 975 3858 619 1095 262 32 61 364 1604 438 562 226 57 .355 .416 .284

That's like saying that you wouldn't offer Ryan Howard any more than a couple $million in arbitration because he only hit .251 and stole one base last year.

[Mark Carver]

Brian Roberts is not worth 3/30 in my book. The stats I think are important are revealing. I can't believe AM would offer that much. I'd go 3/20 at the most. I'm not surprised his value is down and that we haven't been able to trade him for what we've wanted in return. He's overrated.

I love him to death and think he adds intangible value to this team. Still, business is business.

Overrated? Why because the Orioles 7-8-9 hitters sucked and didn't get on base for him to drive them in?

Amongst AL #1 Hitters

181 H = 2nd

51 2B = 1st

57 RBI = 5th

.297 BAVG = 4th

.379 OBP = 1st

.452 SLG = 4th

.831 OPS = 5th

[DrungoHazewood]

Overrated? Why because the Orioles 7-8-9 hitters sucked and didn't get on base for him to drive them in?

Amongst AL #1 Hitters

181 H = 2nd

51 2B = 1st

57 RBI = 5th

.297 BAVG = 4th

.379 OBP = 1st

.452 SLG = 4th

.831 OPS = 5th

I think driving in 57 runs while batting behind Luis Hernandez, Brandon Fahey and Juan Castro is a pretty serious gold star for his Cooperstown candidacy.

His OPS with runners on was only about .040 points lower than Josh Hamilton, who led the American League in RBI.

[24fps]

I think that's a little over the top.

Look at Fangraphs, and their WAR and value ratings for Roberts. Over the last four years Roberts has been worth an average of 4.75 wins over replacement per season. Let's say for the sake of argument that he's at 4.5 this year, 4.0 in 2010, 3.5 in 2011, and 3.0 in 2012.

At 2008 dollar rates he's worth nearly $70M. But this is a depressed market. Let's say a win is now worth $3.5M instead of $4.5M or so. That means a 4/$52.5M contract would be pretty reasonable for 2009-2012. If you're not tearing up his '09 deal, and you assume he drops another half a win for 2013, then a 4/45 deal would be ok. Or, if you want to build in some insurance for the O's and assume that Roberts falls off more in his mid-30s you could lop off a couple more wins and come up with a 4/39 kind of deal.

If the O's are set on only a three-year deal from 2010-2012, and they are valuing wins at a lower $3.5M level, and they use the accelerated aging numbers... well, then you come up with 3/37 deal being pretty reasonable.

The only way 3/30 makes sense for Brian Roberts is if the true market value has dropped all the way to $2.85M per win (and that's using Oriole-friendly estimates of Robert's future value), after being over $4M for a number of years. You'd have to roll back baseball's revenues and expenses to about the time of the last labor problems to get to that level, and that was at a time when the sport brought in maybe 2/3rds of the $6-$6.5B in revenues expected in 2009.

3/30 is a very owner-friendly number. The only way they should have expected him to accept that would be a hometown discount, or they'd expect him to be very pessimistic about the economy's effect on baseball. If the market bounces back only part way to 2007 or 2008 levels he's worth $50M+. Same thing goes if he doesn't age quite as quickly.

Anyone who was fully invested in either equities or real estate in 2008 would be familiar with the fraction 2/3rds. I don't have a better crystal ball than anyone else when it comes to the economy over the next 12-18 months, but personally I'm pessimistic. I can't help but think that uncertainty is also weighing on the minds of team ownership across the board except maybe for the Yankees.

Add to that the sluggish demand for Roberts at the moment, and I don't think it's a lowball offer at all.

If I were Roberts, I'd take the offer, but on the condition that the contract was indexed for inflation over it's life. That might be a lot more useful than an NTC.

[DrungoHazewood]

Anyone who was fully invested in either equities or real estate in 2008 would be familiar with the fraction 2/3rds. I don't have a better crystal ball than anyone else when it comes to the economy over the next 12-18 months, but personally I'm pessimistic. I can't help but think that uncertainty is also weighing on the minds of team ownership across the board except maybe for the Yankees.

Add to that the sluggish demand for Roberts at the moment, and I don't think it's a lowball offer at all.

If I were Roberts, I'd take the offer, but on the condition that the contract was indexed for inflation over it's life. That might be a lot more useful than an NTC.

I don't know if I'd call it a lowball offer, but almost all of the underlying assumptions you'd use to arrive at that number would be slanted towards the front office. Either that or the front office spent about ten seconds coming up with a number they'd be more than happy to put on a contract and didn't bother with the assumptions.

I don't know that an inflation-indexed contract would be allowed, but if I were Roberts I'd just hold out for the chance at a much bigger paycheck following this season.

[Sports Guy]

Why do you have so much faith in draft picks. Yes' date=' Wieters appears to have been a home run but it will be a while before we know what we have in Matusz and many other early draft picks have yielded nothing. Ok, we'd all like to think we have better scouting now, but the draft will always be a high-risk gamble. Roberts is a better bet.[/quote']

I just don't like the outlook for BRob in 2011 and beyond.

While I wouldn't do it, I would be ok with a 2 year deal...I think he will be fine in 2010 but below average in 2011...I could deal with that for 2011 but don't want to deal with for 2012 and potentially 2013 as well.

I know AM has tried/been trying to deal BRob, so not dealing him THIS OFFSEASON will not be at the feet of AM unless he has passed up a decent but not great deal(ie better than picks).

[RShack]

But this is a depressed market. Let's say a win is now worth $3.5M instead of $4.5M or so.

Tangential question:

That number about how much a win is worth...

I'm assuming they are wins above replacement. How many wins does a replacement team have?

To put it another way, when you use that figure, how much payroll is a 100-W team supposed to be worth?

[DrungoHazewood]

Tangential question:

That number about how much a win is worth...

I'm assuming they are wins above replacement. How many wins does a replacement team have?

To put it another way, when you use that figure, how much payroll is a 100-W team supposed to be worth?

Replacement level is a kind of abstract concept, but the number is usually pegged at something like 40-50 wins. Around a .300 winning percentage.

So if you took an expansion team that was essentially replacement level and wanted to transform it overnight into a 100-win team you'd have to sign about $200M/year in contracts. If 12 or 15 top free agents were available and you could somehow win all of the bidding wars.

In reality a team has many players who don't have the service time required for either arbitration or free agency, so they play for a tiny fraction of their free market value. Brian Roberts has been worth something like $90M over the course of his career, but has been paid less than $20M.

Anyway, here's a better explanation than what I can give.

[Fan4Life]

Tangential question:

That number about how much a win is worth...

I'm assuming they are wins above replacement. How many wins does a replacement team have?

To put it another way, when you use that figure, how much payroll is a 100-W team supposed to be worth?

Replacement level is a kind of abstract concept, but the number is usually pegged at something like 40-50 wins. Around a .300 winning percentage.

So if you took an expansion team that was essentially replacement level and wanted to transform it overnight into a 100-win team you'd have to sign about $200M/year in contracts. If 12 or 15 top free agents were available and you could somehow win all of the bidding wars.

In reality a team has many players who don't have the service time required for either arbitration or free agency, so they play for a tiny fraction of their free market value. Brian Roberts has been worth something like $90M over the course of his career, but has been paid less than $20M.

Anyway, here's a better explanation than what I can give.

Baltimoron posted 48 wins as being a RL team. Interesting in that to get to 82 wins, you'd need to average 1.36 WAR (34 wins) per player which would bring your payroll over $130M. which doesn't seem to correlate correctly.

[blueberryale77]

I think the upshot of this thread, and the disjointed, half-assed attempt at contract negotiations by both sides, is that Brian Roberts, the Orioles' fans, and the Orioles' front office have been together in a bad situation for too long. He needs and deserves a change of scenery. The fans deserve a team that doesn't make them hate even their good players. The folks in the warehouse deserve a swift kick in the pants, to be repeated constantly until they give us a winning record.

[Mackus]

Baltimoron posted 48 wins as being a RL team. Interesting in that to get to 82 wins, you'd need to average 1.36 WAR (34 wins) per player which would bring your payroll over $130M. which doesn't seem to correlate correctly.

$130M wouldn't be the amount of money a .500 team should pay. What it would mean is that if you have a team of nothing but replacement players one year, and decide the next year you are gonna get rid of them and go out and get enough FAs to be a .500 team, you'd likely have to go out and spend roughly $130M to get enough WAR to get up to 81 (~33 WAR or so).

[OnlyO'sFanInLV]

I say thats a fair enough deal considering pedrioa (dustin) only got a 6 yr 40 something deal and he is a lot younger and also the mvp so coming too free agency next season why should he get more especially if he doesnt have the greatest season this year i think the 3/30 is a nice contract

[Mackus]

I say thats a fair enough deal considering pedrioa (dustin) only got a 6 yr 40 something deal and he is a lot younger and also the mvp so coming too free agency next season why should he get more especially if he doesnt have the greatest season this year i think the 3/30 is a nice contract

Ugh, I really wish people would stop comparing those contracts. Pedroia essentially got $11M a year for 2 years, 4 years down the road. The first 4 years of his deal he'll only make a small fraction of what he will make for the FA years they bought out. He traded the opportunity to cash in for a higher salary later for guaranteed security now and to stay with Boston.

[Fan4Life]

Ugh, I really wish people would stop comparing those contracts. Pedroia essentially got $11M a year for 2 years, 4 years down the road. The first 4 years of his deal he'll only make a small fraction of what he will make for the FA years they bought out. He traded the opportunity to cash in for a higher salary later for guaranteed security now and to stay with Boston.

Pedroia have a NTC?

[DrungoHazewood]

Ugh, I really wish people would stop comparing those contracts. Pedroia essentially got $11M a year for 2 years, 4 years down the road. The first 4 years of his deal he'll only make a small fraction of what he will make for the FA years they bought out. He traded the opportunity to cash in for a higher salary later for guaranteed security now and to stay with Boston.

Yea, people need to realize that players spend a good chunk of their careers playing for the league minimum salary, and there's nothing they can do about it. Deals buying out pre-free agency years aren't remotely comparable to deals signed on the open (or as open as MLB gets) market.