Tyler Wells 2023

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Isn’t that exactly what they tried to do in 2022?

Looking at his '22 game log, it appears he started 20 of the club's first 98 games, and exited the July 27 start with a trainer.     About half those turns were "only" 4 days rest.

It was a Grade 1 oblique strain - he missed 6 weeks and then was babied (34, 50 and 66) pitches in three September turns before the offseason.

I guess I'd characterize '22 as injury rather than ineffectiveness, but granted same difference.    First four months of '22, Wells threw about 1500 pitches to Lyles' 2000 - it was 2nd on the team as many forgettable placeholders got reps.

I think our bullpen need is greater and we're better off with him there as Irvin is cromulent for the role that vanishes in the tournament.

2022 I remember also as the "throw it down the middle" year as a not-meant-to-win Club was trying to cover 1450 innings.    I think rest and deployment in '24 with a more talented roster might be leveraged to help him last longer if the Sigbot is out on Cole Irvin.

 

[wildcard]

Elias shouldn't plan on Wells for 30 starts but he is not going to do much better than Wells for the first 15 starts.   Then they need a starter for the 2nd half.   That is what I think adding Uwasawa or whoever is all about.  

And if they can option Wells for a month or two so he eases his workload and then have him ready for the playoffs, I think that would work well.   GRod, Bradish, Means and Wells could be very good in the  playoffs.

Edited December 1, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Elias shouldn't plan on Wells for 30 starts but he is not going to do much better than Wells for the first 15 starts.   Then they need a starter for the 2nd half.   That is what I think adding Uwasawa or whoever is all about.  

And if they can option Wells for a month or two so he ease is workload and then have him ready for the playoffs, I think that would work well.   GRod, Bradish, Means and Wells could be very good in the  playoffs.

I don’t think effective pitchers get optioned just to manage their workload.  That wouldn’t sit well with the player, his teammates or the union.   The O’s could justify optioning Wells last year because his pitching had clearly fallen off a cliff.  Unless and until that happens, I just don’t see the Orioles standing Wells down.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think effective pitchers get optioned just to manage their workload.  That wouldn’t sit well with the player, his teammates or the union.   The O’s could justify optioning Wells last year because his pitching had clearly fallen off a cliff.  Unless and until that happens, I just don’t see the Orioles standing Wells down.

No doubt Elias/Hyde and the pitching coaches will monitor Wells closely.   When he starts to show signs of fatigue they can send him down.   That might be 15 starts or 20 or whatever.   The important thing is send him down before he's too fatigued and can't come back for the playoffs.  

The planning this off season should  be to have the pitching depth to pick up Wells starts in the 2nd half as well as be able to cover for Means only making 26 starts.  We can project that Means is not going to pitch 32 starts.  He never has.   But watching what they did with GRod last year they are probably  not going to limit Means to 100 innings.  GRod pitched 163 innings in the minors and majors last year after an oblique strain that only had him pitch 75 inning the year before.  Elias believes in closely monitor starters and making moves when necessary.

Edited December 1, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

No doubt Elias/Hyde and the pitching coaches will monitor Wells closely.   When he starts to show signs of fatigue they can send him down.   That might be 15 starts or 20 or whatever.   The important thing is send him down before he's too fatigued and can't come back for the playoffs.  

The planning this off season should  be to have the pitching depth to pick up Wells starts in the 2nd half as well as be able to cover for Means only making 26 starts.  We can project that Means is not going to pitch 32 starts.  He never has.   But watching what they did with GRod last year they are probably  not going to limit Means to 100 innings.  GRod pitched 163 innings in the minors and majors last year after an oblique strain that only had him pitch 75 inning the year before.  Elias believes in closely monitor starters and making moves when necessary.

I’m sure every team believes in monitoring their starters and making moves when necessary.  But they’re not going to shut down a pitcher while he’s being effective, or send him to the minors.   Maybe they’d skip a start or lower a pitch limit for a while.   

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

Great data points.  The build, stuff, and 1H results are tantalizing to dream about full-time starter, but that’s too much of consistent track record to ignore.

Agree 100%.  Same thoughts on Hall too?

Nice to have potential viable internal options this year vs completely reliant on midseason trade market which really didn’t see much *quality SPs moved (I view Verlander and Scherzer as more 1x aberrations than recurring pattern).

I've ben pretty consistent with my desire to see Hall stay as a reliever. I realize the temptation, but it's time to maximize his value out of the pen. 

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m sure every team believes in monitoring their starters and making moves when necessary.  But they’re not going to shut down a pitcher while he’s being effective, or send him to the minors.   Maybe they’d skip a start or lower a pitch limit for a while.   

If Wells is in the rotation to start the season and does as well has he did this passed year headed in to July, I think knowing that he tanks in the 2nd half plays a role.   July is an important month for how long he stays in the rotation.   Management will be watching for fatigue.

The O's are going to need a 4th starter is the playoffs.  The Wells we see perform in the 1st half would be a great playoff pitcher.  Its important for the O's to manage his innings to make him available for the playoffs. 

We could say that a starter added at the deadline could be a playoff pitcher but so far that does not seem like something the O's would want to bet on getting.

Edited December 1, 2023 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

In addition to struggles with injuries and fatigue, Wells has simply been more effective as a reliever, .531 OPS vs. .705. We saw it in the playoffs, he was lights out against a lineup that was murdering the rest of our guys. We have a need in the bullpen, especially with Bautista out. Personally I would start Wells in the bullpen and give Irvin first crack at the rotation. We could always stretch him out in the second half if Irvin is bad or Means has issues.

[SilverRocket]

Even with that rough stretch, Wells kept his season WHIP under 1.

Hyde didn't do the long reliever thing much at all this year. I wonder how much of that is due to not having the right roster for it vs a general strategic view about its effectiveness. Wells could be someone who can finish out a game where we have a small lead but the starter ran into a high pitch count, saving the bullpen for a day.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

In addition to struggles with injuries and fatigue, Wells has simply been more effective as a reliever, .531 OPS vs. .705. We saw it in the playoffs, he was lights out against a lineup that was murdering the rest of our guys. We have a need in the bullpen, especially with Bautista out. Personally I would start Wells in the bullpen and give Irvin first crack at the rotation. We could always stretch him out in the second half if Irvin is bad or Means has issues.

A 705 OPS for a starter is very good.  And starter are much harder to find than relievers.  If the O's had 5 starters better that Wells he should be a reliever.   But they don't.  And if they add someone like Uwasawa they still probably will not.

Elias is supposedly going to add a starter and reliever.  What quality is the question.

I think Hall will add to the back of the pen.

[ScGO's]

If you look at Wells whole career since being drafted, he's never really had a chance to build his innings up. In fact, this year might be the first year where his arm can actually progress towards a 150 innings season.

If he can get his HR/9 down closer to 1, he could be a solid #3 or 4 this season