What kind of contract will Santander get as a free agent, assuming performance close to 2022-23 next year?

[RZNJ]

41 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

One other angle that could affect the offseason....is Austin Hays or Anthony Santander "better"?

Lot of 2023 baseball to enjoy before really digging in there.

Hate to put it this way, but just watching the games, Santander was better even when Hays was hitting.   Offensively, the OPS could be identical and I’d still take Santander 10 of 10.   Hays, of course, has more defensive value.  How much more is arguable.   If I had a choice of only one for 2024?  No contest.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Fan4Life said:

I would go to 3/42. From what I read he's looking at around $10M in arbitration next year so that's essentially 2/$32. 

He’s definitely getting more than $10 mm in arbitration.  A typical Super 2 gets a 50% raise in Arb 4, and Santander is having an above average year (for him) so he’ll probably get a bit more than that.  I figure $12.5 - $14 mm.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

I think if they put this in front of him at the end of the year and he accepted, I'd be OK with it.

Really? I like him a lot, but I don't want Tony on the team in three years, much less four. The Santander focused discussion on the board would be incredibly negative if he was one of the team's highest paid players and put up the numbers that Drungo posted. There's no way I want the Orioles to pay that kind of money for seasons of 1 and 0.5 WAR...and the board would go nuts about it. Add Kjerstad to the equation and it would be a giant dumpster fire. 

[MCO'sFan]

I went with 3/50. I think his defense hurts him a bit. But it only takes one team to bid against themselves to raise the price. Fortunately, PA is not running things to bid against himself like he did with Davis. 

[oriole]

39 minutes ago, SteveA said:

We are trying to win this year and he is one of our top 3 hitters.   Doubt they were going to trade him this year.

Yea I meant at last years deadline and last offseason.

[Just Regular]

I'm already ready for Roch to sell us on how Ownership paying a good Arb4 player a going rate for like 30% MORE!!! than Kyle Gibson....

....on a 1-year commitment, when there is a fair chance Said Player will net the Club a 2025 Comp A pick I'd guess worth about 50-75% of that 2024 outlay....

....is spectacular evidence how lucky we are.

Boras and the franchise cornerstones are going to be SO impressed!

[clapdiddy]

34 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Really? I like him a lot, but I don't want Tony on the team in three years, much less four. The Santander focused discussion on the board would be incredibly negative if he was one of the team's highest paid players and put up the numbers that Drungo posted. There's no way I want the Orioles to pay that kind of money for seasons of 1 and 0.5 WAR...and the board would go nuts about it. Add Kjerstad to the equation and it would be a giant dumpster fire. 

I didn't realize that next year will be his age 29 season.   For some reason, I thought he was younger.  

Now that I look at it in that light, I'm fine with him being here next year, but would have to let him go after that.

[OriolesMagic83]

I think that Santander will be traded in the off-season and the RF version of Frazier signed.  Waiting for the outcry from the Hangout.

[ShoelesJoe]

Assuming he's still putting up .800-ish OPS with 25-30 HR power I think he'd get the 3/$50 baseline w/incentives that would carry him to the neighborhood of 4/$75. I agreed with Frobby's comparison to the Castellanos contract, except that Santander has the advantage of being a switch hitter. Also, the Castellanos contract is an overpay mainly because in the three years between leaving Detroit and signing with the Phillies his stats were vastly inflated by playing half his games in Wrigley and the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Since signing with Philadelphia his H/A stats have continued to be extremely lopsided. Put Castellanos in a neutral ballpark and he's been pretty mediocre for the last five years. Meanwhile, Santander's splits are pretty even which should bode well for any team wanting to sign him for his age 30-35 seasons. 

[luismatos4prez]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think that Santander will be traded in the off-season and the RF version of Frazier signed.  Waiting for the outcry from the Hangout.

Hays, Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Mounty, O'Hearn, Westburg, and Stowers can compete for 1B/COF/DH ABs if Santander is traded. No need for a FA.  I'll go on the record as saying I want him back next year for about 10M, but I would not give him a multi-year deal.

[Rbiggs2525]

4@64. He can go get paid somewhere else but the pregame analytics and scouting help will not be the same everywhere else. 

[banks703]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Hate to put it this way, but just watching the games, Santander was better even when Hays was hitting.   Offensively, the OPS could be identical and I’d still take Santander 10 of 10.   Hays, of course, has more defensive value.  How much more is arguable.   If I had a choice of only one for 2024?  No contest.

This is where I am and I make that statement with Hays being my current favorite Oriole. 

[Tryptamine]

Well, if we're basing it off a player who is somewhat similar, but a bit higher up the value scale, you can look at Ian Happ's contract. He signed a 3 year extension with the Cubs right at the beginning of his last year under team control and the extension was 3/61. They have similar offensive stats over the last two years, but Happ is pretty solid defensively while fangraphs has Santander as pretty bad. So maybe Santander, if he gets to FA, gets like 4/65 or 4/70.