Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, he didn’t make any move and we don’t even know if it’s legit.

Secondly, Lorenzen doesn’t improve the team in the playoffs, which is what Elias’ stated goal is. So yes, it would be a poor move to trade assets for a guy that doesn’t improve us when we actually need the improvement the most.

I don't have the insight into what Elias/Holt/Sig sees in Lorenzen but they probably see things that many of us do not.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't have the insight into what Elias/Holt/Sig sees in Lorenzen but they probably see things that many of us do not.

That’s great and all but the thing is, we don’t have time to work with a guy, like they did with someone like Cano.

Lorenzen has a poor K rate, doesn’t miss bats and his statcast profile is mediocre at best.

He does have a good walk rate and his HR rate, which is solid, could maybe be better here. 
 

Now, i will say that if you know Wells is coming out of the rotation and GRod eventually is to and you need an arm to pitch in Sept AND it costs next to nothing to get him, maybe you do it but under no circumstance should this be a move where you are thinking, this is an upgrade for October and again, that is Elias’ stated goal…to make the team better for the playoffs.

[dystopia]

I agree that Lorenzen is not a guy we should be targeting. 

[clapdiddy]

5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I agree that Lorenzen is not a guy we should be targeting. 

Lorenzen's numbers aren't bad.  His FIP and WHIP are pretty decent.  His walk rate is low, but his K rate is a little below what you'd like.  

All that being said, I'm not sure where this upgrades the rotation.  The only reason I could see this happening is because they are planning to move Wells to the bullpen.   

[dystopia]

11 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Lorenzen's numbers aren't bad.  His FIP and WHIP are pretty decent.  His walk rate is low, but his K rate is a little below what you'd like.  

All that being said, I'm not sure where this upgrades the rotation.  The only reason I could see this happening is because they are planning to move Wells to the bullpen.   

Or Grayson. I’m not huge on FIP. Does it actually have a track record of accurately predicting a pitcher’s future ERA? 

[HakunaSakata]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s great and all but the thing is, we don’t have time to work with a guy, like they did with someone like Cano.

Lorenzen has a poor K rate, doesn’t miss bats and his statcast profile is mediocre at best.

He does have a good walk rate and his HR rate, which is solid, could maybe be better here. 
 

Now, i will say that if you know Wells is coming out of the rotation and GRod eventually is to and you need an arm to pitch in Sept AND it costs next to nothing to get him, maybe you do it but under no circumstance should this be a move where you are thinking, this is an upgrade for October and again, that is Elias’ stated goal…to make the team better for the playoffs.

Here's the thing. Lorenzen's potentially a much cheaper version of someone like Hendricks or Stroman. And I know A LOT of folks were lobbying pretty hard for Stroman at one point.  And I get that his underlying numbers aren't the best, but it seems a bit much to try and paint a SP with a mid 3s ERA at this point in the season as someone who they need to work with. Is trading for Lorenzen a difference making kind of move? Probably not, but I don't think trading for someone like Stroman would be either. If they're going to go the rental route then I'd much rather pay for a Walmart version of Stroman than the name brand. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Here's the thing. Lorenzen's potentially a much cheaper version of someone like Hendricks or Stroman. And I know A LOT of folks were lobbying pretty hard for Stroman at one point.  And I get that his underlying numbers aren't the best, but it seems a bit much to try and paint a SP with a mid 3s ERA at this point in the season as someone who they need to work with. Is trading for Lorenzen a difference making kind of move? Probably not, but I don't think trading for someone like Stroman would be either. If they're going to go the rental route then I'd much rather pay for a Walmart version of Stroman than the name brand. 

Well first of all, I didn’t say they need to work with him.

Secondly, unless guys are getting shut down or taken out of the rotation, we just need to make better moves or don’t make any at all.

Now, $64,000 question is, what does the rotation look like in September? I do agree that you may need able bodies at that point, which makes Lorenzen less horrible. But you can’t give up much value for him. I would probably trade Stowers for him but not Norby or anyone else amongst our top 10-13 prospects.

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, I didn’t say they need to work with him.

Secondly, unless guys are getting shut down or taken out of the rotation, we just need to make better moves or don’t make any at all.

Now, $64,000 question is, what does the rotation look like in September? I do agree that you may need able bodies at that point, which makes Lorenzen less horrible. But you can’t give up much value for him. I would probably trade Stowers for him but not Norby or anyone else amongst our top 10-13 prospects.

I can't imagine it would take anyone as high in the pecking order as Stowers or Norby to get Lorenzen. 

[Emory Eagle]

I would expect that Lorenzen is a depth move, and that they are rightfully worried about covering innings given how much of the staff is exceeding their historical innings pitched marks.  I’m hopeful for another bullpen arm as well, but don’t expect much more than that given the reporting that the Os intend to be “measured buyers”.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I wonder if the interest in Lorenzen is an intentional leak by the Orioles front office to gain some leverage in talks for a different starting pitcher? Like, see we have other options…

It’s interesting because the report only says it is the Orioles with interest. If it were coming from the Tigers they would want to make it sound like many teams are interested, no? And while Lorenzen is thoroughly underwhelming he is good enough and enough teams are looking for SP that there certainly are multiple teams interested.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Emory Eagle said:

I would expect that Lorenzen is a depth move, and that they are rightfully worried about covering innings given how much of the staff is exceeding their historical innings pitched marks.  I’m hopeful for another bullpen arm as well, but don’t expect much more than that given the reporting that the Os intend to be “measured buyers”.

Here is thing to this point (which is correct)…that should then mean that Lorenzen is the second starter you get.

In other words, don’t tell me this is a depth move but then act as if he is your big deadline move to help in the playoffs.

It needs to be Lorenzen and Snell..or something like that.

[Fan4Life]

In the past when we saw "interests" posted by various sites we always considered this was a potential propaganda move to drive the price down on who we really want. This doesn't seem to be a consideration anymore. 

[Emory Eagle]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Here is thing to this point (which is correct)…that should then mean that Lorenzen is the second starter you get.

In other words, don’t tell me this is a depth move but then act as if he is your big deadline move to help in the playoffs.

It needs to be Lorenzen and Snell..or something like that.

That’s what I’d like to see as well, I just don’t expect that to be what Elias will do.  

[RVAOsFan]

10 hours ago, PHRESH said:

I have a feeling we wind up with Verlander. Don't know anything about his contract, but I imagine it would be a big hurdle. I just can't see the O's not adding an SP. There aren't really any I really want, but I feel like Elias would invite the familiarity that Verlander would bring. 

2 year 86 mil with a 3rd year option of some sort.  He didn't start the year well but has pitched well as of late.  Elias has traded for him at the  deadline before I think it is certainly possible if he thinks he has enough left in the tank.  You know money bags in NY will pay down a portion of that contract to buy some prospects.

I also think this is the exact type of pitcher you want Grod, Bradish and Kremer to learn from.

86 Million dollar question is what does Verlander have left in the tank? And will ownership buy off on it?

I am going to go hide under a rock now, away from the pitch forks coming my way with notes on them.. something about ownership and being cheap... 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, he didn’t make any move and we don’t even know if it’s legit.

Secondly, Lorenzen doesn’t improve the team in the playoffs, which is what Elias’ stated goal is. So yes, it would be a poor move to trade assets for a guy that doesn’t improve us when we actually need the improvement the most.

I get that Lorenzen isn't exciting, bad K-rate, etc. But at a certain point, the ERA and WHIP are undeniable. We'd be thrilled - thrilled - with a 3.58/1.098 performance from any of our starters. The FIP is in line with the ERA, too, so it's not all smoke and mirrors. It's basically what Wells has been doing all year, but with a worse k-rate. 

To your point, I think he would help us get to the playoffs because he props up some instability in the rotation (Wells flagging, Gibson hit or miss, Kremer hit or miss, etc), but you're right that he may not do much to help us in the playoffs. 

But ya know... Elias was never going to go get an ace IMO. If folks are clinging to that, I dunno what to tell ya. I agree he should, but it is what it is.